We’re a third of the way through the NFL season, and we’re well into the grind. As usual, DraftKings is opening contests and releasing salaries for the week ahead on Sunday evening. In the fast-changing landscape of the NFL, that leaves plenty of time for obvious value to appear.
Let’s take a look at a few players who stand out for Week 7, using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently. Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
For full access to our models, you’ll need to sign up for a FantasyLabs subscription:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Geno Smith ($5,600) Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (51.5 total)
After three consecutive 22+ point DraftKings performances, Smith returned to earth in Week 6, scoring just 12.68 against the Cardinals. That was seemingly more a result of the game script than any regression on his part though. He still completed 64.5% of his passes, but wasn’t called on to do much with the Cardinals failing to score an offensive touchdown against him.
This week features a much better game environment for the Seahawks passing attack. They’re 6.5-point underdogs against the Chargers, in the game with the slate’s highest total. This one could turn into a shootout, which would be great news for Smith and his receivers.
Smith also has some rushing upside, with two games of over 40 rushing yards on the season. That gives him a sneaky ceiling for his price, to go along with his slate-leading Pts/Sal projection.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Romeo Doubs ($5,000) Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Washington Commanders (41.5 total)
While the game environment isn’t ideal, target competition is extremely limited for Doubs. He’s already averaging over six looks per game from Aaron Rodgers, and now the Packers are set to be without Randall Cobb. Cobb has drawn an additional five targets per game (discounting his injury-shortened Week 6).
Doubs currently ranks sixth in our Pts/Sal projections, but those still reflect Cobb being active. Once we shift the target shares around, Doubs could easily end up leading that category. It’s approaching full-on panic mode for the 3-3 Packers, who may have no choice but to let Rodgers try to win games for them. Doubs would be a primary beneficiary of that game plan.
NFL DFS Running Back Values
Saquon Barkley ($7,900) New York Giants (+3) -42.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Barkley may be the last true workhorse in the NFL, injury situations excluded. Now that he’s finally fully healthy, he leads all running backs in carries and total snaps through six weeks of the season. He’s involved in the passing game as well, with more targets and catches than the number two and three backs in carries.
In years passed, we would pay well into the $9,000 range for backs with that usage and occasionally over five figures. Now, there’s even less of them to be found, but Barkley is below $8,000 on DraftKings. His Giants are slight underdogs, but the game is close enough — and his role is robust enough — for that to not be a major consideration.
He trails only Joe Mixon in Pts/Sal projection for Week 6, with a higher median and ceiling. Mixon’s role is also elite, especially considering his $7,000 price tag, making both excellent options this week.
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Evan Engram ($3,300) Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) vs. New York Giants (42.5 total)
With 32 targets on the season, Engram is quietly a top-10 tight end in that category. More importantly, 16 of those 32 targets have come in the last two weeks. The Jaguars are fairly thin at wide receiver, especially if Marvin Jones misses another game. His absence in Week 6 is part of Engram’s uptick in targets.
Still, Jones played in Week 5 — and Engram saw 10 targets that game. This week, he has a revenge game against the Giants, who never seemed able to get him going in the passing game. He’s not a high-upside play, but he is underpriced for his role.
As with most cheaper tight ends, he’s also a touchdown away from a massive (price-considered) score. He has 24 catches on the season but has yet to find the end zone. He ranks second in Pts/Sal at the position for Week 7.
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