The Week 4 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Sept. 29, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically the industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
Odds as of Thursday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are five running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Christian McCaffrey: $8,800 DraftKings; $9,000 FanDuel
- Austin Ekeler: $8,000 DraftKings; $8,100 FanDuel
- David Johnson: $6,800 DraftKings; $6,800 FanDuel
- Kerryon Johnson: $5,400 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel
- Justin Jackson: $4,100 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey: Carolina Panthers (+4.5) at Houston Texans, 47 Over/Under
McCaffrey is the No. 2 fantasy back in the league with 28.0 DraftKings and 23.5 FanDuel points per game. As good as he was last year, he might be even better this year, and that’s despite a Week 2 performance that was absolutely horrendous.
- Week 1 (vs. Rams): 45.9 DraftKings points, 19-128-2 rushing, 10-81-0 receiving on 11 targets
- Week 2 (vs. Buccaneers): 7.3 DraftKings points, 16-37-0 rushing, 2-16-0 receiving on six targets
- Week 3 (at Cardinals): 30.8 DraftKings points, 24-153-1 rushing, 3-35-0 receiving on four targets
In Week 3, though, he bounced back in a big way with backup quarterback Kyle Allen filling in for injured starter Cam Newton (foot). Newton reportedly has a Lisfranc injury and has already been declared out for Week 4.
With Newton out last week, McCaffrey had the most carries he’s seen since Week 3 of last season, and he also had the best fantasy rushing day of his career. McCaffrey is almost a stone-cold lock to see 20-plus opportunities (carries plus targets) this week as the clear leader of the Panthers offense.
In his two representative games without Newton, McCaffrey has McCrushed.
RB Christian McCaffrey’s two games without Cam Newton (minus meaningless Week 17 last year):
– Vs. Falcons (Week 16, 2018): 21-101-0 rushing, 12-77-0 receiving on 13 targets
– At Cardinals (Week 3, 2019): 24-153-1 rushing, 3-35-0 receiving on 4 targets
Newton is OUT this week.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) September 25, 2019
And it’s not really a surprise that McCaffrey has done well as the centerpiece of his offense: He’s No. 1 at the position with 25.7 DraftKings points, a +6.30 Plus/Minus and 73.7% Consistency Rating in his 19 games since the start of last year.
There’s a lot to like about McCaffrey: He leads the slate with his median, ceiling and floor projections, and he has almost no competition for backfield touches. Last year, he played an obnoxious 91.3% of his team’s offensive snaps, and this year he’s bumped his snap rate up to 97.6%.
Of all the opportunities, touches and yards to go to a Panthers back this year, McCaffrey has respectively gotten 94.1%, 93.7% and 97.4%. He has absolutely no competition in the backfield.
And he’s almost unrivaled in the league: McCaffrey leads all backs this year with his 66.3 expected fantasy points, and only twice since last season has he not finished as a top-24 fantasy back in any given week (per the RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
And each year of his career, he’s become more efficient as a runner, based on his fantasy points over expectation per attempt (per the RotoViz Screener).
- 2019: 0.23
- 2018: 0.07
- 2017: -0.05
Pound for pound, he is probably the league’s best all-around back.
The Texans haven’t been bad against opposing backfields this year, but they have allowed four backs to score 12-plus DraftKings points in three games.
- Alvin Kamara (Week 1, at home): 23.9 DraftKings points, 13-97-0 rushing, 7-72-0 receiving on eight targets
- Latavius Murray (Week 1, at home): 12.7 DraftKings points, 6-43-1 rushing, 2-4-0 receiving on three targets
- Leonard Fournette (Week 2, on road): 12.7 DraftKings points, 15-47-0 rushing, 4-40-0 receiving on six targets
- Austin Ekeler (Week 3, at home): 15.1 DraftKings points, 9-36-0 rushing, 7-45-0 receiving on seven targets
If Ekeler can get 15.1 points in a mediocre game and if Kamara can get 23.9 points without scoring a touchdown, I like the odds for what McCaffrey could do against the Texans even if he doesn’t have a big game.
And he actually could have a big day: The Texans are No. 31 with a 52.8 run-defense grade (per Pro Football Focus).
Although McCaffrey is the slate’s most expensive back, he will likely be popular in both cash games and guaranteed prize pools. He was off the main slate in Week 2, but in the other weeks, high-stakes players have owned him at higher rates than their lower-stakes peers.
- Week 1: $20 Millionaire Maker – 20.24%, $3000 Luxury Box – 23.13%
- Week 3: $20 Millionaire Maker – 22.17%, $3000 Luxury Box – 33.67%
And in Weeks 1 and 3, McCaffrey was in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker-winning lineups. The sharps have been on him.
Given McCaffrey’s ability as a receiver, you might want to use our Lineup Builder to stack McCaffrey with Allen in GPPs.
McCaffrey is the No. 1 back in the Levitan Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends. He’s also the top option in the Raybon Model for FanDuel, where he leads all players with his +4.04 Projected Plus/Minus.
Austin Ekeler: Los Angeles Chargers (-16) at Miami Dolphins, 44 O/U
UPDATE (Sat. 9/28): Justin Jackson (calf) is out. Melvin Gordon is expected to play in a reserve role. Ekeler is still a top-tier back.
The investment thesis for Ekeler is straightforward. He’s the No. 3 fantasy back with 21.6 FanDuel points per game, and this week he’s facing a Dolphins defense that has allowed a league-high average of 32.3 FanDuel points to opposing backfields.
The Chargers have a slate-high 30.5-point implied total.
Almost nothing else needs to be said.
Thanks to the holdout of starter Melvin Gordon — who is reporting this week but will miss Sunday’s game — the undersized Ekeler (5-foot-9, 199 pounds) has been thrust into the lead-back role for the Chargers. And although he’s built more like Danny Woodhead than LaDainian Tomlinson, the versatile Ekeler has been downright LT-esque with his production.
- Week 1 (vs. Colts): 39.4 FanDuel points, 12-58-1 rushing, 6-96-2 receiving on seven targets
- Week 2 (at Lions): 24.3 FanDuel points, 17-66-1 rushing, 6-67-0 receiving on six targets
- Week 3 (vs. Texans): 15.1 FanDuel points, 9-36-0 rushing, 7-45-0 receiving on seven targets
In his 13 career games with 10-plus touches, Ekeler has averaged 17.0 FanDuel points, 89.4 scrimmage yards and 0.85 all-purpose touchdowns.
Ekeler has a great matchup against the Dolphins, who are in full-on tank mode. Gone from last year’s front seven are edge defenders Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn, tackle Akeem Spence and linebacker Kiko Alonso. Meanwhile, the Chargers are No. 5 with 5.2 running back yards per attempt (per Football Outsiders). The Chargers should be able to run all over the Dolphins.
Lead backs over the past three weeks have turned the Dolphins into chum.
- Mark Ingram (Week 1, on road): 22.7 FanDuel points, 14-107-2 rushing, no targets
- Sony Michel (Week 2, on road): 12.5 FanDuel points, 21-85-1 rushing, no targets
- Ezekiel Elliott (Week 3, at home): 14.9 FanDuel points, 19-125-0 rushing, 2-14-0 receiving on three targets
The Dolphins are No. 31 in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA with an 18.4% mark, and they are No. 32 with a horrendous 118.2% pass DVOA against running backs. No team has allowed more explosive runs than the Dolphins have with 20 (per Sharp Football Stats).
I expect Ekeler to be popular in cash games and GPPs, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating and is the No. 1 back in the Freedman Model.
David Johnson: Arizona Cardinals (+5) vs. Seattle Seahawks, 48 O/U
Johnson has underwhelmed this season: He’s still in the top 10 at the position with his 15.4 FanDuel points per game, but he just can’t seem to get going.
- Week 1 (vs. Lions): 22.7 FanDuel points, 18-82-0 rushing, 6-55-1 receiving on seven targets
- Week 2 (at Ravens): 7.9 FanDuel points, 7-14-1 rushing, 1-0-0 receiving on one target
- Week 3 (vs. Panthers): 15.5 FanDuel points, 11-37-0 rushing, 6-28-1 receiving on nine targets
His 137-yard, one-touchdown performance in Week 1 was nice to see, but it was aided by a 10-minute overtime, and he’s done little since, averaging just 79 yards in Weeks 2-3 on 28 opportunities.
I don’t want to diminish Johnson’s scoring prowess, because he seems to have an innate will for finding the end zone, but if not for his two touchdowns over the past two weeks, he would have been a disaster.
The truth is that the 2016 All-Pro compiler who had an NFL-high 373 touches, 2,118 yards and 20 touchdowns — that guy’s not coming back.
But even with his lackadaisical production, Johnson is still more productive than he was last year.
- 2019 (three games): 15.4 FanDuel points, +3.03 Plus/Minus, 66.7% Consistency Rating
- 2018 (16 games): 13.9 FanDuel points, +1.18 Plus/Minus, 50% Consistency Rating
He’s still a three-down lead back who gets 17.7 opportunities per game, sees 80.0% of the offensive snaps, has 100% of the team’s backfield goal-line work and plays in the league’s fastest-paced system.
Johnson still has value despite his diminished returns, and if priced cheaply enough, he can be an attractive daily fantasy option. As it happens, Johnson is dangerously cheap this week on FanDuel.
At $6,800, he is less than not only McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook and Ekeler but also Mark Ingram, Nick Chubb, Marlon Mack, Derrick Henry, Chris Carson and Phillip Lindsay. There’s nothing wrong with most of those guys — and Johnson should be cheaper than the first three — but he is the No. 10 back by salary despite having top-five median and ceiling projections.
If you use the FantasyLabs Trends tool to sort through Johnson’s game log by salary, you’ll see that Johnson hasn’t had a FanDuel price this low since Week 15 of his rookie season: Johnson is cheaper than he’s been on FanDuel at any point over the past 3.75 years.
That’s a helluva discount, and many fantasy players won’t want to pass it up: We’re projecting Johnson to be the most rostered back this weekend.
Since his 2016 breakout season, Johnson has fared well in his four games against the division rival Seahawks.
- Fantasy Production: 19.9 FanDuel points, +4.88 Plus/Minus, 75% Consistency Rating
- Football Production: 121.8 yards and one touchdown from scrimmage on 25 carries, 7 targets and 4.5 receptions
Although the Seahawks have a tough defense by reputation — and there’s no doubt that linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright are tough-nosed ballhawks — they aren’t nearly as imposing as they were a half decade ago.
The Seahawks are No. 29 with a 45.9 PFF tackling grade and No. 26 with a 31.1% pass DVOA against running backs.
I have my doubts as to whether Johnson will be able to break out of his pseudo slump in Week 4: The Cardinals are No. 30 with a poor 42.8 PFF run-blocking grade. And that’s why I might not have him in cash games.
But in GPPs, even with his inflated ownership rate, he warrants some strategic exposure.
Johnson is the No. 1 FanDuel back in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner and SportsGeek Models.
Photo Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kerryon Johnson
Kerryon Johnson: Detroit Lions (+6.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 54.5 O/U
Whereas Kerryon flashed as a rookie, he has struggled to get going in his second season.
- 2018 (10 games): 14.6 DraftKings points, +4.70 Plus/Minus, 80.0% Consistency Rating
- 2019 (three games): 12.1 DraftKings points, -0.33 Plus/Minus, 33.3% Consistency Rating
Last year, Johnson was a big-play runner and contributing receiver: He averaged 5.4 yards per carry and 3.9 targets per game. This year, though, those numbers have dropped down to an embarrassing 2.6 and 2.0.
- Week 1 (at Cardinals): 8.2 DraftKings points, 16-49-0 rushing, 2-13-0 receiving on two targets
- Week 2 (vs. Chargers): 16.8 DraftKings points, 12-41-0 rushing, 2-47-1 receiving on three targets
- Week 3 (at Eagles): 11.3 DraftKings points, 20-36-1 rushing, 1-7-0 receiving on one target
But even with his rushing inefficiency and receiving drop-off, Johnson has potential thanks to his above-average and consistent usage: He’s one of just 12 backs this year with at least 12 carries and a target in each game.
And this week he has more than a few factors in his favor.
The Lions are underdogs, and that puts him on the positive side of his reverse favorite/dog splits.
- As underdog (eight games): 14.9 DraftKings points, +4.22 Plus/Minus, 75% Consistency Rating
- As favorite (five games): 12.7 DraftKings points, +2.46 Plus/Minus, 60% Consistency Rating
As a dog, he’s likelier to have a pass-leaning game script, and targets yield more fantasy points than carries. So it actually might benefit him that the Lions are dogs.
Additionally, the Lions-Chiefs game has a slate-high 54.5-point over/under. That’s a deliciously high number, and if the over actually hits, it will be hard for Kerryon not to have a respectable fantasy performance.
And he has a good matchup against the Chiefs, who last year allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing backfields with 30.9 per game. And they aren’t any better this year, ranking dead last with a 42.6 PFF run-defense grade and 22.0% run-defense DVOA.
Because of game script and matchup, this actually might be the week in which Johnson gets a boost in target volume and rushing efficiency.
Perhaps most importantly, the Lions cut teammate and early-down hindrance C.J. Anderson before Week 3, and Johnson responded with a career-high 20 carries on a 75% snap rate last week. With more snaps and locked-in opportunities, Johnson now has a significantly higher ceiling.
Kerryon is the No. 1 DraftKings back in the SportsGeek Model.
Justin Jackson: Los Angeles Chargers (-16) at Miami Dolphins, 44 O/U
UPDATE (Sat. 9/28): Justin Jackson (calf) is out.
Like Ekeler, Jackson has a great matchup against the league-worst Dolphins, who have been so bad that even backup running backs have put up decent numbers against them.
- Gus Edwards (Week 1, on road): 5.6 DraftKings points, 17-56-0 rushing, no targets
- James White (Week 2, on road): 11.9 DraftKings points, 3-10-0 rushing, 3-19-1 receiving on four targets
- Rex Burkhead (Week 2, on road): 8.8 DraftKings points, 5-21-0 rushing, 2-47-0 receiving on two targets
- Tony Pollard (Week 3, at home): 24.8 DraftKings points, 13-103-1 rushing, 3-25-0 receiving on three targets
Collectively, these four change-of-pace options averaged 12.8 DraftKings points in three blowout victories.
Given that the Chargers are big favorites and Ekeler isn’t built to withstand the grind of a lead-back workload, the team could look to get Jackson more than his usual allotment of opportunities, especially if the Chargers have a lead and want to run out the clock with the ground game.
And even if all Jackson does is get the six carries and 2.7 targets per game he’s averaged this year, even that might be enough.
With Gordon returning to the team and expected to play in Week 5, this will likely be Jackson’s last chance for a while to get extended run. Who are the Dolphins to stop him from making the most of it?
Jackson is the No. 1 back in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, Raybon and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he leads the position with a +3.80 Projected Plus/Minus and 98% Bargain Rating.
Upside Running Backs for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings ($8,300 DK, $8,300 FD): Cook is the No. 1 fantasy back with 29.1 DraftKings and 24.6 FanDuel points per game. He struggled last year against the division rival Bears with an average of 35 scoreless yards across two games, but that was before run-game guru Gary Kubiak joined the team as an assistant this offseason. Under offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski, the Vikings have an obscene 54.5% rush rate. Cook is likely to have a sub-10% ownership rate on account of his high price and tough matchup.
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams ($7,000 DK, $6,800 FD): Gurley has seen a slight reduction in carries and a massive shortfall in targets and goal-line work to open the year, but he’s a home favorite, so he might find his way into a couple of short-yardage touchdowns. The Buccaneers have held opposing backfields to a league-low 9.4 FanDuel points per game, but Gurley might be able to compensate for his matchup with a sub-5% ownership rate. Gurley is most attractive on FanDuel, where he has a position-high 12 Pro Trends and 98% Bargain Rating.
Mark Ingram, Baltimore Ravens ($6,600 DK, $7,800 FD): Ingram is locked in for 14-plus touches per game as the lead back on a run-heavy high-scoring offense. As a seven-point home favorite, Ingram could enjoy positive game script for much of the contest. Ingram leads the league with five rushing touchdowns as well as five carries inside the opponent five-yard line.
Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts ($6,100 DK, $7,300 FD): Mack leads the league with 61 carries. The Colts are seven-point home favorites, and for his career, Mack has averaged 15.4 DraftKings points per game with a +5.13 Plus/Minus when favored at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Raiders are No. 30 with a 56.6 PFF run-defense grade and 44.0 tackling grade.
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears ($5,300 DK, $6,000 FD): The rookie leads the team in every rushing category with a 37-147-1 stat line. The Bears are 2.5-point home favorites, so Montgomery might benefit from a run-heavy game script. He’s a pass-catching contributor with his 5-47-0 receiving line, and he has all four of the team’s carries inside the opponent five-yard line.
Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos ($5,200 DK, $6,900 FD): Lindsay has control of the Broncos backfield with his 262 yards and two touchdowns on 57 touches. The Jaguars are No. 26 with a 1.1% run-defense DVOA and seem likely to struggle in Denver with the elevation. Lindsay seems likely to have a sub-5% ownership rate.
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons ($5,000 DK, $6,200 FD): Freeman had 16 carries and a 90% snap rate last week due to an in-game injury to teammate Ito Smith (concussion), who seems unlikely for Week 4. The Falcons are four-point home favorites, and since his 2015 breakout season, Freeman has averaged 13.0 DraftKings points per game when favored in Atlanta.
Darrel Williams, Kansas City ($4,700 DK, $5,500 FD): If Damien Williams (knee) is out and LeSean McCoy (ankle) is limited, then Darrel could serve as the lead back in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense. The Lions are No. 27 with a 62.0 PFF run-defense grade.
Wayne Gallman, New York Giants ($4,600 DK, $5,800 FD): Gallman is a cheap option in all formats as the fill-in for injured starter Saquon Barkley (ankle). He is likely to be popular in a suddenly high-scoring offense under rookie quarterback Daniel Jones. The Redskins are No. 28 with a 60.4 PFF run-defense grade, and the Giants are three-point home favorites, so Gallman might enjoy a run-leaning game script.
Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins ($4,500 DK, $5,300 FD): Thompson leads the backfield with a 53.5% snap rate, 35 opportunities and 237 scrimmage yards. Top-two on the team with 23 targets, 16 receptions, 195 yards receiving and 175 yards after the catch, Thompson has a good pass-catching matchup against the Giants, who are No. 25 with a 30.3% pass DVOA against running backs. Thompson has averaged 12.6 DraftKings points per game since his 2017 breakout.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: David Johnson
Photo credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
