The Week 4 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Sept. 29, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically the industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
All odds below as of Thursday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).
Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Travis Kelce: $7,200 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel
- Austin Hooper: $4,300 DraftKings; $6,400 FanDuel
- O.J. Howard: $3,900 DraftKings; $5,900 FanDuel
- Noah Fant: $2,600 DraftKings; $4,600 FanDuel
Travis Kelce: Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Detroit Lions, 55 Over/Under
In 2018, Kelce had a historic fantasy season for a tight end. Not surprising. And his 2019 season has gone pretty well so far.
- Week 1 (at Jaguars): 10.3 FanDuel points, 3-88-0 receiving on eight targets
- Week 2 (at Raiders): 20.2 FanDuel points, 7-107-1 receiving on nine targets
- Week 3 (vs. Ravens): 12.4 FanDuel points, 7-89-0 receiving on eight targets
He’s No. 3 at the position with 14.3 FanDuel points per game and No. 1 with 363 air yards and yards after the catch combined.
And yet it’s undeniable that Kelce’s start to the campaign has been a smidgen disappointing. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill (clavicle) has been out since his in-game Week 1 injury, and yet Kelce hasn’t seen any increase in his number of opportunities per game. All of the extra targets, yards and touchdowns that daily fantasy investors hoped would shift to Kelce have instead gone to wide receivers Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman.
Additionally, Kelce’s performance seems relatively restrained in comparison to what the Chiefs offense is doing as a whole. As impossible as this might seem, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has played even better than he played last year. He leads the league with 1,195 yards passing, 10 touchdowns passing and 12.2 adjusted yards per attempt. It’s a little tilting to know that Mahomes has improved — especially with Hill out — and Kelce’s year-over-year performance has slightly declined.
- Travis Kelce (2018, 18 games): 14.9 FanDuel points, +3.83 Plus/Minus, 61.1% Consistency Rating
- Travis Kelce (2019, three games): 14.3 FanDuel points, +2.51 Plus/Minus, 66.7% Consistency Rating
Finally, Kelce’s performance has underwhelmed within the context of what other tight ends have done this year. Mark Andrews and Darren Waller have emerged as top-five players at the position and reasonable weekly alternatives to Kelce. Will Dissly and Greg Olsen have returned from injuries to put up Kelce-lite numbers. Evan Engram is currently the No. 1 fantasy tight end and seems destined for a full season of target nirvana in an offense without a ball-dominant wide receiver.
Kelce’s position at the top of the league-wide tight end depth chart is not as secure as it once was.
Even so, Kelce is still the King of Olympus. Dating back to his first All-Pro campaign in 2016, Kelce leads all tight ends with 13.1 FanDuel points per game, and he’s provided strong salary-adjusted value with his +2.77 Plus/Minus.
Not including playoffs, Kelce has been a top-12 fantasy tight end in 70% of his games since Week 1 of the 2016 season (per the RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
Kelce is a model of consistency. For a guy to disappoint with 14.3 FanDuel points per game, he has to be pretty good in the first place.
There’s nothing especially exploitable about Kelce’s matchup, but it definitely isn’t bad. Safeties Quandre Diggs and Will Harris seem likely to be the players who defend Kelce the most. Diggs has a 52.0 coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus), and Harris is a rookie with just 50 NFL coverage snaps to his name. And besides, if Kelce’s not going against an All-Pro safety, his matchup is automatically good enough anyway.
The Chiefs have a slate-high 30.5-point implied Vegas total and are highly inclined to pass, which they do better than any other team in the league.
I liked this analysis from @benbbaldwin but wanted to visualize it in a different way:
This compares the delta of pass and run efficiencies vs. how often passing and running plays are called.
WOW at the Chiefs. https://t.co/LVkltvYLYe pic.twitter.com/0qlbfzC0Bb
— Lee Sharpe (@LeeSharpeNFL) September 26, 2019
Kelce is expensive per usual, but for roster constructions that allow for a top-tier tight end, he’s an option in cash game and guaranteed prize pools. And given the fact that Kelce since 2014 has had a 0.78 correlation with his quarterbacks, he is incredibly stackable with Mahomes in tournaments.
Kelce leads all tight ends with his median and ceiling projections and is the unanimous No. 1 tight end in our Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with a +4.39 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends and 99% Bargain Rating.
Austin Hooper: Atlanta Falcons (-4) vs. Tennessee Titans, 47 O/U
Last week, Hooper was at the top of the Freedman Model, and he put up 24.6 DraftKings points with a 6-66-2 receiving line on seven targets.
Of course, here’s what I said in the Week 3 TE Breakdown.
In full disclosure, I’m not that interested in him. Definitely not in cash. Almost certainly not in tournaments. Hooper is just the type of tight end I never want to roster.
He’s just good enough to be a low-end TE1. But he’s not reliable enough to trust in cash games. And Hooper’s not dynamic enough to make me want him in guaranteed prize pools.
In Hooper’s 48 career games, just once has he had 100-plus yards receiving. Only thrice has he had double-digit targets. And never has he had multiple touchdowns.
I do see why he’s popping in my Model: He’s top-eight at the position with 15 targets on the year, and he has a good matchup against the Colts.
With his matchup, it is reasonable to expect that Hooper will finish on the higher end of his normal range of outcomes — and he’ll do so at minimal ownership.
That’s not worth nothing.
So when it comes to Hooper, I almost (but definitely don’t) know what I’m talking about.
I still tend to think of Hooper as being behind wide receiver Calvin Ridley and maybe even slot receiver Mohamed Sanu in target priority, but perhaps I’m wrong: Hooper is top-two on the Falcons with 22 targets, 19 receptions, 177 yards receiving and two receiving touchdowns.
To this point in the season, he’s straight-up outclassing Ridley and Sanu.
- Austin Hooper (2019, three games): 16.2 DraftKings points, +9.88 Plus/Minus, 100% Consistency Rating
- Calvin Ridley (2019, three games): 15.2 DraftKings points, +4.74 Plus/Minus, 66.7% Consistency Rating
- Mohamed Sanu (2019, three games): 10 DraftKings points, +1.75 Plus/Minus, 66.7% Consistency Rating
We clearly should not expect Hooper to finish the season with more fantasy production than Ridley, but his early-season success is notable, as is the fact that Hooper frequently has GPP ownership rates below 5%. In general, the market has been too low on Hooper from multiple angles.
In general, I have respect for the safety duo of Kevin Byard and Kenny Vaccaro: Last year, the Titans were No. 11 with a -10.6% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends (per Football Outsiders).
But this year the Titans have been less unforgiving. It’s not as if tight ends have been going off against them, but they’ve allowed steady production to the position.
- David Njoku (Week 1, at home): 13.7 DraftKings points, 4-37-1 receiving on six targets
- Eric Ebron (Week 2, on road): 11.5 DraftKings points, 3-25-1 receiving on four targets
- James O’Shaughnessy (Week 3, at home): 9.8 DraftKings points, 2-18-1 receiving on three targets
When O’Shaughnessy gets almost 10 DraftKings points against you, something is less than optimal with your pass defense.
I can’t believe I’m saying this after what I said last week, but Hooper is probably viable as a cheap option in cash games and tournaments given his current usage and matchup.
Hooper is the No. 1 tight end in the Levitan, Koerner, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for DraftKings.
O.J. Howard: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5) at Los Angeles Rams, 49 O/U
Howard has had a painful start to the season, but at least in Week 3 he bounced back with a game that wasn’t totally embarrassing.
- Week 1 (vs. 49ers): 6.2 DraftKings points, 4-32-0 receiving on five targets
- Week 2 (at Panthers): 0.0 DraftKings points, zero targets
- Week 3 (vs. Giants): 9.6 DraftKings points, 3-66-0 receiving on four targets
He had a season-low 75% snap rate last week, but he also ran a season-high 28 routes. It seems that the Buccaneers are starting to realize that they need to use Howard more as a receiver and less as an inline blocker. After Howard’s Week 2 no-show, head coach Bruce Arians said that “the balls will come” for Howard, and Week 3 suggested that Arians’ statement wasn’t just lip service.
Howard has a subpar matchup for Week 4: Safeties Eric Weddle and John Johnson are good pass defenders. Weddle is 35 years old, but he had 10 interceptions for the Ravens in three Pro-Bowl seasons for the Ravens before joining the Rams, and he has two All-Pro campaigns to his name. And the third-year Johnson has had PFF coverage grades in excess of 80.0 in each of his first two NFL seasons.
If you roster Howard this week, it won’t be because of his matchup.
But he does have two big factors in his favor.
Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end O.J. Howard (80).
First, dynamic slot receiver Chris Godwin (hip) is questionable and missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. If he’s out this weekend, Howard will have a chance to inherit a significant portion of Godwin’s between-the-numbers targets.
Second, he’s almost certain to have a sub-5% GPP ownership rate because of his 2019 production and the other options on the slate. If he Howard goes off, he could be a true differentiator.
Howard seems far too risky for cash games, but for tournaments, he has some contrarian appeal, especially on DraftKings, where he has a 92% Bargain Rating and is the No. 1 tight end in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
Noah Fant: Denver Broncos (-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 38 O/U
I’ll be honest: I checked this multiple times. More than twice. Sure enough, Fant is the No. 1 tight end in the Raybon Model for DraftKings.
It’s not as if Fant has done much in his first three NFL games to distinguish himself.
- Week 1 (at Raiders): 4.4 DraftKings points, 2-29-0 receiving on five targets, -5 rushing yards
- Week 2 (vs. Bears): 7.3 DraftKings points, 4-33-0 receiving on four targets
- Week 3 (at Packers): 5.7 DraftKings points, 3-37-0 receiving on three targets
But at least he has been efficient with 9.0 yards per target, and he owns a nice 69.0% snap rate, which is pretty good for a rookie. Most importantly, he’s No. 8 at the position with 85 routes run this year. The production for Fant has been sparse, but his underlying indicators are positive.
And he’s a talented player: In my post-draft 2019 rookie dynasty rankings, I had Fant as the No. 7 player on my board.
Ever since Kirk Ferentz took over as head coach at Iowa in 1999, the school has transformed itself into Tight End U.
Fant has been groomed for professional success since his first day on campus. Despite sharing the field with T.J. Hockenson, the supremely athletic Fant led the Hawkeyes with 11 and seven touchdowns receiving over the past two seasons.
As a rookie, Fant will probably be volatile, which means he’ll be hard to trust as a weekly starter. But I still expect him to have some big performances.
And that’s basically where we are with Fant now. He absolutely shouldn’t be rostered in cash games, but he’s intriguing for GPPs because he is talented, on the field and running routes.
The Broncos-Jaguars game has a slate-low 38-point over/under: That’s not good. At the same time, it pretty much ensures that Fant will have a nearly nonexistent GPP ownership rate.
And his matchup with the Jags is intriguing. Safeties Ronnie Harrison and Jarrod Wilson and linebacker Myles Jack last year all had below-average PFF coverage grades.
- Ronnie Harrison: 68.9
- Jarrod Wilson: 68.7
- Myles Jack: 66.5
This year, they have combined to allow 229 yards receiving with a 75% completion rate on targets in their coverage. And the Jags have struggled to defend the two big, athletic move tight ends they’ve faced.
- Travis Kelce (Week 1, on road): 11.8 DraftKings points, 3-88-0 receiving on eight targets
- Delanie Walker (Week 3, on road): 13.4 DraftKings points, 7-64-0 receiving on nine targets
Fant is clearly not in Kelce and Walker’s class as a player — at least not yet — but he is more than their equal as an athlete (94th-percentile SPARQ score, per PlayerProfiler.com), and Harrison, Wilson and Jack might be outmatched by his physical abilities.
And they might struggle all the more with the elevation in Denver.
It won’t take much to be overweight on Fant in GPPs, and he does have underappreciated potential against the Jags: This could be the week he breaks out.
Upside Tight Ends for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Evan Engram, New York Giants ($5,700 DK, $6,800 FD): Engram is my No. 1 tight end this week in The Action Network fantasy football rankings. The third-year tight end leads the Giants with 30 targets, 23 receptions, 277 yards receiving, 149 yards after the catch and two touchdowns receiving. He’s the No. 1 fantasy tight end to this point in the year with 22.9 points per game on DraftKings, where he leads the position with his +3.99 Projected Plus/Minus.
Darren Waller, Oakland Raiders ($5,200 DK, $6,100 FD): Waller leads the Raiders with 29 targets, 26 receptions, 267 yards receiving and 150 yards after the catch. He’s scoreless, but he’s facing a Matt Eberflus-coordinated Colts defense that funnels production to the tight ends (as evidenced by Hooper’s performance last week). The Colts are No. 29 with a 21.2% pass DVOA against tight ends. Waller has position-high floor projections in Models.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens ($5,000 DK, $6,100 FD): Andrews (foot) is dealing with a nagging injury, but he played through it last week and saw seven targets, even though he did little with them. Andrews is the No. 2 fantasy tight end with 20.2 DraftKings and 15 FanDuel points per game, and he’s the 1A pass-catching option on the Ravens, just behind wide receiver Marquise Brown. The Browns are likely to be without strong safety Morgan Burnett (quad), who missed Week 3, and backup safety Jermaine has a 41.5 PFF coverage grade and has already allowed three receiving touchdowns this year.
Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans ($4,800 DK, $5,700 FD): Walker is once again a top-eight fantasy tight end with 14.6 DraftKings and 11.9 FanDuel points per game, and he easily leads the Titans with 21 targets, 16 receptions, 158 receiving yards, 182 air yards and two touchdowns receiving. The Falcons lost strong safety Keanu Neal (Achilles, injured reserve) for the season last week, and backup safety Kemal Ishmael has allowed a 74.4% completion rate for his career and hasn’t been a regular pass defender since 2016.
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers ($4,200 DK, $6,000 FD): Olsen has triumphantly returned from the injuries that hindered his 2017-18 campaigns. He once again is top-two on the Panthers with 25 targets, 16 receptions, 221 yards receiving, 253 air yards and two touchdown receptions. He had a strong 6-75-2 receiving performance on seven targets last week in quarterback Kyle Allen’s first start of the year. Texans strong safety Tashaun Gipson has allowed all eight of the targets in his coverage this year to be completed.
Eric Ebron, Indianapolis Colts ($4,000 DK, $5,300 FD): Ebron might actually lead the Colts in targets with wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (quad) tentatively expected to sit. Ebron had 14 touchdowns last year, and the Raiders are dead last with a 39.7% pass DVOA against tight ends.
Will Dissly, Seattle Seahawks ($3,600 DK, $5,400 FD): Dissly has picked up where his injury-shortened 2018 season left off. He’s a top-eight fantasy tight end with 14.1 DraftKings points per game. In his six full career games, he has averaged 13.3 DraftKings points with 45.8 yards and 0.83 touchdowns on 4.5 targets and 3.2 receptions per game. The Seahawks this week traded away tight end Nick Vannett, so Dissly is likely to see even more snaps. The Cardinals have allowed a league-high 31.3 DraftKings points per game to tight ends. Strong safety D.J. Swearinger owns an abominable 37.5 PFF coverage grade and has allowed an 8-103-3 receiving line on 11 targets.
Vernon Davis, Washington Redskins ($3,400 DK, $5,100 FD): Davis will once again start in place of the injured Jordan Reed (concussion). In his 18 Redskins games without Reed, Davis has averaged 4.9 targets per game. He has position-high Leverage Scores on DraftKings and FanDuel on account of his low ownership and high ceiling projections.
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions ($3,300 DK, $5,200 FD): Hockenson’s 6-131-1 receiving breakout in Week 1 seems so long ago. But Hock has still had a snap rate of at least 60% in each of the past two weeks, and the Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to tight ends this year with 16.4 per game.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87)
Photo credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
