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NFL Week 5 Fantasy RB Breakdown: Dalvin Cook to Dominate Giants

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The Week 5 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 6, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically the industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

Odds as of Thursday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models

There are five running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Dalvin Cook: $8,400 DraftKings; $8,200 FanDuel
  • Ezekiel Elliott: $8,300 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel
  • David Johnson: $7,500 DraftKings; $6,800 FanDuel
  • Phillip Lindsay: $4,900 DraftKings; $6,700 FanDuel
  • Carlos Hyde: $4,300 DraftKings; $5,600 FanDuel

Dalvin Cook: Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) at New York Giants, 44.5 Over/Under

Cook entered the season as a concern-laden player. He flashed but failed to sustain his output in two injury-impacted career-opening campaigns. But in his third NFL season, he has been forcefully fantastic.

Cook is the No. 3 fantasy running back with 22.5 FanDuel points per game, and he has been incredibly consistent on a weekly basis.

  • Week 1 (vs. Falcons): 25.0 FanDuel points, 21-111-2 rushing, 2-9-0 receiving on two targets
  • Week 2 (at Packers): 26.6 FanDuel points, 20-154-1 rushing, 3-37-0 receiving on three targets
  • Week 3 (vs. Raiders): 22.3 FanDuel points, 16-110-1 rushing, 4-33-0 receiving on five targets
  • Week 4 (at Bears): 16.0 FanDuel points, 14-35-1 rushing, 6-35-0 receiving on eight targets

Cook is No. 1 in the league with five rushing touchdowns and No. 2 with 410 rushing yards. He leads the Vikings with 15 receptions and barely trails wide receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs with his 18 targets (vs. 22 and 19).

He has scored a touchdown in each game, thanks to his explosive play-making talent and goal-line usage. When he’s not breaking off a 75-yard touchdown run (Week 2), he’s getting scores from inside the two-yard line (Weeks 3-4). Even though rookie teammate Alexander Mattison is playing a lesser version of the 2017-18 Latavius Murray role, Cook is yet to lose a single carry inside the five-yard line to Mattison.

Even last week, when the Vikings found themselves with a negative game script, Cook still had a decent fantasy day because of his pass-catching ability.

For the season, Cook has an obscene +8.88 Plus/Minus and 100% Consistency Rating on FanDuel. He is the Vikings offense.

With the offseason addition of center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Josh Kline, as well as rushing guru Gary Kubiak as an offensive advisor, the Vikings offensive line has improved significantly. In 2018, the Vikings were No. 23 with 4.09 adjusted line yards per attempt. This year, they are No. 4 with a mark of 4.91 (per Football Outsiders).

Since taking over as the offensive coordinator in Week 15 last year, Kevin Stefanski has overseen an aggressively ground-based system. In Stefanski’s seven play-calling games, the Vikings have a 50.6% run rate.

With a better offensive line and a coordinator who leans on the run, it’s no wonder that Cook is having a breakout season.

Cook is in something of a bounceback spot coming off his worst game of the year, and his matchup with the Giants is good.

Specifically, almost all of the Giants’ off-ball linebackers are injured. Rookie surprise Ryan Connelly (knee, injured reserve) suffered a season-ending injury last week. Veterans Alec Ogletree (hamstring) and Tae Davis (concussion) both missed Week 4 and are questionable for Week 5. The Giants could struggle mightily against the run and in pass defense against Cook without their top second-level defenders.

For cash games and guaranteed prize pools, Cook is definitely in play.

Also, I’m taking an against-the-spread position on the Vikings, who are favorites against a non-divisional opponent. Under head coach Mike Zimmer, the Vikings have been a profitable regular-season team to back…

  • As favorites: 31-15-1, 30.6% ROI
  • Outside of division: 38-13-1, 44.3% ROI

As non-divisional favorites, Zimmer’s Vikings are an outstanding 22-5-1, good for a nice 56.9% return on investment (per Bet Labs).

If the Vikings get out to a big lead — and I see how they could — Cook could approach 25 touches.

Cook is the No. 1 running back in the Freedman Model for FanDuel, where he has an elite 98% Bargain Rating.

Ezekiel Elliott: Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers, 46.5 O/U

Zeke has had something of a mixed season so far.

  • Week 1 (vs. Giants): 13.3 DraftKings points, 54.4% offensive snaps, 13-53-1 rushing, 1-10-0 receiving on two targets
  • Week 2 (at Redskins): 23.0 DraftKings points, 75.7% offensive snaps, 23-111-1 rushing, 2-9-0 receiving on two targets
  • Week 3 (vs. Dolphins): 18.9 DraftKings points, 66.7% offensive snaps, 19-125-0 rushing, 2-14-0 receiving on three targets
  • Week 4 (at Saints): 17.5 DraftKings points, 96.6% offensive snaps, 18-35-1 rushing, 6-30-0 receiving on seven targets

On the one hand, Zeke is the No. 9 fantasy back with 18.2 DraftKings points per game. On the other hand, he has a -3.39 Plus/Minus and 25% Consistency Rating. He has clearly underperformed expectations this year.

But his 2019 production needs to be put into context. In Weeks 1-2, he was working his way back into shape after his Cabo-located offseason holdout. In Week 3, he played sparingly in the second half of a 31-6 win as backup Tony Pollard got extra work.

And in Week 4, Zeke and the Cowboys simply sucked — but at least he played almost all the snaps, and he was No. 2 on the team in targets. For a worst-case scenario, last week was actually pretty encouraging. It showed how high Zeke’s floor is and how large of a role he still has in the offense.

I will probably die believing that the Cowboys shouldn’t have drafted Elliott No. 4 overall in the 2016 draft, but as a fantasy producer, he’s elite. Since he entered the league in 2016, only Le’Veon Bell and Saquon Barkley have averaged more DraftKings points per game than Zeke’s 21.9 (including playoffs).

In each of the past three seasons, Zeke has led the NFL in rushing yards per game with 108.7, 98.3 and 95.6. In fact, Elliott trails only Hall-of-Famers Jim Brown and Barry Sanders with his career per-game rushing average of 99.4.

So we probably shouldn’t worry too much about Zeke in Week 5, especially because he has an advantageous matchup. Even though the Packers have seriously invested in their defense via the draft and free agency over the past year, they are No. 29 with a 56.0 PFF run-defense grade.

In Week 1, no one in the Bears trio of running backs individually dominated the Packers, but they combined for 28 DraftKings points. And in Weeks 2-4, the Packers have been trashed by a series of lead backs.

  • Dalvin Cook (Week 2, away): 31.1 DraftKings points, 20-154-1 rushing, 3-37-0 receiving on three targets
  • Phillip Lindsay (Week 3, away): 29.0 DraftKings points, 21-81-2 rushing, 4-49-0 receiving on five targets
  • Jordan Howard (Week 4, away): 32.5 DraftKings points, 15-87-2 rushing, 3-28-1 receiving on four targets

In total, seven running backs have faced the Packers this year with a DraftKings salary of at least $4,000: They have averaged 18.5 points per game with an +8.05 Plus/Minus.

Basically, the Packers are more Swiss than cheddar on run defense. They have allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game to opposing backfields with 35.6 per game.

The Cowboys will be without Pro-Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith (ankle), and that’s not great. They have significantly underperformed without Smith since Zeke joined the team in 2016 (including playoffs).

  • With Smith (44 games): 24.9 points, 365.5 total yards, 8.6 offensive expected points
  • Without Smith (11 games): 18.4 points, 324.7 total yards, -2.7 offensive expected points

But I’m still not that worried: The Packers are just that bad against the run. In his three career games against the Packers, Zeke has dominated on the ground.

  • Week 6 (2016, away): 22.4 DraftKings points, 28-157-0 rushing, 2-17-0 receiving on four targets
  • Divisional Round (2016, home): 16.3 DraftKings points, 22-125-0 rushing, one reception for -2 yards on one target
  • Week 5 (2017, home): 17.2 DraftKings points, 29-116-0 rushing, 1-16-0 receiving on two targets

Zeke is the No. 1 back in the Levitan and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he is $100 cheaper than Cook and makes for an intriguing pivot play in tournaments and option in cash games.

Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: David Johnson

David Johnson: Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, 47.5 O/U

Johnson has underwhelmed this year as a runner, but he’s still No. 8 at the position with 16 FanDuel points per game. His production hasn’t always been pretty, but at least it’s been there.

  • Week 1 (vs. Lions): 22.7 FanDuel points, 18-82-0 rushing, 6-55-1 receiving on seven targets
  • Week 2 (at Ravens): 7.9 FanDuel points, 7-14-1 rushing, 1-0-0 receiving on one target
  • Week 3 (vs. Panthers): 15.5 FanDuel points, 11-37-0 rushing, 6-28-1 receiving on nine targets
  • Week 4 (vs. Seahawks): 17.9 FanDuel points, 11-40-0 rushing, 8-99-0 receiving on 11 targets

The big factor Johnson has in his favor is his pass-catching prowess. He’s No. 2 among all backs with 28 targets, and he’s No. 4 with 10.6 expected receiving fantasy points per game (per the RotoViz Screener).

He’s no longer the 2016 All-Pro compiler who had an NFL-high 373 touches, 2,118 yards and 20 touchdowns. But Johnson has been significantly more productive this year than he was last year.

  • 2019 (four games): 16.0 FanDuel points, +4.08 Plus/Minus, 75% Consistency Rating
  • 2018 (16 games): 13.9 FanDuel points, +1.18 Plus/Minus, 50% Consistency Rating

He’s still a three-down lead back who gets 18.8 opportunities per game, sees 80.9% of the offensive snaps, has 100% of the team’s backfield goal-line work and plays in a fast-paced system that leads the league with 23.9 seconds per play.

And despite coming off a top-10 positional performance against the Seahawks, he is exactly the same price he was last week: $6,800 on FanDuel.

That price is simply unfathomable. It puts him outside of the top 10 in salary, even though he’s top-five in median, ceiling and floor projections.

If you use the FantasyLabs Trends tool to sort through Johnson’s game log by salary, you’ll see that Johnson hasn’t had a FanDuel price this low — with the exception of last week — since Week 15 of his rookie season: Johnson is cheaper than he’s been on FanDuel at any point over the past 3.75 years.

As a result, Johnson is likely to be popular this weekend in cash games and tournaments — especially with his breathtakingly beautiful matchup, which Peter Jennings highlights on the Week 5 Fantasy Flex pod.

Last year, the Bengals allowed the second-most production to opposing backfields with 27.4 FanDuel points per game. This year, the Bengals have somehow gotten worse: They have allowed a league-high mark of 34.5.

The onslaught has been relentless. Basically, if a back has gotten 10 carries against the Bengals, he’s given them the Johnny Sack treatment.

Do you think Johnson is going to get 10-plus carries this weekend? Because I do.

Linebackers Nick Vigil and Preston Brown are especially to blame for the Bengals’ generosity to opposing backs. They have both been exposed on the ground and in coverage.

The Bengals are fortunate to be only No. 22 with a -3.8% run-defense DVOA. They are at their worst in the intermediate range of the field, where they rank No. 31 with 1.53 second-level yards allowed per run: Once opposing backs get 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, the Bengals linebackers have been incapable of limiting yardage.

To make matters worse, the Bengals are No. 30 against running backs with a 48.6% pass-defense DVOA. Last year, they were also No. 31 with a 22.0% mark.

On the ground or through the air, they can’t stop anyone. One of their main problems is that they have a league-worst 44.0 PFF tackling grade. Even when Bengals defenders get close to ball-carriers, they struggle to bring them down.

Vigil and Brown specifically have been among the worst defenders on the team, and that’s reflected in their PFF grades.

  • Nick Vigil: 41.8 overall, 51.5 run defense, 39.6 coverage
  • Preston Brown: 49.6 overall, 49.8 run defense, 54.0 coverage

I tend to bet the under on player props, but I might have to make an exception for the receiving props of backs facing the Bengals. Carson hit the over on his yardage prop in Week 1, as did Conner in Week 4. Books didn’t post a receiving prop for Gore in Week 3, and Breida had no reason to catch passes for the 49ers in a 41-17 victory in Week 2.

In what should be a close game, Johnson should be used regularly as a receiver.

To find the best bets in the props market, use our Player Props tool, which is powered by our industry-leading projections from Koerner. Since last year, the props with a bet quality of 10 have gone 310-166-13, good for a 63% win rate. Without question, you should supplement your DFS action with player props.

Even though the Cardinals are No. 31 with a poor 40.6 PFF run-blocking grade, Johnson will be popular in cash games and tournaments, especially on FanDuel, where he has a position-high 99% Bargain Rating and is the No. 1 back in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models.

Phillip Lindsay: Denver Broncos (+6.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 44.5 O/U

Last year, Lindsay was such an unlikely success story: A small, undrafted rookie coming from nowhere to lead his team with 1,278 yards and 10 touchdowns from scrimmage. He was second among all qualified backs with 5.4 yards per carry and was the league’s third-most north/south runner with a 3.39 Efficiency Rating (per Next Gen Stats). Few rushers last year were as explosive as he was through the line of scrimmage.

And it’s not as if his production was a fluke. Although he was undrafted, he was a good, underappreciated prospect.

  • He has good speed: He ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash at his pro day.
  • He was productive in college: Across his three seasons as a lead back, he averaged 1,450 yards and 13 touchdowns from scrimmage.
  • He is a good receiver: In college, he had a 117-1,084-3 pass-catching stat line.

He’s a legit player.

But this year he has three problems.

Whereas Lindsay played as the clear lead back in the second half of last season, teammate Royce Freeman has forced a nearly even time share this year.

  • Phillip Lindsay (per game): 50.9% snap rate, 13.5 carries, 4.8 targets
  • Royce Freeman (per game): 52.0% snap rate, 10.5 carries, 4.8 targets

Lindsay still has the edge in usage, but it is slight.

Additionally, while Lindsay has predictably regressed in his efficiency, Freeman has progressed.

  • Phillip Lindsay: 2018 – 5.3 yards per opportunity; 2019 – 4.4 yards
  • Royce Freeman: 2018 – 3.9 yards per opportunity; 2019 – 4.7 yards

With diminished efficiency, Lindsay is far less likely to return value if he’s sharing more of the backfield work with Freeman.

Finally, as bad as the Broncos offense was last year, it might be even worse this year for the running backs with new quarterback Joe Flacco and coordinator Rich Scangarello (per the RotoViz Team Splits App).

  • 2019: 17.5 points per game, 100.5 rushing yards
  • 2018: 20.6 points per game, 118.9 rushing yards

Because of these factors, it’s hard to get all that excited about Lindsay, especially because he’s a big road dog — but that’s probably what he has going for him the most this week.

Throughout his career, Lindsay has had reverse home/road and favorite/dog splits (in DraftKings points per game).

  • Road vs. home: 17.1 vs. 13.1
  • Underdog vs. favorite: 16.4 vs. 14.1

And these splits make sense: He’s likelier to be a dog when he’s on the road. He’s likelier to have a pass-leaning game script as a dog. And as a receiver, he scores more fantasy points per opportunity.

In his five career games as a road dog, Lindsay has averaged 17.8 DraftKings points per game.

It’s not a surprise that Lindsay’s best game of the year came in Week 3: That was the only time this year he’s been a road dog. As is the case now, Lindsay was one of the top backs in our Models that week.

The big edge Lindsay still has over Freeman is that he’s the superior pass-catching back. If the Broncos play from behind for most of the game against the Chargers, Lindsay could see most of the offensive snaps.

And the matchup is good for Lindsay: The Chargers are No. 26 with a 63.0 PFF run-defense grade and 48.5 tackling grade. And they’re No. 25 with a 20.8% pass-defense DVOA against running backs.

Lindsay missed the Week 17 Broncos-Chargers game last year, but in their Week 11 matchup he put up 26.6 DraftKings points on 11-79-2 rushing and 4-27-0 receiving — as a road dog, of course.

I won’t be on Lindsay for cash games, but he’s an option for tournaments, where he’s likely to have reduced ownership.

Lindsay is the No. 1 back in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high 95% Bargain Rating.

Carlos Hyde: Houston Texans (-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 48.5 O/U

Over the past 18 months, Hyde has gone from the 49ers to the Browns to the Jaguars and now to the Texans. What a long strange trip it’s been.

It’s hard to be too excited by Hyde: He’s a between-the-tackles plodder with a 49.2% snap rate and just eight yards receiving on six targets this year. But he has 10-plus carries in each game and 100% of the team’s backfield carries inside the five-yard line.

In his two full seasons as a locked-in starter (2016-17), he averaged 1,219.5 yards and 8.5 touchdowns from scrimmage in 14.5 games. He’s not an entirely untalented player.

Hyde has just 9.2 DraftKings points per game this year, so — again — he’s not overly exciting. But at $4,300 on DraftKings, he has an underappreciated floor: He has a +1.23 Plus/Minus and 75% Consistency Rating.

And as a home favorite, he has an elevated chance of hitting his salary-based expectations. A big-bodied grinder with minimal pass-catching ability, Hyde is the Platonic ideal of the “home favorite back.” He can just roll his way to yard after yard through a prolonged series of meaningless clock-turning early-down runs with a positive game script.

Excluding his non-starter rookie season, Hyde has been at his best as a home favorite, averaging 15.9 DraftKings points per game with a +6.37 Plus/Minus and 80% Consistency Rating — and he’s done that with a slew of bad teams.

And for what it’s worth, 2016-18 starter Lamar Miller was also a splits-heavy producer: He was easily his best as a home favorite, averaging 16.2 DraftKings points per game with a +3.97 Plus/Minus and 63.2% Consistency Rating.

As a home favorite, Hyde is the Texans’ kind of back.

And he has a favorable matchup. For the most part, the Falcons have been exploited by lead backs this year.

  • Dalvin Cook (Week 1, home): 29.0 DraftKings points, 21-111-2 rushing, 2-9-0 receiving on two targets
  • Miles Sanders (Week 2, away): 6.7 DraftKings points, 10-28-0 rushing, 3-9-0 receiving on four targets
  • Marlon Mack (Week 3, home): 16.8 DraftKings points, 16-74-1 rushing, 2-14-0 receiving on three targets
  • Derrick Henry (Week 4, away): 14.8 DraftKings points, 27-100-0 rushing, 1-8-0 receiving on two targets

While Hyde isn’t a pass-catching back, he did get five targets last week, and under defense-oriented HC Dan Quinn, the Falcons have funneled targets — and thus fantasy points — to opposing backs with their Cover 3 defense.

  • 2018: 30.0 DraftKings points (4th), 117 receptions (1st)
  • 2017: 23.5 DraftKings points (21st), 110 receptions (1st)
  • 2016: 28.1 DraftKings points (4th), 109 receptions (1st)
  • 2015: 29.6 DraftKings points (3rd), 118 receptions (1st)

If ever there were a week for Hyde to get extra receiving work within the natural flow of the game, it’s this one.

I’m extremely unlikely to roster Hyde in cash — because I respect money — but he is rosterable in GPPs as a game script-inspired leverage play on the Texans passing game, which will likely be popular.

Hyde is the No. 1 back in the Raybon Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +3.14 Projected Plus/Minus.

Christian-McCaffrey

Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey

Upside Running Backs for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers ($8,700 DK, $9,100 FD): Run CMC will rightfully be one of the slate’s most popular players. In his three games without quarterback Cam Newton (foot) — not counting last year’s meaningless Week 17, when he played just 10 snaps — McCaffrey has averaged 32.5 DraftKings points. McCaffrey has a position-high nine Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he leads all backs with his median, ceiling and floor projections.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints ($8,600 DK, $8,200 FD): Kamara is likely to have reduced ownership because he’s without quarterback Drew Brees (thumb) and the Buccaneers are No. 1 with a -38.5% run-defense DVOA. But over the past two weeks he has still averaged 21.5 points per game on FanDuel, where he has a position-high ceiling projection.

Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets ($6,800 DK, $7,300 FD): Since his 2014 breakout, Bell is No. 1 among all backs with 20.3 FanDuel points and 26.8 opportunities per game. Quarterback Sam Darnold (mononucleosis) will likely sit, but Bell and the Jets offense should be rested and ready coming off the bye, and Bell averaged 18.1 FanDuel points per game in Weeks 2-3 without Darnold.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,700 DK, $7,200 FD): Danny Woodhead 2.0 crushed in Weeks 1-4 with 490 yards and six touchdowns starting in the place of Melvin Gordon (holdout). MG3 has returned, but he’s unlikely to see his full complement of snaps as he works himself back into game shape. The Broncos are No. 26 with a 4.2% run-defense DVOA, and they are dealing with injuries to edge Bradley Chubb (knee, injured reserve) and linebacker Josey Jewell (hamstring). Ekeler has averaged 19.5 DraftKings points across his 14 career games with 10-plus touches.

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,400 DK, $6,900 FD): Fournette has averaged 19.1 DraftKings points across backup rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew’s three starts. Since entering the league in 2017, Lenny is No. 5 among all backs with 22.8 opportunities per game. The Panthers have a rush-flowing funnel defense that ranks No. 4 against the pass (-27.6% DVOA) but No. 29 against the run (7.4% DVOA).

Mark Ingram, Baltimore Ravens ($6,300 DK, $7,500 FD): Ingram is locked in for 12-plus touches per game as the lead back on a high-scoring offense with a militant 56.7% run rate in quarterback Lamar Jackson’s 12 career starts. Ingram is No. 2 in the league with 10 carries inside the opponent 10-yard line and five inside the five. The Steelers have a top-eight mark with 28.5 DraftKings points per game allowed to opposing backfields.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,100 DK, $7,100 FD): Mixon is a prisoner of circumstance as the lead back on an 0-4 team averaging just 14.3 points per game. The Bengals are dead last with a 31% stuffed run rate, and Mixon is getting no help from his offensive line. But the Cardinals are No. 28 with a 62.0 PFF run-defense grade and No. 29 with a 36.5% pass-defense DVOA against running backs. Mixon is on the positive side of his splits and has averaged 16.3 DraftKings points across his 11 games as a home favorite.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans ($6,000 DK, $6,700 FD): Henry is the No. 7 fantasy back with 16.8 FanDuel points per game, averaging a robust +5.25 Plus/Minus. He’s tied for No. 2 with 19.5 carries per game, and the Bills have a rush-flowing funnel defense that ranks No. 3 in pass-defense DVOA (-31.1%) but No. 25 in run-defense DVOA (1.5%). Since becoming the lead back last year, Henry has averaged 22.9 FanDuel points per game with a blinding +13.1 Plus/Minus as a home favorite.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers ($5,900 DK, $6,800 FD): Jones has split backfield work with Jamaal Williams (concussion) for years, but he’s expected to be without Williams for the first game of his career this week. Jones and the Packers should have the edge over the Cowboys in terms of rest and preparation because they played on Thursday Night Football last week. In his six games with a snap share of at least 70%, Jones has averaged 24.6 DraftKings points.

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears ($5,200 DK, $5,700 FD): The rookie leads the team in every rushing category with a 58-200-1 stat line, and he has all four of the team’s carries inside the opponent five-yard line. The Bears are 5.5-point favorites in London, so Montgomery might benefit from a run-heavy game script, especially since quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) is expected to sit. The Raiders are No. 30 with a 50.4 PFF run-defense grade. Montgomery has a position-high +3.67 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.

Jordan Howard, Philadelphia Eagles ($5,100 DK, $6,500 FD): Howard was a top-three fantasy producer last week with his 32.5 DraftKings points thanks to a 115-yard, three-touchdown performance. Howard is still in a three-way timeshare, but for his career, he’s averaged 81.8 yards and 0.57 touchdowns per game. A 14-point home favorite, Howard could have another multi-touchdown outing this week.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Dalvin Cook
Photo credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

The Week 5 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 6, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically the industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

Odds as of Thursday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models

There are five running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Dalvin Cook: $8,400 DraftKings; $8,200 FanDuel
  • Ezekiel Elliott: $8,300 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel
  • David Johnson: $7,500 DraftKings; $6,800 FanDuel
  • Phillip Lindsay: $4,900 DraftKings; $6,700 FanDuel
  • Carlos Hyde: $4,300 DraftKings; $5,600 FanDuel

Dalvin Cook: Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) at New York Giants, 44.5 Over/Under

Cook entered the season as a concern-laden player. He flashed but failed to sustain his output in two injury-impacted career-opening campaigns. But in his third NFL season, he has been forcefully fantastic.

Cook is the No. 3 fantasy running back with 22.5 FanDuel points per game, and he has been incredibly consistent on a weekly basis.

  • Week 1 (vs. Falcons): 25.0 FanDuel points, 21-111-2 rushing, 2-9-0 receiving on two targets
  • Week 2 (at Packers): 26.6 FanDuel points, 20-154-1 rushing, 3-37-0 receiving on three targets
  • Week 3 (vs. Raiders): 22.3 FanDuel points, 16-110-1 rushing, 4-33-0 receiving on five targets
  • Week 4 (at Bears): 16.0 FanDuel points, 14-35-1 rushing, 6-35-0 receiving on eight targets

Cook is No. 1 in the league with five rushing touchdowns and No. 2 with 410 rushing yards. He leads the Vikings with 15 receptions and barely trails wide receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs with his 18 targets (vs. 22 and 19).

He has scored a touchdown in each game, thanks to his explosive play-making talent and goal-line usage. When he’s not breaking off a 75-yard touchdown run (Week 2), he’s getting scores from inside the two-yard line (Weeks 3-4). Even though rookie teammate Alexander Mattison is playing a lesser version of the 2017-18 Latavius Murray role, Cook is yet to lose a single carry inside the five-yard line to Mattison.

Even last week, when the Vikings found themselves with a negative game script, Cook still had a decent fantasy day because of his pass-catching ability.

For the season, Cook has an obscene +8.88 Plus/Minus and 100% Consistency Rating on FanDuel. He is the Vikings offense.

With the offseason addition of center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Josh Kline, as well as rushing guru Gary Kubiak as an offensive advisor, the Vikings offensive line has improved significantly. In 2018, the Vikings were No. 23 with 4.09 adjusted line yards per attempt. This year, they are No. 4 with a mark of 4.91 (per Football Outsiders).

Since taking over as the offensive coordinator in Week 15 last year, Kevin Stefanski has overseen an aggressively ground-based system. In Stefanski’s seven play-calling games, the Vikings have a 50.6% run rate.

With a better offensive line and a coordinator who leans on the run, it’s no wonder that Cook is having a breakout season.

Cook is in something of a bounceback spot coming off his worst game of the year, and his matchup with the Giants is good.

Specifically, almost all of the Giants’ off-ball linebackers are injured. Rookie surprise Ryan Connelly (knee, injured reserve) suffered a season-ending injury last week. Veterans Alec Ogletree (hamstring) and Tae Davis (concussion) both missed Week 4 and are questionable for Week 5. The Giants could struggle mightily against the run and in pass defense against Cook without their top second-level defenders.

For cash games and guaranteed prize pools, Cook is definitely in play.

Also, I’m taking an against-the-spread position on the Vikings, who are favorites against a non-divisional opponent. Under head coach Mike Zimmer, the Vikings have been a profitable regular-season team to back…

  • As favorites: 31-15-1, 30.6% ROI
  • Outside of division: 38-13-1, 44.3% ROI

As non-divisional favorites, Zimmer’s Vikings are an outstanding 22-5-1, good for a nice 56.9% return on investment (per Bet Labs).

If the Vikings get out to a big lead — and I see how they could — Cook could approach 25 touches.

Cook is the No. 1 running back in the Freedman Model for FanDuel, where he has an elite 98% Bargain Rating.

Ezekiel Elliott: Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers, 46.5 O/U

Zeke has had something of a mixed season so far.

  • Week 1 (vs. Giants): 13.3 DraftKings points, 54.4% offensive snaps, 13-53-1 rushing, 1-10-0 receiving on two targets
  • Week 2 (at Redskins): 23.0 DraftKings points, 75.7% offensive snaps, 23-111-1 rushing, 2-9-0 receiving on two targets
  • Week 3 (vs. Dolphins): 18.9 DraftKings points, 66.7% offensive snaps, 19-125-0 rushing, 2-14-0 receiving on three targets
  • Week 4 (at Saints): 17.5 DraftKings points, 96.6% offensive snaps, 18-35-1 rushing, 6-30-0 receiving on seven targets

On the one hand, Zeke is the No. 9 fantasy back with 18.2 DraftKings points per game. On the other hand, he has a -3.39 Plus/Minus and 25% Consistency Rating. He has clearly underperformed expectations this year.

But his 2019 production needs to be put into context. In Weeks 1-2, he was working his way back into shape after his Cabo-located offseason holdout. In Week 3, he played sparingly in the second half of a 31-6 win as backup Tony Pollard got extra work.

And in Week 4, Zeke and the Cowboys simply sucked — but at least he played almost all the snaps, and he was No. 2 on the team in targets. For a worst-case scenario, last week was actually pretty encouraging. It showed how high Zeke’s floor is and how large of a role he still has in the offense.

I will probably die believing that the Cowboys shouldn’t have drafted Elliott No. 4 overall in the 2016 draft, but as a fantasy producer, he’s elite. Since he entered the league in 2016, only Le’Veon Bell and Saquon Barkley have averaged more DraftKings points per game than Zeke’s 21.9 (including playoffs).

In each of the past three seasons, Zeke has led the NFL in rushing yards per game with 108.7, 98.3 and 95.6. In fact, Elliott trails only Hall-of-Famers Jim Brown and Barry Sanders with his career per-game rushing average of 99.4.

So we probably shouldn’t worry too much about Zeke in Week 5, especially because he has an advantageous matchup. Even though the Packers have seriously invested in their defense via the draft and free agency over the past year, they are No. 29 with a 56.0 PFF run-defense grade.

In Week 1, no one in the Bears trio of running backs individually dominated the Packers, but they combined for 28 DraftKings points. And in Weeks 2-4, the Packers have been trashed by a series of lead backs.

  • Dalvin Cook (Week 2, away): 31.1 DraftKings points, 20-154-1 rushing, 3-37-0 receiving on three targets
  • Phillip Lindsay (Week 3, away): 29.0 DraftKings points, 21-81-2 rushing, 4-49-0 receiving on five targets
  • Jordan Howard (Week 4, away): 32.5 DraftKings points, 15-87-2 rushing, 3-28-1 receiving on four targets

In total, seven running backs have faced the Packers this year with a DraftKings salary of at least $4,000: They have averaged 18.5 points per game with an +8.05 Plus/Minus.

Basically, the Packers are more Swiss than cheddar on run defense. They have allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game to opposing backfields with 35.6 per game.

The Cowboys will be without Pro-Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith (ankle), and that’s not great. They have significantly underperformed without Smith since Zeke joined the team in 2016 (including playoffs).

  • With Smith (44 games): 24.9 points, 365.5 total yards, 8.6 offensive expected points
  • Without Smith (11 games): 18.4 points, 324.7 total yards, -2.7 offensive expected points

But I’m still not that worried: The Packers are just that bad against the run. In his three career games against the Packers, Zeke has dominated on the ground.

  • Week 6 (2016, away): 22.4 DraftKings points, 28-157-0 rushing, 2-17-0 receiving on four targets
  • Divisional Round (2016, home): 16.3 DraftKings points, 22-125-0 rushing, one reception for -2 yards on one target
  • Week 5 (2017, home): 17.2 DraftKings points, 29-116-0 rushing, 1-16-0 receiving on two targets

Zeke is the No. 1 back in the Levitan and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he is $100 cheaper than Cook and makes for an intriguing pivot play in tournaments and option in cash games.

Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: David Johnson

David Johnson: Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, 47.5 O/U

Johnson has underwhelmed this year as a runner, but he’s still No. 8 at the position with 16 FanDuel points per game. His production hasn’t always been pretty, but at least it’s been there.

  • Week 1 (vs. Lions): 22.7 FanDuel points, 18-82-0 rushing, 6-55-1 receiving on seven targets
  • Week 2 (at Ravens): 7.9 FanDuel points, 7-14-1 rushing, 1-0-0 receiving on one target
  • Week 3 (vs. Panthers): 15.5 FanDuel points, 11-37-0 rushing, 6-28-1 receiving on nine targets
  • Week 4 (vs. Seahawks): 17.9 FanDuel points, 11-40-0 rushing, 8-99-0 receiving on 11 targets

The big factor Johnson has in his favor is his pass-catching prowess. He’s No. 2 among all backs with 28 targets, and he’s No. 4 with 10.6 expected receiving fantasy points per game (per the RotoViz Screener).

He’s no longer the 2016 All-Pro compiler who had an NFL-high 373 touches, 2,118 yards and 20 touchdowns. But Johnson has been significantly more productive this year than he was last year.

  • 2019 (four games): 16.0 FanDuel points, +4.08 Plus/Minus, 75% Consistency Rating
  • 2018 (16 games): 13.9 FanDuel points, +1.18 Plus/Minus, 50% Consistency Rating

He’s still a three-down lead back who gets 18.8 opportunities per game, sees 80.9% of the offensive snaps, has 100% of the team’s backfield goal-line work and plays in a fast-paced system that leads the league with 23.9 seconds per play.

And despite coming off a top-10 positional performance against the Seahawks, he is exactly the same price he was last week: $6,800 on FanDuel.

That price is simply unfathomable. It puts him outside of the top 10 in salary, even though he’s top-five in median, ceiling and floor projections.

If you use the FantasyLabs Trends tool to sort through Johnson’s game log by salary, you’ll see that Johnson hasn’t had a FanDuel price this low — with the exception of last week — since Week 15 of his rookie season: Johnson is cheaper than he’s been on FanDuel at any point over the past 3.75 years.

As a result, Johnson is likely to be popular this weekend in cash games and tournaments — especially with his breathtakingly beautiful matchup, which Peter Jennings highlights on the Week 5 Fantasy Flex pod.

Last year, the Bengals allowed the second-most production to opposing backfields with 27.4 FanDuel points per game. This year, the Bengals have somehow gotten worse: They have allowed a league-high mark of 34.5.

The onslaught has been relentless. Basically, if a back has gotten 10 carries against the Bengals, he’s given them the Johnny Sack treatment.

Do you think Johnson is going to get 10-plus carries this weekend? Because I do.

Linebackers Nick Vigil and Preston Brown are especially to blame for the Bengals’ generosity to opposing backs. They have both been exposed on the ground and in coverage.

The Bengals are fortunate to be only No. 22 with a -3.8% run-defense DVOA. They are at their worst in the intermediate range of the field, where they rank No. 31 with 1.53 second-level yards allowed per run: Once opposing backs get 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, the Bengals linebackers have been incapable of limiting yardage.

To make matters worse, the Bengals are No. 30 against running backs with a 48.6% pass-defense DVOA. Last year, they were also No. 31 with a 22.0% mark.

On the ground or through the air, they can’t stop anyone. One of their main problems is that they have a league-worst 44.0 PFF tackling grade. Even when Bengals defenders get close to ball-carriers, they struggle to bring them down.

Vigil and Brown specifically have been among the worst defenders on the team, and that’s reflected in their PFF grades.

  • Nick Vigil: 41.8 overall, 51.5 run defense, 39.6 coverage
  • Preston Brown: 49.6 overall, 49.8 run defense, 54.0 coverage

I tend to bet the under on player props, but I might have to make an exception for the receiving props of backs facing the Bengals. Carson hit the over on his yardage prop in Week 1, as did Conner in Week 4. Books didn’t post a receiving prop for Gore in Week 3, and Breida had no reason to catch passes for the 49ers in a 41-17 victory in Week 2.

In what should be a close game, Johnson should be used regularly as a receiver.

To find the best bets in the props market, use our Player Props tool, which is powered by our industry-leading projections from Koerner. Since last year, the props with a bet quality of 10 have gone 310-166-13, good for a 63% win rate. Without question, you should supplement your DFS action with player props.

Even though the Cardinals are No. 31 with a poor 40.6 PFF run-blocking grade, Johnson will be popular in cash games and tournaments, especially on FanDuel, where he has a position-high 99% Bargain Rating and is the No. 1 back in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models.

Phillip Lindsay: Denver Broncos (+6.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 44.5 O/U

Last year, Lindsay was such an unlikely success story: A small, undrafted rookie coming from nowhere to lead his team with 1,278 yards and 10 touchdowns from scrimmage. He was second among all qualified backs with 5.4 yards per carry and was the league’s third-most north/south runner with a 3.39 Efficiency Rating (per Next Gen Stats). Few rushers last year were as explosive as he was through the line of scrimmage.

And it’s not as if his production was a fluke. Although he was undrafted, he was a good, underappreciated prospect.

  • He has good speed: He ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash at his pro day.
  • He was productive in college: Across his three seasons as a lead back, he averaged 1,450 yards and 13 touchdowns from scrimmage.
  • He is a good receiver: In college, he had a 117-1,084-3 pass-catching stat line.

He’s a legit player.

But this year he has three problems.

Whereas Lindsay played as the clear lead back in the second half of last season, teammate Royce Freeman has forced a nearly even time share this year.

  • Phillip Lindsay (per game): 50.9% snap rate, 13.5 carries, 4.8 targets
  • Royce Freeman (per game): 52.0% snap rate, 10.5 carries, 4.8 targets

Lindsay still has the edge in usage, but it is slight.

Additionally, while Lindsay has predictably regressed in his efficiency, Freeman has progressed.

  • Phillip Lindsay: 2018 – 5.3 yards per opportunity; 2019 – 4.4 yards
  • Royce Freeman: 2018 – 3.9 yards per opportunity; 2019 – 4.7 yards

With diminished efficiency, Lindsay is far less likely to return value if he’s sharing more of the backfield work with Freeman.

Finally, as bad as the Broncos offense was last year, it might be even worse this year for the running backs with new quarterback Joe Flacco and coordinator Rich Scangarello (per the RotoViz Team Splits App).

  • 2019: 17.5 points per game, 100.5 rushing yards
  • 2018: 20.6 points per game, 118.9 rushing yards

Because of these factors, it’s hard to get all that excited about Lindsay, especially because he’s a big road dog — but that’s probably what he has going for him the most this week.

Throughout his career, Lindsay has had reverse home/road and favorite/dog splits (in DraftKings points per game).

  • Road vs. home: 17.1 vs. 13.1
  • Underdog vs. favorite: 16.4 vs. 14.1

And these splits make sense: He’s likelier to be a dog when he’s on the road. He’s likelier to have a pass-leaning game script as a dog. And as a receiver, he scores more fantasy points per opportunity.

In his five career games as a road dog, Lindsay has averaged 17.8 DraftKings points per game.

It’s not a surprise that Lindsay’s best game of the year came in Week 3: That was the only time this year he’s been a road dog. As is the case now, Lindsay was one of the top backs in our Models that week.

The big edge Lindsay still has over Freeman is that he’s the superior pass-catching back. If the Broncos play from behind for most of the game against the Chargers, Lindsay could see most of the offensive snaps.

And the matchup is good for Lindsay: The Chargers are No. 26 with a 63.0 PFF run-defense grade and 48.5 tackling grade. And they’re No. 25 with a 20.8% pass-defense DVOA against running backs.

Lindsay missed the Week 17 Broncos-Chargers game last year, but in their Week 11 matchup he put up 26.6 DraftKings points on 11-79-2 rushing and 4-27-0 receiving — as a road dog, of course.

I won’t be on Lindsay for cash games, but he’s an option for tournaments, where he’s likely to have reduced ownership.

Lindsay is the No. 1 back in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high 95% Bargain Rating.

Carlos Hyde: Houston Texans (-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 48.5 O/U

Over the past 18 months, Hyde has gone from the 49ers to the Browns to the Jaguars and now to the Texans. What a long strange trip it’s been.

It’s hard to be too excited by Hyde: He’s a between-the-tackles plodder with a 49.2% snap rate and just eight yards receiving on six targets this year. But he has 10-plus carries in each game and 100% of the team’s backfield carries inside the five-yard line.

In his two full seasons as a locked-in starter (2016-17), he averaged 1,219.5 yards and 8.5 touchdowns from scrimmage in 14.5 games. He’s not an entirely untalented player.

Hyde has just 9.2 DraftKings points per game this year, so — again — he’s not overly exciting. But at $4,300 on DraftKings, he has an underappreciated floor: He has a +1.23 Plus/Minus and 75% Consistency Rating.

And as a home favorite, he has an elevated chance of hitting his salary-based expectations. A big-bodied grinder with minimal pass-catching ability, Hyde is the Platonic ideal of the “home favorite back.” He can just roll his way to yard after yard through a prolonged series of meaningless clock-turning early-down runs with a positive game script.

Excluding his non-starter rookie season, Hyde has been at his best as a home favorite, averaging 15.9 DraftKings points per game with a +6.37 Plus/Minus and 80% Consistency Rating — and he’s done that with a slew of bad teams.

And for what it’s worth, 2016-18 starter Lamar Miller was also a splits-heavy producer: He was easily his best as a home favorite, averaging 16.2 DraftKings points per game with a +3.97 Plus/Minus and 63.2% Consistency Rating.

As a home favorite, Hyde is the Texans’ kind of back.

And he has a favorable matchup. For the most part, the Falcons have been exploited by lead backs this year.

  • Dalvin Cook (Week 1, home): 29.0 DraftKings points, 21-111-2 rushing, 2-9-0 receiving on two targets
  • Miles Sanders (Week 2, away): 6.7 DraftKings points, 10-28-0 rushing, 3-9-0 receiving on four targets
  • Marlon Mack (Week 3, home): 16.8 DraftKings points, 16-74-1 rushing, 2-14-0 receiving on three targets
  • Derrick Henry (Week 4, away): 14.8 DraftKings points, 27-100-0 rushing, 1-8-0 receiving on two targets

While Hyde isn’t a pass-catching back, he did get five targets last week, and under defense-oriented HC Dan Quinn, the Falcons have funneled targets — and thus fantasy points — to opposing backs with their Cover 3 defense.

  • 2018: 30.0 DraftKings points (4th), 117 receptions (1st)
  • 2017: 23.5 DraftKings points (21st), 110 receptions (1st)
  • 2016: 28.1 DraftKings points (4th), 109 receptions (1st)
  • 2015: 29.6 DraftKings points (3rd), 118 receptions (1st)

If ever there were a week for Hyde to get extra receiving work within the natural flow of the game, it’s this one.

I’m extremely unlikely to roster Hyde in cash — because I respect money — but he is rosterable in GPPs as a game script-inspired leverage play on the Texans passing game, which will likely be popular.

Hyde is the No. 1 back in the Raybon Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +3.14 Projected Plus/Minus.

Christian-McCaffrey

Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey

Upside Running Backs for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers ($8,700 DK, $9,100 FD): Run CMC will rightfully be one of the slate’s most popular players. In his three games without quarterback Cam Newton (foot) — not counting last year’s meaningless Week 17, when he played just 10 snaps — McCaffrey has averaged 32.5 DraftKings points. McCaffrey has a position-high nine Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he leads all backs with his median, ceiling and floor projections.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints ($8,600 DK, $8,200 FD): Kamara is likely to have reduced ownership because he’s without quarterback Drew Brees (thumb) and the Buccaneers are No. 1 with a -38.5% run-defense DVOA. But over the past two weeks he has still averaged 21.5 points per game on FanDuel, where he has a position-high ceiling projection.

Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets ($6,800 DK, $7,300 FD): Since his 2014 breakout, Bell is No. 1 among all backs with 20.3 FanDuel points and 26.8 opportunities per game. Quarterback Sam Darnold (mononucleosis) will likely sit, but Bell and the Jets offense should be rested and ready coming off the bye, and Bell averaged 18.1 FanDuel points per game in Weeks 2-3 without Darnold.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,700 DK, $7,200 FD): Danny Woodhead 2.0 crushed in Weeks 1-4 with 490 yards and six touchdowns starting in the place of Melvin Gordon (holdout). MG3 has returned, but he’s unlikely to see his full complement of snaps as he works himself back into game shape. The Broncos are No. 26 with a 4.2% run-defense DVOA, and they are dealing with injuries to edge Bradley Chubb (knee, injured reserve) and linebacker Josey Jewell (hamstring). Ekeler has averaged 19.5 DraftKings points across his 14 career games with 10-plus touches.

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,400 DK, $6,900 FD): Fournette has averaged 19.1 DraftKings points across backup rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew’s three starts. Since entering the league in 2017, Lenny is No. 5 among all backs with 22.8 opportunities per game. The Panthers have a rush-flowing funnel defense that ranks No. 4 against the pass (-27.6% DVOA) but No. 29 against the run (7.4% DVOA).

Mark Ingram, Baltimore Ravens ($6,300 DK, $7,500 FD): Ingram is locked in for 12-plus touches per game as the lead back on a high-scoring offense with a militant 56.7% run rate in quarterback Lamar Jackson’s 12 career starts. Ingram is No. 2 in the league with 10 carries inside the opponent 10-yard line and five inside the five. The Steelers have a top-eight mark with 28.5 DraftKings points per game allowed to opposing backfields.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,100 DK, $7,100 FD): Mixon is a prisoner of circumstance as the lead back on an 0-4 team averaging just 14.3 points per game. The Bengals are dead last with a 31% stuffed run rate, and Mixon is getting no help from his offensive line. But the Cardinals are No. 28 with a 62.0 PFF run-defense grade and No. 29 with a 36.5% pass-defense DVOA against running backs. Mixon is on the positive side of his splits and has averaged 16.3 DraftKings points across his 11 games as a home favorite.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans ($6,000 DK, $6,700 FD): Henry is the No. 7 fantasy back with 16.8 FanDuel points per game, averaging a robust +5.25 Plus/Minus. He’s tied for No. 2 with 19.5 carries per game, and the Bills have a rush-flowing funnel defense that ranks No. 3 in pass-defense DVOA (-31.1%) but No. 25 in run-defense DVOA (1.5%). Since becoming the lead back last year, Henry has averaged 22.9 FanDuel points per game with a blinding +13.1 Plus/Minus as a home favorite.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers ($5,900 DK, $6,800 FD): Jones has split backfield work with Jamaal Williams (concussion) for years, but he’s expected to be without Williams for the first game of his career this week. Jones and the Packers should have the edge over the Cowboys in terms of rest and preparation because they played on Thursday Night Football last week. In his six games with a snap share of at least 70%, Jones has averaged 24.6 DraftKings points.

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears ($5,200 DK, $5,700 FD): The rookie leads the team in every rushing category with a 58-200-1 stat line, and he has all four of the team’s carries inside the opponent five-yard line. The Bears are 5.5-point favorites in London, so Montgomery might benefit from a run-heavy game script, especially since quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) is expected to sit. The Raiders are No. 30 with a 50.4 PFF run-defense grade. Montgomery has a position-high +3.67 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.

Jordan Howard, Philadelphia Eagles ($5,100 DK, $6,500 FD): Howard was a top-three fantasy producer last week with his 32.5 DraftKings points thanks to a 115-yard, three-touchdown performance. Howard is still in a three-way timeshare, but for his career, he’s averaged 81.8 yards and 0.57 touchdowns per game. A 14-point home favorite, Howard could have another multi-touchdown outing this week.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Dalvin Cook
Photo credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.