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NFL Week 5 Fantasy WR Breakdown: DeAndre Hopkins to Go Nuclear

nfl week 5 dfs picks-draftkings and fanduel values-deandre hopkins

The Week 5 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 6, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically the industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are six wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • DeAndre Hopkins: $7,800 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel
  • Julio Jones: $7,700 DraftKings; $8,200 FanDuel
  • Michael Thomas: $6,600 DraftKings; $7,700 FanDuel
  • Julian Edelman: $6,300 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel
  • Marquise Brown: $5,700 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
  • Auden Tate: $3,500 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel

DeAndre Hopkins: Houston Texans (-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 49 Over/Under

To borrow from Frank from Old School, if you’re reading this article, you already know: The house has been boarded up. The windows, the doors, everything. We’re at the Comfort Inn. Room 112.

There’s no way to spin this: With the exception of his Week 1 onslaught on Monday Night Football, Hopkins has magnificently disappointed this year. He is yet to go off on the main slate, and Nuk investors are feeling the pain.

  • Week 1 (at Saints): 34.1 DraftKings points, 8-111-2 receiving on 13 targets
  • Week 2 (vs. Jaguars): 9.0 DraftKings points, 5-40-0 receiving on eight targets
  • Week 3 (at Chargers): 12.7 DraftKings points, 6-67-0 receiving on seven targets
  • Week 4 (vs. Panthers): 8.1 DraftKings points, 5-41-0 receiving on eight targets, 0-of-1 passing for one interception

It’s not bad enough that he has dropped from his 2015-18 average of 10.8 targets per game to nine this year. He’s now throwing interceptions.

The football life isn’t currently as bad for Hopkins as it was in his Brock Osweiler-tainted 2016 hellscape, but it ain’t good. The past three weeks have easily made up the worst stretch of games Nuk has had at any point in the Deshaun Watson era (excluding playoffs, per the RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

Hopkins is the No. 26 fantasy wide receiver with just 16.0 DraftKings points per game. At 10.3% ownership on the main slate, Hopkins has a painful -2.11 Plus/Minus and 25% Consistency Rating.

But let’s not get carried away by Nuk’s short-term production. If you peruse the FantasyLabs Trends tool, you’ll see that only Antonio Brown has averaged more than Hopkins’ 21.0 DraftKings points per game since 2017, when Watson joined the team at quarterback. And in case you didn’t notice, Antonio isn’t on the main slate.

So we’re stuck with Nuk as probably the best receiver in football, and although his recent struggles aren’t ideal, they are at least explainable. He has had tough matchups for three weeks in a row (per Pro Football Focus).

  • Week 2 (vs. Jaguars): Shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey, 81.8% of routes, 4-27-0 receiving on seven targets
  • Week 3 (at Chargers): Shadow coverage from Casey Hayward Jr., 75.0% of routes, 0-0-0 receiving on one target
  • Week 4 (vs. Panthers): Shadow coverage from James Bradberry, 68.2% of routes, 3-27-0 receiving on six targets

Ramsey and Hayward are two of the top shadow men in the league, and Bradberry is quietly leading a Panthers defense holding opposing passing games to a league-low 3.9 net yards per attempt.

No other receiver over the past three weeks has faced as hard of a one-on-one WR/CB matchup schedule.

But for Week 5, Hopkins has a good matchup. If you look at the overall numbers, they aren’t staggering: The Falcons are allowing a middle-of-the-road 37.7 DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers.

But last year they allowed the fifth-most at 41.1 points per game, and this year’s secondary is similar to last year’s, especially now that the Falcons are without Pro-Bowl strong safety Keanu Neal (Achilles, injured reserve), who suffered a season-ending injury in Week 3. In 2018 — when Neal played just 37 snaps before tearing his ACL and missing the rest of the year — the Falcons allowed a top-three mark of 24 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers.

Additionally, I suspect that this year’s numbers aren’t fully representative. In Week 1, the Falcons faced a ground-based Vikings offense that ran just 11 pass plays in an easy 28-12 victory. In Week 2, the Eagles passing game imploded as quarterback Carson Wentz, wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson and tight end Dallas Goedert all suffered in-game injuries. What happened in those games is meaningless.

But in Weeks 3-4, the Falcons were exploited.

  • T.Y. Hilton (Week 3, home): 20.5 DraftKings points, 8-65-1 receiving on 10 targets (re-aggravated quad injury, left game before halftime)
  • A.J. Brown (Week 4, away): 24.4 DraftKings points, 3-94-2 receiving on three targets
  • Corey Davis (Week 4, away): 20.1 DraftKings points, 5-91-1 receiving on six targets

If the Falcons can allow a hobbled Hilton to go off in one half of football and two Titans receivers to go off in the same game, there’s no telling what they might let Hopkins do.

And the Texans might be especially incentivized to throw the ball: The Falcons have a receiver-flowing funnel defense that ranks No. 7 against the run but No. 21 against the pass (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA).

Despite his recent performance, Hopkins is likely to be one of the slate’s most popular receivers in both cash games and guaranteed prize pools (GPPs): This isn’t just a blatantly clear bounceback spot. It’s not even an eruption spot.

It’s a nuclear spot.

Thank you, I’ll be here all week, don’t forget to tip your waitresses, why are you cutting off my mic?

Nuk is the No. 1 wide receiver in the SportsGeek Model for DraftKings.

Julio Jones: Atlanta Falcons (+5) at Houston Texans, 49 O/U

The Falcons-Texans game has a slate-high over/under, so it will be popular to stack in tournaments, and many GPP investors will have a “Jam ‘Em In” approach to Hopkins and Jones.

If Hopkins isn’t the NFL’s best receiver, then Jones might be.

Last year, Julio led the league with 1,677 yards receiving. In fact, he’s progressively led the league in receiving over the past five years.

  • 2017-18: 3,121 yards
  • 2016-18: 4,530 yards
  • 2015-18: 6,401 yards
  • 2014-18: 7,994 yards

His dominance is now so routine that it’s almost dumbfoundingly boring.

#NeverJulio Twitter likes to point out that he has been a deficient touchdown producer for years. That’s true, but here’s the thing.

  1. Julio still averaged 6.2 touchdowns per year for the 2014-18 seasons. For a guy who doesn’t score, that’s a respectable number of touchdowns.
  2. Julio doesn’t need to score touchdowns to be one of the best receivers in any given slate.

Since morphing into his top-shelf self in 2014, he’s managed to play as the No. 3 fantasy wide receiver, averaging 21.2 DraftKings points despite his lackadaisical scoring. He’s the all-time NFL leader with 96.1 receiving yards per game. Even when he doesn’t score, Jones is good enough to have a top-five week at the position.

And in his 29 regular-season games with a touchdown since 2014, he’s rocked out with an obscene 28.2 points per game in point-per-reception scoring (per the RotoViz Game Splits app).

Perhaps no stat more clearly highlights his superiority than yards per route run (per PFF).

  • 2018: 2.93 (1st)
  • 2017: 3.08 (1st)
  • 2016: 3.12 (1st)
  • 2015: 3.04 (1st)
  • 2014: 2.72 (4th)
  • 2013: 2.75 (1st)

Perhaps most importantly, Julio is finally finding the end zone this year.

  • Week 1 (at Vikings): 15.1 DraftKings points, 6-31-1 receiving on 11 targets
  • Week 2 (vs. Eagles): 30.6 DraftKings points, 5-106-2 receiving on 10 targets
  • Week 3 (at Colts): 29.8 DraftKings points, 8-128-1 receiving on nine targets
  • Week 4 (vs. Titans): 9.3 DraftKings points, 4-52-0 receiving on seven targets

For the season, Julio is the No. 4 fantasy wide receiver with 21.2 DraftKings points per game, and he’s No. 6 at the position with 474 air yards (per AirYards.com). His +4.07 Plus/Minus is impressive considering that he is frequently one of the slate’s most expensive players.

I really like this spot for Julio for a couple of reasons. To start with, he has had strong reverse splits over the past half decade, and the Falcons are underdogs.

  • Underdog (32 games): 25.1 DraftKings points, +5.24 Plus/Minus, 71.9% Consistency Rating, 12.0% ownership
  • Favorite (54 games): 19.9 DraftKings points, -1.16 Plus/Minus, 44.4% Consistency Rating, 19.3% ownership

Amazingly, fantasy investors have historically rostered Julio most when he’s been least likely to produce. Although Julio might be the most popular receiver this weekend, in the big picture, he will have lower ownership than he otherwise would if the Falcons were favored. In a way, he’s available at a theoretical exposure discount.

On top of that, Julio has a great WR/CB matchup. For much of the game, I expect Julio to run routes in the coverage of rookie cornerback Lonnie Johnson Jr., who has one of the league’s worst PFF coverage grades at 32.5.

I have one ironclad fantasy rule. Just one. Whenever Julio faces a rookie corner named Lonnie, I roster him in GPPs. The Texans are No. 27 overall with a 51.4 PFF coverage grade. Use our Lineup Builder to create Falcons-Texans game stacks.

Julio is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, Julio has position-high median and ceiling projections. On FanDuel, he leads all receivers with nine Pro Trends.

Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13).

Michael Thomas: New Orleans Saints (-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 46.5 O/U

The Coors Field of Fantasy Football is dead. Long live the Coors Field of Fantasy Football.

Thomas entered the year with an all-time NFL-high 321 receptions through his first three seasons, and then in Week 1 he balled out with a 10-123-0 receiving line on Monday Night Football.

In Week 2, though, future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Drew Brees (hand) suffered an injury, and he hasn’t played since.

Thomas’ post-Brees production with backup Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t been awful, but the difference is noticeable.

  • Weeks 1-2: 22.1 DraftKings points per game, 20-212-0 receiving on 26 targets total
  • Weeks 3-4: 17.5 DraftKings points per game, 14-149-1 receiving on 16 targets total

Last year, the over/under was 50 when the Saints hosted the Bucs in Week 1. For their Week 14 rematch, it was 54. But now it’s a nondescript 46.5. There are other factors, but Brees’ absence is the primary reason this line is so low.

And in an environment with diminished scoring, our expectations for Thomas need to be adjusted down.

But he’s still intriguing this week. I don’t have the words to describe how utterly dominant Thomas was against the Bucs last year.

  • Week 1 (2018, home): 42.0 DraftKings points, 16-180-1 receiving on 17 targets
  • Week 14 (2018, away): 20.8 DraftKings points, 11-98-0 receiving on 13 targets

The scheme is different now under new defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, but cornerbacks Vernon Hargreaves III, Carlton Davis and M.J. Stewart are all still starting, and I don’t see much of a difference in the results.

Last year, the Bucs allowed opposing wide receivers to average 41.0 DraftKings points per game, the sixth-highest mark in the league. This year, that number has bumped up to 45.7.

The Bucs are much better against the run than they were last year. That’s what happens when defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is added to a unit. But that basically just means that now the Bucs have a receiver-flowing funnel defense: They rank No. 1 against the run but No. 15 against the pass (per DVOA).

I expect Thomas to line up most against Hargreaves, who owns a 52.6 PFF coverage grade and has allowed a high 69.5% catch rate across his four-year career. Thomas is likely to see his 77.3% catch rate regress without Brees — but even with Bridgewater, it should be a simple game of throw-and-catch for Thomas whenever he runs routes against Hargreaves.

Even though Thomas has played two-plus games with Bridgewater, he still leads the league with 34 receptions and is No. 8 with 361 yards receiving.

I probably won’t have Thomas in cash games because the thought of rostering him sans Brees terrifies me. But he warrants strategic ownership in tournaments.

Thomas is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends.

Julian Edelman: New England Patriots (-15.5) at Washington Redskins, 42.5 O/U

With tight end Rob Gronkowski retired, there was the assumption entering the season that 2019 would basically be the Edelman show. Since becoming a starter in 2013, Edelman had noticeable Gronk-based splits through the 2018 season (including playoffs).

  • Without Gronk (25 games): 14.7 FanDuel points, 11.4 targets, 7.3 receptions, 85.0 yards, 0.32 touchdowns, 0.29 two-point conversions
  • With Gronk (55 games): 13.1 FanDuel points, 9.4 targets, 6.4 receptions, 70.7 yards, 0.38 touchdowns, 0.14 two-point conversions

The Edelman explosion, though, is yet to occur.

  • Week 1 (vs. Steelers): 13.4 FanDuel points, 6-83-0 receiving on 11 targets, 1-8-0 rushing, 1-of-1 passing for 32 yards
  • Week 2 (at Dolphins): 7.2 FanDuel points, 4-51-0 receiving on four targets, 1-1-0 rushing
  • Week 3 (vs. Jets): 15.7 FanDuel points, 7-62-1 receiving on 10 targets
  • Week 4 (at Bills): 5.0 FanDuel points, 4-30-0 receiving on seven targets

For the season, Edelman is averaging just 10.3 FanDuel points per game. But his production needs to be put in context.

In Week 1, Edelman channeled his inner Everclear with an everything-to-everyone performance as he led the team in targets and receptions and contributed as a runner and passer. Even with all of quarterback Tom Brady’s touchdowns going to wide receivers Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett, this was Edelman near his Gronk-less best.

But in Week 2, he deferred to the one-game phenomenon that was “Patriots wide receiver Antonio Brown,” and he was hardly needed in a 43-0 victory.

In Week 3, Edelman reasserted himself with Brown no longer on the team.

But then in Week 4, Edelman and the Pats passing game struggled against the Bills. Here’s the thing: The Bills have been increasingly stout against the pass since defense-focused head coach Sean McDermott took over the team in 2017. On top of that, New Era Field is one of the toughest stadiums for visitors in the NFL. Brady completed just 46.2% of his passes. Edelman can be excused for his Week 4 shortfall.

Against the Redskins, Edelman is likely to look like the version of himself from Weeks 1 and 3. The Redskins are No. 29 with a 31.6% pass-defense DVOA, and they have allowed the second-most production to wide receivers this year with 39.2 FanDuel points per game.

In the slot, Edelman should run most of his routes against cornerback Fabian Moreau, who has an unsavory 42.0 PFF coverage grade this year and 68.8% catch rate allowed for his career. Moreau missed Weeks 1-2 to injury, but in Week 3 he played on the outside before shifting to the slot in Week 4.

His move to the interior was less than scholarly. On seven targets, he got learned with a 6-84-0 receiving line and 66 yards after the catch. Giants slot receiver Sterling Shepard in particular gave him a stern lecturing with 4-48-0 receiving on four targets. If Shepard can school Moreau in that fashion, I can’t imagine the education Edelman can impart.

Edelman (chest) is dealing with an injury, but he played through it last week, and he has practiced on a limited basis each day this week. He’s playing on Sunday.

Given the targets we can reasonably project for him and the advantageousness of his matchup, Edelman is awfully tempting for cash games and tournaments, especially on FanDuel, where Edelman is $6,500. He hasn’t been that cheap since Week 5 last year.

The Pats have a slate-high 28.5-point implied Vegas total. Bang a gong.

Edelman is the No. 1 FanDuel wide receiver in the CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner and SportsGeek Models.

Marquise Brown: Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers, 44.5 O/U

Hollywood did nothing in the preseason because of a foot injury, but since the regular season started, the first-round rookie speedster has flashed.

  • Week 1 (at Dolphins): 28.7 FanDuel points, 4-147-2 receiving on five targets
  • Week 2 (vs. Cardinals): 12.6 FanDuel points, 8-86-0 receiving on 13 targets
  • Week 3 (at Chiefs): 5.9 FanDuel points, 2-49-0 receiving on nine targets
  • Week 4 (vs. Browns): 4.2 FanDuel points, 4-22-0 receiving on seven targets

Sure, Brown is inconsistent. He’s a raw rookie adapting to the NFL and dependent on pass-uncertain quarterback Lamar Jackson. As such, Brown is a cash-game nonstarter, but his volatility makes him GPP perfection.

Brown is No. 3 with 633 air yards and yards after the catch combined and No. 7 with 2.45 yards per route.

Although the Ravens are a run-first team, Brown is tied for No. 19 in the league with his team-high 34 targets. It’s not as if he’s a usage-contingent player. His role and volume on the team are unquestioned.

Here’s what I had to say about Brown in my 2019 post-draft rookie dynasty rankings.

Hollywood enters the NFL with three consecutive seasons of good production. As a true freshman, Brown dominated the community college ranks, leading College of the Canyons in receiving with 50 receptions, 754 yards and 10 touchdowns in 10 games and chipping in two return touchdowns.

As a four-star junior college recruit, Brown transferred to Oklahoma. And as a sophomore he served as quarterback Baker Mayfield’s top playmaker, leading the Sooners with 1,095 yards and finishing second with 57 receptions and seven touchdowns.

Then last year he put up even better receiving numbers with Kyler Murray, finishing first on the team with 75 receptions and 1,318 yards and second with 10 touchdowns.

His NFL situation, though, is less than ideal: Even so, Brown is likely to be the No. 1 receiver in Baltimore right away, so his target volume should be respectable and he could have some week-winning performances as opposing defenses focus on the running game.

Brown has DeSean Jackson-level potential.

Really, that’s who Hollywood is: He’s the 2019 version of 2008 D-Jax.

The Steelers are No. 20 with a 57.5 PFF coverage grade, and they have struggled this year to contain field-stretching receivers.

  • Phillip Dorsett (Week 1, home): 23.5 FanDuel points, 4-95-2 receiving on four targets
  • D.K. Metcalf (Week 2, away): 13.6 FanDuel points, 3-61-1 receiving on seven targets
  • Dante Pettis (Week 3, home): 10.0 FanDuel points, 4-20-1 receiving on five targets

Brown’s one-on-one matchup with cornerback Joe Haden is good. While Hollywood is one of the league’s fastest players, Haden is a 30-year-old vet who had limited speed (4.52-second 40-yard dash) when he entered the NFL almost a decade ago. The odds are he hasn’t gotten significantly faster since 2010.

For the second week in a row, Marquise is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Raybon and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating.

Auden Tate: Cincinnati Bengals (-3) vs. Arizona Cardinals, 47 O/U

The investment thesis for Tate is simple: He’s way too cheap.

Tate is discounted in two main ways.

First, he played on Monday Night Football last week, but salaries were set on Sunday night, so Tate’s Week 5 pricing doesn’t take into account the fact that in Week 4 he had a season-high 91% snap rate and once again was regularly targeted within the normal flow of the offense. With two straight weeks of consistent usage, it’s much easier for us to rely on him with confidence.

On top of that, teammate John Ross (clavicle, injured reserve) hadn’t been injured before salaries were set, so Tate is likely to have an even greater target share than is accounted for in his pricing.

Since his insertion into the starting lineup, Tate has been a reliable producer.

  • Week 3 (at Bills): 9.8 FanDuel points, 88% snap rate, 6-88-0 receiving on 10 targets
  • Week 4 (at Steelers): 7.0 FanDuel points, 91% snap rate, 4-50-0 receiving on six targets

The sample is small, and Tate’s not blowing up opposing corners, but at least Tate has been consistent and reasonably productive with his opportunity.

And Tate’s matchup is great. On defense, the Cardinals are without starting outside cornerbacks Patrick Peterson (suspension) and Robert Alford (leg, injured reserve), and on offense, they lead the league in offensive pace (23.88 seconds per play), thereby creating extra opportunities for opposing offenses. Even though the Bengals are struggling, they could approach 80 offensive snaps this week.

Given how cheap he is and the usage we can expect from him, Tate is a legitimate possibility for cash games. He’s not the most conventional of options, but he affords a great deal of roster flexibility. With Tate, you can jam into your lineup almost anyone else you want.

Tate is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +5.32 Projected Plus/Minus and 96% Bargain Rating.

Keenan-Allen

Photo Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Keenan Allen

Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers ($7,300 DK, $7,500 FD): Keenan is the No. 1 receiver in the league with 25.9 DraftKings points per game, 47 targets, 34 receptions, 452 yards receiving and 651 air yards and yards after the catch combined. Cornerback Chris Harris Jr. presents him with a tough shadow matchup, but that will serve to diminish his GPP ownership rate. Allen has a 96% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,100 DK, $7,700 FD): After a slow start to the season, Evans has put up a 12-279-4 receiving line on 22 targets over the past two weeks. He leads the league with 581 air yards. He has a shadow matchup with cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who has allowed league-worst marks with 24 receptions and 380 yards receiving. Last year, Evans had a 6-163-1 receiving line on just seven targets in two games against Lattimore.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,900 DK, $7,800 FD): Among wide receivers, Godwin is No. 3 with 386 yards receiving, No. 6 with 148 yards after the catch and No. 13 with 389 air yards. Godwin has an exploitable matchup against cornerback P.J. Williams, who has allowed a 71.6% catch rate since moving to the slot last year.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,500 DK, $6,700 FD): Boyd is No. 4 in the league with 39 targets, and he should continue to see the volume with teammates A.J. Green (ankle) and John Ross (clavicle, injured reserve) on the sideline. In the slot he will match up with cornerback Tramaine Brock, who has a 59.7 PFF coverage grade and has allowed a 12-239-2 receiving line this year on 18 targets.

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals ($6,000 DK, $5,800 FD): The godfather is tied for No. 13 with 36 targets, and he should get as much volume as he can handle with teammates Christian Kirk (ankle) and Damiere Byrd (hamstring) expected to sit. Fitz is No. 6 with 16.0 expected fantasy receiving points per game (per the RotoViz Screener). The Bengals are No. 31 with a laughable 37.5 PFF coverage grade.

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears ($5,600 DK, $6,900 FD): Robinson easily leads the Bears with 34 targets, 24 receptions, 280 receiving yards and 338 air yards — but he has zero touchdowns. He’ll find the end zone at some point. The Raiders are No. 29 with a 47.6 PFF coverage grade.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay Packers ($5,600 DK, $6,300 FD): MVS is the locked-in No. 2 receiver for the Packers, ranking just behind teammate Davante Adams (toe) with 28 targets, 16 receptions, 217 yards receiving and 344 air yards. With Adams expected not to play, MVS will likely serve as the No. 1 receiving option for quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Phillip Dorsett, New England Patriots ($4,900 DK, $5,400 FD): Dorsett leads the Patriots with 292 air yards, and he has a 12-158-3 receiving line on 20 targets and 3-21-0 rushing in his three non-Antonio games. The Redskins are No. 29 with a 31.6% pass-defense DVOA.

Will Fuller, Houston Texans ($4,500 DK, $5,700 FD): Fuller is No. 12 with 399 air yards. He has just 8.1 DraftKings points per game this year, but in his 15 games with quarterback Deshaun Watson, he’s averaged 15.6. The Fuller onslaught will come.

Robby Anderson, New York Jets ($4,500 DK, $5,500 FD): Anderson should be rested and ready coming off the bye. He seems unlikely to have quarterback Sam Darnold (mononucleosis), but the Jets will have a pass-heavy game script as big road dogs. The Eagles have allowed a league-high 51.6 DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers.

J.J. Nelson, Oakland Raiders ($3,400 DK, $5,000 FD): I’m returning to the J.J. writeup well. After playing 78% of the snaps and putting up a 4-36-1 receiving line in Week 3, Nelson (knee) missed Week 4, and he’s been limited this week. But he’s practiced each day, so he seems likely to play. If the speedster is seeing regular action, he warrants GPP exposure. In his eight career games with a 70% snap rate, Nelson has averaged 16.5 DraftKings points. He’s extreme Hollywood arbitrage.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: DeAndre Hopkins
Photo credit: John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports

The Week 5 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 6, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically the industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are six wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • DeAndre Hopkins: $7,800 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel
  • Julio Jones: $7,700 DraftKings; $8,200 FanDuel
  • Michael Thomas: $6,600 DraftKings; $7,700 FanDuel
  • Julian Edelman: $6,300 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel
  • Marquise Brown: $5,700 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
  • Auden Tate: $3,500 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel

DeAndre Hopkins: Houston Texans (-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 49 Over/Under

To borrow from Frank from Old School, if you’re reading this article, you already know: The house has been boarded up. The windows, the doors, everything. We’re at the Comfort Inn. Room 112.

There’s no way to spin this: With the exception of his Week 1 onslaught on Monday Night Football, Hopkins has magnificently disappointed this year. He is yet to go off on the main slate, and Nuk investors are feeling the pain.

  • Week 1 (at Saints): 34.1 DraftKings points, 8-111-2 receiving on 13 targets
  • Week 2 (vs. Jaguars): 9.0 DraftKings points, 5-40-0 receiving on eight targets
  • Week 3 (at Chargers): 12.7 DraftKings points, 6-67-0 receiving on seven targets
  • Week 4 (vs. Panthers): 8.1 DraftKings points, 5-41-0 receiving on eight targets, 0-of-1 passing for one interception

It’s not bad enough that he has dropped from his 2015-18 average of 10.8 targets per game to nine this year. He’s now throwing interceptions.

The football life isn’t currently as bad for Hopkins as it was in his Brock Osweiler-tainted 2016 hellscape, but it ain’t good. The past three weeks have easily made up the worst stretch of games Nuk has had at any point in the Deshaun Watson era (excluding playoffs, per the RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

Hopkins is the No. 26 fantasy wide receiver with just 16.0 DraftKings points per game. At 10.3% ownership on the main slate, Hopkins has a painful -2.11 Plus/Minus and 25% Consistency Rating.

But let’s not get carried away by Nuk’s short-term production. If you peruse the FantasyLabs Trends tool, you’ll see that only Antonio Brown has averaged more than Hopkins’ 21.0 DraftKings points per game since 2017, when Watson joined the team at quarterback. And in case you didn’t notice, Antonio isn’t on the main slate.

So we’re stuck with Nuk as probably the best receiver in football, and although his recent struggles aren’t ideal, they are at least explainable. He has had tough matchups for three weeks in a row (per Pro Football Focus).

  • Week 2 (vs. Jaguars): Shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey, 81.8% of routes, 4-27-0 receiving on seven targets
  • Week 3 (at Chargers): Shadow coverage from Casey Hayward Jr., 75.0% of routes, 0-0-0 receiving on one target
  • Week 4 (vs. Panthers): Shadow coverage from James Bradberry, 68.2% of routes, 3-27-0 receiving on six targets

Ramsey and Hayward are two of the top shadow men in the league, and Bradberry is quietly leading a Panthers defense holding opposing passing games to a league-low 3.9 net yards per attempt.

No other receiver over the past three weeks has faced as hard of a one-on-one WR/CB matchup schedule.

But for Week 5, Hopkins has a good matchup. If you look at the overall numbers, they aren’t staggering: The Falcons are allowing a middle-of-the-road 37.7 DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers.

But last year they allowed the fifth-most at 41.1 points per game, and this year’s secondary is similar to last year’s, especially now that the Falcons are without Pro-Bowl strong safety Keanu Neal (Achilles, injured reserve), who suffered a season-ending injury in Week 3. In 2018 — when Neal played just 37 snaps before tearing his ACL and missing the rest of the year — the Falcons allowed a top-three mark of 24 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers.

Additionally, I suspect that this year’s numbers aren’t fully representative. In Week 1, the Falcons faced a ground-based Vikings offense that ran just 11 pass plays in an easy 28-12 victory. In Week 2, the Eagles passing game imploded as quarterback Carson Wentz, wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson and tight end Dallas Goedert all suffered in-game injuries. What happened in those games is meaningless.

But in Weeks 3-4, the Falcons were exploited.

  • T.Y. Hilton (Week 3, home): 20.5 DraftKings points, 8-65-1 receiving on 10 targets (re-aggravated quad injury, left game before halftime)
  • A.J. Brown (Week 4, away): 24.4 DraftKings points, 3-94-2 receiving on three targets
  • Corey Davis (Week 4, away): 20.1 DraftKings points, 5-91-1 receiving on six targets

If the Falcons can allow a hobbled Hilton to go off in one half of football and two Titans receivers to go off in the same game, there’s no telling what they might let Hopkins do.

And the Texans might be especially incentivized to throw the ball: The Falcons have a receiver-flowing funnel defense that ranks No. 7 against the run but No. 21 against the pass (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA).

Despite his recent performance, Hopkins is likely to be one of the slate’s most popular receivers in both cash games and guaranteed prize pools (GPPs): This isn’t just a blatantly clear bounceback spot. It’s not even an eruption spot.

It’s a nuclear spot.

Thank you, I’ll be here all week, don’t forget to tip your waitresses, why are you cutting off my mic?

Nuk is the No. 1 wide receiver in the SportsGeek Model for DraftKings.

Julio Jones: Atlanta Falcons (+5) at Houston Texans, 49 O/U

The Falcons-Texans game has a slate-high over/under, so it will be popular to stack in tournaments, and many GPP investors will have a “Jam ‘Em In” approach to Hopkins and Jones.

If Hopkins isn’t the NFL’s best receiver, then Jones might be.

Last year, Julio led the league with 1,677 yards receiving. In fact, he’s progressively led the league in receiving over the past five years.

  • 2017-18: 3,121 yards
  • 2016-18: 4,530 yards
  • 2015-18: 6,401 yards
  • 2014-18: 7,994 yards

His dominance is now so routine that it’s almost dumbfoundingly boring.

#NeverJulio Twitter likes to point out that he has been a deficient touchdown producer for years. That’s true, but here’s the thing.

  1. Julio still averaged 6.2 touchdowns per year for the 2014-18 seasons. For a guy who doesn’t score, that’s a respectable number of touchdowns.
  2. Julio doesn’t need to score touchdowns to be one of the best receivers in any given slate.

Since morphing into his top-shelf self in 2014, he’s managed to play as the No. 3 fantasy wide receiver, averaging 21.2 DraftKings points despite his lackadaisical scoring. He’s the all-time NFL leader with 96.1 receiving yards per game. Even when he doesn’t score, Jones is good enough to have a top-five week at the position.

And in his 29 regular-season games with a touchdown since 2014, he’s rocked out with an obscene 28.2 points per game in point-per-reception scoring (per the RotoViz Game Splits app).

Perhaps no stat more clearly highlights his superiority than yards per route run (per PFF).

  • 2018: 2.93 (1st)
  • 2017: 3.08 (1st)
  • 2016: 3.12 (1st)
  • 2015: 3.04 (1st)
  • 2014: 2.72 (4th)
  • 2013: 2.75 (1st)

Perhaps most importantly, Julio is finally finding the end zone this year.

  • Week 1 (at Vikings): 15.1 DraftKings points, 6-31-1 receiving on 11 targets
  • Week 2 (vs. Eagles): 30.6 DraftKings points, 5-106-2 receiving on 10 targets
  • Week 3 (at Colts): 29.8 DraftKings points, 8-128-1 receiving on nine targets
  • Week 4 (vs. Titans): 9.3 DraftKings points, 4-52-0 receiving on seven targets

For the season, Julio is the No. 4 fantasy wide receiver with 21.2 DraftKings points per game, and he’s No. 6 at the position with 474 air yards (per AirYards.com). His +4.07 Plus/Minus is impressive considering that he is frequently one of the slate’s most expensive players.

I really like this spot for Julio for a couple of reasons. To start with, he has had strong reverse splits over the past half decade, and the Falcons are underdogs.

  • Underdog (32 games): 25.1 DraftKings points, +5.24 Plus/Minus, 71.9% Consistency Rating, 12.0% ownership
  • Favorite (54 games): 19.9 DraftKings points, -1.16 Plus/Minus, 44.4% Consistency Rating, 19.3% ownership

Amazingly, fantasy investors have historically rostered Julio most when he’s been least likely to produce. Although Julio might be the most popular receiver this weekend, in the big picture, he will have lower ownership than he otherwise would if the Falcons were favored. In a way, he’s available at a theoretical exposure discount.

On top of that, Julio has a great WR/CB matchup. For much of the game, I expect Julio to run routes in the coverage of rookie cornerback Lonnie Johnson Jr., who has one of the league’s worst PFF coverage grades at 32.5.

I have one ironclad fantasy rule. Just one. Whenever Julio faces a rookie corner named Lonnie, I roster him in GPPs. The Texans are No. 27 overall with a 51.4 PFF coverage grade. Use our Lineup Builder to create Falcons-Texans game stacks.

Julio is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, Julio has position-high median and ceiling projections. On FanDuel, he leads all receivers with nine Pro Trends.

Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13).

Michael Thomas: New Orleans Saints (-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 46.5 O/U

The Coors Field of Fantasy Football is dead. Long live the Coors Field of Fantasy Football.

Thomas entered the year with an all-time NFL-high 321 receptions through his first three seasons, and then in Week 1 he balled out with a 10-123-0 receiving line on Monday Night Football.

In Week 2, though, future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Drew Brees (hand) suffered an injury, and he hasn’t played since.

Thomas’ post-Brees production with backup Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t been awful, but the difference is noticeable.

  • Weeks 1-2: 22.1 DraftKings points per game, 20-212-0 receiving on 26 targets total
  • Weeks 3-4: 17.5 DraftKings points per game, 14-149-1 receiving on 16 targets total

Last year, the over/under was 50 when the Saints hosted the Bucs in Week 1. For their Week 14 rematch, it was 54. But now it’s a nondescript 46.5. There are other factors, but Brees’ absence is the primary reason this line is so low.

And in an environment with diminished scoring, our expectations for Thomas need to be adjusted down.

But he’s still intriguing this week. I don’t have the words to describe how utterly dominant Thomas was against the Bucs last year.

  • Week 1 (2018, home): 42.0 DraftKings points, 16-180-1 receiving on 17 targets
  • Week 14 (2018, away): 20.8 DraftKings points, 11-98-0 receiving on 13 targets

The scheme is different now under new defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, but cornerbacks Vernon Hargreaves III, Carlton Davis and M.J. Stewart are all still starting, and I don’t see much of a difference in the results.

Last year, the Bucs allowed opposing wide receivers to average 41.0 DraftKings points per game, the sixth-highest mark in the league. This year, that number has bumped up to 45.7.

The Bucs are much better against the run than they were last year. That’s what happens when defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is added to a unit. But that basically just means that now the Bucs have a receiver-flowing funnel defense: They rank No. 1 against the run but No. 15 against the pass (per DVOA).

I expect Thomas to line up most against Hargreaves, who owns a 52.6 PFF coverage grade and has allowed a high 69.5% catch rate across his four-year career. Thomas is likely to see his 77.3% catch rate regress without Brees — but even with Bridgewater, it should be a simple game of throw-and-catch for Thomas whenever he runs routes against Hargreaves.

Even though Thomas has played two-plus games with Bridgewater, he still leads the league with 34 receptions and is No. 8 with 361 yards receiving.

I probably won’t have Thomas in cash games because the thought of rostering him sans Brees terrifies me. But he warrants strategic ownership in tournaments.

Thomas is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends.

Julian Edelman: New England Patriots (-15.5) at Washington Redskins, 42.5 O/U

With tight end Rob Gronkowski retired, there was the assumption entering the season that 2019 would basically be the Edelman show. Since becoming a starter in 2013, Edelman had noticeable Gronk-based splits through the 2018 season (including playoffs).

  • Without Gronk (25 games): 14.7 FanDuel points, 11.4 targets, 7.3 receptions, 85.0 yards, 0.32 touchdowns, 0.29 two-point conversions
  • With Gronk (55 games): 13.1 FanDuel points, 9.4 targets, 6.4 receptions, 70.7 yards, 0.38 touchdowns, 0.14 two-point conversions

The Edelman explosion, though, is yet to occur.

  • Week 1 (vs. Steelers): 13.4 FanDuel points, 6-83-0 receiving on 11 targets, 1-8-0 rushing, 1-of-1 passing for 32 yards
  • Week 2 (at Dolphins): 7.2 FanDuel points, 4-51-0 receiving on four targets, 1-1-0 rushing
  • Week 3 (vs. Jets): 15.7 FanDuel points, 7-62-1 receiving on 10 targets
  • Week 4 (at Bills): 5.0 FanDuel points, 4-30-0 receiving on seven targets

For the season, Edelman is averaging just 10.3 FanDuel points per game. But his production needs to be put in context.

In Week 1, Edelman channeled his inner Everclear with an everything-to-everyone performance as he led the team in targets and receptions and contributed as a runner and passer. Even with all of quarterback Tom Brady’s touchdowns going to wide receivers Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett, this was Edelman near his Gronk-less best.

But in Week 2, he deferred to the one-game phenomenon that was “Patriots wide receiver Antonio Brown,” and he was hardly needed in a 43-0 victory.

In Week 3, Edelman reasserted himself with Brown no longer on the team.

But then in Week 4, Edelman and the Pats passing game struggled against the Bills. Here’s the thing: The Bills have been increasingly stout against the pass since defense-focused head coach Sean McDermott took over the team in 2017. On top of that, New Era Field is one of the toughest stadiums for visitors in the NFL. Brady completed just 46.2% of his passes. Edelman can be excused for his Week 4 shortfall.

Against the Redskins, Edelman is likely to look like the version of himself from Weeks 1 and 3. The Redskins are No. 29 with a 31.6% pass-defense DVOA, and they have allowed the second-most production to wide receivers this year with 39.2 FanDuel points per game.

In the slot, Edelman should run most of his routes against cornerback Fabian Moreau, who has an unsavory 42.0 PFF coverage grade this year and 68.8% catch rate allowed for his career. Moreau missed Weeks 1-2 to injury, but in Week 3 he played on the outside before shifting to the slot in Week 4.

His move to the interior was less than scholarly. On seven targets, he got learned with a 6-84-0 receiving line and 66 yards after the catch. Giants slot receiver Sterling Shepard in particular gave him a stern lecturing with 4-48-0 receiving on four targets. If Shepard can school Moreau in that fashion, I can’t imagine the education Edelman can impart.

Edelman (chest) is dealing with an injury, but he played through it last week, and he has practiced on a limited basis each day this week. He’s playing on Sunday.

Given the targets we can reasonably project for him and the advantageousness of his matchup, Edelman is awfully tempting for cash games and tournaments, especially on FanDuel, where Edelman is $6,500. He hasn’t been that cheap since Week 5 last year.

The Pats have a slate-high 28.5-point implied Vegas total. Bang a gong.

Edelman is the No. 1 FanDuel wide receiver in the CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner and SportsGeek Models.

Marquise Brown: Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers, 44.5 O/U

Hollywood did nothing in the preseason because of a foot injury, but since the regular season started, the first-round rookie speedster has flashed.

  • Week 1 (at Dolphins): 28.7 FanDuel points, 4-147-2 receiving on five targets
  • Week 2 (vs. Cardinals): 12.6 FanDuel points, 8-86-0 receiving on 13 targets
  • Week 3 (at Chiefs): 5.9 FanDuel points, 2-49-0 receiving on nine targets
  • Week 4 (vs. Browns): 4.2 FanDuel points, 4-22-0 receiving on seven targets

Sure, Brown is inconsistent. He’s a raw rookie adapting to the NFL and dependent on pass-uncertain quarterback Lamar Jackson. As such, Brown is a cash-game nonstarter, but his volatility makes him GPP perfection.

Brown is No. 3 with 633 air yards and yards after the catch combined and No. 7 with 2.45 yards per route.

Although the Ravens are a run-first team, Brown is tied for No. 19 in the league with his team-high 34 targets. It’s not as if he’s a usage-contingent player. His role and volume on the team are unquestioned.

Here’s what I had to say about Brown in my 2019 post-draft rookie dynasty rankings.

Hollywood enters the NFL with three consecutive seasons of good production. As a true freshman, Brown dominated the community college ranks, leading College of the Canyons in receiving with 50 receptions, 754 yards and 10 touchdowns in 10 games and chipping in two return touchdowns.

As a four-star junior college recruit, Brown transferred to Oklahoma. And as a sophomore he served as quarterback Baker Mayfield’s top playmaker, leading the Sooners with 1,095 yards and finishing second with 57 receptions and seven touchdowns.

Then last year he put up even better receiving numbers with Kyler Murray, finishing first on the team with 75 receptions and 1,318 yards and second with 10 touchdowns.

His NFL situation, though, is less than ideal: Even so, Brown is likely to be the No. 1 receiver in Baltimore right away, so his target volume should be respectable and he could have some week-winning performances as opposing defenses focus on the running game.

Brown has DeSean Jackson-level potential.

Really, that’s who Hollywood is: He’s the 2019 version of 2008 D-Jax.

The Steelers are No. 20 with a 57.5 PFF coverage grade, and they have struggled this year to contain field-stretching receivers.

  • Phillip Dorsett (Week 1, home): 23.5 FanDuel points, 4-95-2 receiving on four targets
  • D.K. Metcalf (Week 2, away): 13.6 FanDuel points, 3-61-1 receiving on seven targets
  • Dante Pettis (Week 3, home): 10.0 FanDuel points, 4-20-1 receiving on five targets

Brown’s one-on-one matchup with cornerback Joe Haden is good. While Hollywood is one of the league’s fastest players, Haden is a 30-year-old vet who had limited speed (4.52-second 40-yard dash) when he entered the NFL almost a decade ago. The odds are he hasn’t gotten significantly faster since 2010.

For the second week in a row, Marquise is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Raybon and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating.

Auden Tate: Cincinnati Bengals (-3) vs. Arizona Cardinals, 47 O/U

The investment thesis for Tate is simple: He’s way too cheap.

Tate is discounted in two main ways.

First, he played on Monday Night Football last week, but salaries were set on Sunday night, so Tate’s Week 5 pricing doesn’t take into account the fact that in Week 4 he had a season-high 91% snap rate and once again was regularly targeted within the normal flow of the offense. With two straight weeks of consistent usage, it’s much easier for us to rely on him with confidence.

On top of that, teammate John Ross (clavicle, injured reserve) hadn’t been injured before salaries were set, so Tate is likely to have an even greater target share than is accounted for in his pricing.

Since his insertion into the starting lineup, Tate has been a reliable producer.

  • Week 3 (at Bills): 9.8 FanDuel points, 88% snap rate, 6-88-0 receiving on 10 targets
  • Week 4 (at Steelers): 7.0 FanDuel points, 91% snap rate, 4-50-0 receiving on six targets

The sample is small, and Tate’s not blowing up opposing corners, but at least Tate has been consistent and reasonably productive with his opportunity.

And Tate’s matchup is great. On defense, the Cardinals are without starting outside cornerbacks Patrick Peterson (suspension) and Robert Alford (leg, injured reserve), and on offense, they lead the league in offensive pace (23.88 seconds per play), thereby creating extra opportunities for opposing offenses. Even though the Bengals are struggling, they could approach 80 offensive snaps this week.

Given how cheap he is and the usage we can expect from him, Tate is a legitimate possibility for cash games. He’s not the most conventional of options, but he affords a great deal of roster flexibility. With Tate, you can jam into your lineup almost anyone else you want.

Tate is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +5.32 Projected Plus/Minus and 96% Bargain Rating.

Keenan-Allen

Photo Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Keenan Allen

Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers ($7,300 DK, $7,500 FD): Keenan is the No. 1 receiver in the league with 25.9 DraftKings points per game, 47 targets, 34 receptions, 452 yards receiving and 651 air yards and yards after the catch combined. Cornerback Chris Harris Jr. presents him with a tough shadow matchup, but that will serve to diminish his GPP ownership rate. Allen has a 96% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,100 DK, $7,700 FD): After a slow start to the season, Evans has put up a 12-279-4 receiving line on 22 targets over the past two weeks. He leads the league with 581 air yards. He has a shadow matchup with cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who has allowed league-worst marks with 24 receptions and 380 yards receiving. Last year, Evans had a 6-163-1 receiving line on just seven targets in two games against Lattimore.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,900 DK, $7,800 FD): Among wide receivers, Godwin is No. 3 with 386 yards receiving, No. 6 with 148 yards after the catch and No. 13 with 389 air yards. Godwin has an exploitable matchup against cornerback P.J. Williams, who has allowed a 71.6% catch rate since moving to the slot last year.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,500 DK, $6,700 FD): Boyd is No. 4 in the league with 39 targets, and he should continue to see the volume with teammates A.J. Green (ankle) and John Ross (clavicle, injured reserve) on the sideline. In the slot he will match up with cornerback Tramaine Brock, who has a 59.7 PFF coverage grade and has allowed a 12-239-2 receiving line this year on 18 targets.

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals ($6,000 DK, $5,800 FD): The godfather is tied for No. 13 with 36 targets, and he should get as much volume as he can handle with teammates Christian Kirk (ankle) and Damiere Byrd (hamstring) expected to sit. Fitz is No. 6 with 16.0 expected fantasy receiving points per game (per the RotoViz Screener). The Bengals are No. 31 with a laughable 37.5 PFF coverage grade.

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears ($5,600 DK, $6,900 FD): Robinson easily leads the Bears with 34 targets, 24 receptions, 280 receiving yards and 338 air yards — but he has zero touchdowns. He’ll find the end zone at some point. The Raiders are No. 29 with a 47.6 PFF coverage grade.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay Packers ($5,600 DK, $6,300 FD): MVS is the locked-in No. 2 receiver for the Packers, ranking just behind teammate Davante Adams (toe) with 28 targets, 16 receptions, 217 yards receiving and 344 air yards. With Adams expected not to play, MVS will likely serve as the No. 1 receiving option for quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Phillip Dorsett, New England Patriots ($4,900 DK, $5,400 FD): Dorsett leads the Patriots with 292 air yards, and he has a 12-158-3 receiving line on 20 targets and 3-21-0 rushing in his three non-Antonio games. The Redskins are No. 29 with a 31.6% pass-defense DVOA.

Will Fuller, Houston Texans ($4,500 DK, $5,700 FD): Fuller is No. 12 with 399 air yards. He has just 8.1 DraftKings points per game this year, but in his 15 games with quarterback Deshaun Watson, he’s averaged 15.6. The Fuller onslaught will come.

Robby Anderson, New York Jets ($4,500 DK, $5,500 FD): Anderson should be rested and ready coming off the bye. He seems unlikely to have quarterback Sam Darnold (mononucleosis), but the Jets will have a pass-heavy game script as big road dogs. The Eagles have allowed a league-high 51.6 DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers.

J.J. Nelson, Oakland Raiders ($3,400 DK, $5,000 FD): I’m returning to the J.J. writeup well. After playing 78% of the snaps and putting up a 4-36-1 receiving line in Week 3, Nelson (knee) missed Week 4, and he’s been limited this week. But he’s practiced each day, so he seems likely to play. If the speedster is seeing regular action, he warrants GPP exposure. In his eight career games with a 70% snap rate, Nelson has averaged 16.5 DraftKings points. He’s extreme Hollywood arbitrage.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: DeAndre Hopkins
Photo credit: John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports

About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.