Five weeks have come and gone, and we’re officially into the grind of the NFL season. As usual, DraftKings is opening contests and releasing salaries for the week ahead on Sunday evening. In the fast-changing landscape of the NFL, that leaves plenty of time for obvious value to appear.
Let’s take a look at a few players who stand out for Week 6, using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently. Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
For full access to our models, you’ll need to sign up for a FantasyLabs subscription:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Geno Smith ($5,700) Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (51 total)
Geno Smith’s salary is still yet to rise to the level of his production. He’s averaging over 27 points per game over the last three weeks, ranking behind only the top tier of Josh Allen ($8,200), Lamar Jackson ($8,100) and Jalen Hurts ($7,900).
Despite that, his salary is more than $2,000 cheaper, making him an obvious value heading into Week 6. He’s helped by the Seahawks defensive struggles. They’ve allowed the second most points per game in the league, forcing Seattle to stay aggressive to keep pace.
He draws a relatively soft matchup in Week 6, against a Cardinals team with a +3.2 Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks. That’s good for third on the slate. Smith is an excellent cash game quarterback, trailing only Allen and Tom Brady ($6,300) in Pts/Sal projection.
He’s also in play for GPPs, as the Seahawks concentrated passing attack makes stacking Smith with one or both of DK Metcalf ($6,800) or Tyler Lockett ($5,600) a solid choice.
They’ve combined for over 50% of the Seahawks’ targets and 75% of their air yards on the season.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Rondale Moore ($4,200) Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks (51 total)
If you wanted to add a bring-back to your Seahawks stack — or simply find a cheap cash game receiver — Moore is an excellent option. After missing the first three weeks of the season, he’s had a strong role since returning to the lineup.
He appeared to be easing back in Week 4, drawing five targets. However, his role jumped significantly last week, turning eight targets into a seven-catch, 68-yard performance. While those aren’t tournament-winning numbers, they’re very solid considering his price range.
Those games were also against considerably tougher defenses in Carolina and Philadelphia. This week he draws the Seahawks, who we’ve already mentioned as one of the league’s worst units. This game has the second-highest total on the slate, making it worth getting exposure to.
Moore is tied with the aforementioned Tyler Lockett for the lead in Pts/Sal on the slate. This is the last week for the Cardinals without target hog Deandre Hopkins though, so it could be last call on Moore.
NFL DFS Running Back Values
Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000) New England Patriots (+3) at Cleveland Browns (42.5 total)
Stevenson was popping as an excellent value last week against the Lions — and that was before Damien Harris got hurt. Stevenson and Harris had been in an effectively even timeshare to that point in the season, but now Stevenson looks to have true workhorse potential.
He had 25 carries and caught both of his targets in the Patriots’ Week 5 domination over the Lions. This week, New England is a slight underdog. While we can’t project him for the same level of volume on the ground, he drew five targets in each of the Patriots recent losses.
With targets holding even more value than carries, that could be a good thing for Stevenson. While it’s not an especially enticing matchup, getting a workhorse running back at his price point is a steal regardless of opponent.
He leads the position in both Pts/Sal and overall projection, despite checking in outside the top 15 in salary.
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Tyler Higbee ($4,600) Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (41 total)
The leader in targets at the tight end position through five weeks isn’t Travis Kelce ($7,800). Nor is it Mark Andrews ($7,000). As you might have guessed based on the heading of this section, it’s, in fact, Tyler Higbee.
While those other tight ends have outscored Higbee so far this season, that level of opportunity is far too good to pass up. He doesn’t have the red zone role of the top tier at the position, but over nine targets per game give him a rock-solid floor.
He’s also due for a bit of regression in the touchdown department, with 33 catches for 290 yards without a score. Some of that is due to the Rams’ offensive struggles in general — which may not regress any time soon — but he’s still due for a trip to the end zone.
Higbee lags behind the leaders at the position in terms of ceiling but makes up for it with a strong median projection.
He’s tied for the lead in Pts/Sal at tight end for Week 6.
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