As amazing as it seems, after this week, each NFL team will be almost done with the first quarter of their season. We’re starting to get a really good idea of who is ready to push for a playoff spot, who is ready to challenge for the championship, and who will be more concerned with next season’s NFL Draft order.
For the third straight week, Sunday afternoon sets up with 12 games on the main slate on DraftKings. All 32 NFL teams are in action this weekend for the final time before bye weeks begin, but eight will be playing in games outside of the main Sunday afternoon window. The Chiefs, Jets, Giants, Seahawks, Packers, and Lions are in the primetime matchups, and the Jaguars and Falcons face off in London for the first international game of the year. Don’t worry, though. With 24 teams to choose from, there are plenty of great options to consider as you assemble your Week 4 NFL DFS squad.
Let’s take a look at a few players who stand out for Week 4, using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Kenny Pickett ($5,100) Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Houston Texans (42 total)
The Steelers got a win on Sunday night football to improve to 2-1 and tie for the division lead in the rough-and-tumble AFC North. Kenny Pickett threw for a pair of touchdowns and 235 yards on his way to a season-high 18.5 DraftKings points last week on the road in Vegas, and he’ll look to carry that success this week into another road game in Houston. Pickett has been consistent with between 220 and 235 yards in each of his three games this season, and he has at least one passing touchdown in each game.
Using FantasyLabs projections, Pickett has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and the highest projected Pts/Sal of all quarterbacks on Sunday’s slate. In THE BLITZ projections, Pickett leads the way in both Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at the position.
Pickett projects so well in the models partially because he’s so affordable. His salary is $5,100 and lower than 17 other starting QBs on Sunday’s slate. He won’t have to do much to outperform his bargain basement salary, which leaves you plenty to spend up in other spots to get the stars you want to build around. He’s over $3,000 cheaper than Josh Allen, who is the most expensive QB play on the slate, and that salary difference is massively significant if you’re looking to upgrade elsewhere.
The Steelers’ gameplan is typically fairly conservative and doesn’t call for Pickett to take deep down-field shots, but he did connect on long touchdown passes in each of the past two weeks. He has the playmakers to break deep plays in George Pickens and Calvin Austin, so in a favorable matchup like this one, he could pop for a big game and ultimately be a great value to build around.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Josh Downs ($3,500) Indianapolis Colts (-1) vs. Los Angeles Rams (46.5 total)
Josh Downs has emerged as one of the top options in the Colts’ passing game, and the rookie from North Carolina is a strong value to consider in Week 4, especially if Gardner Minshew II gets another start filling in for Anthony Richardson.
In Week 3 with Minshew under center, Downs led the team with 12 targets and finished with eight catches for 57 yards. In the first two games of the season, Downs had totaled just 12 targets, making seven catches for 67 yards. The slot receiver’s strong route-running skills make him one of Minshew’s favorite dump-off options, which resulted in his busy day on Sunday against the Ravens. If Minshew starts again, Downs should again get plenty of volume in Sunday’s matchup with the Rams.
Using THE BLITZ projections, Downs has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any WR on this slate, and he’s third in Projected Plus/Minus using FantasyLabs projections.
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the past two weeks even though he hasn’t found the end zone yet. The opportunity to score should be there, though, since he does have three red zone targets on the season.
Coming into the year, Downs was expected to slowly grow into a larger role alongside fellow rookie Richardson, but Mishew’s attention seems to have sped up that process. While his aDOT is typically low working out of the slot, his volume makes him worth a look at this low price.
Downs also gets a favorable matchup against the Rams, who gave up over 200 yards to the Bengals’ WRs last Monday night and will be on a short week preparing for the Colts. The 46.5 total for this game is the third-highest on Sunday’s slate, and getting Downs at this low of a salary is a good way to get some exposure to the contest.
Some of the other bargain receivers popping early in the projection to keep an eye on include Jonathan Mingo of the Panthers, Joshua Palmer of the Chargers, and Allen Robinson II and Calvin Austin III of the Steelers, who make an interesting bargain stack alongside Pickett.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Zack Moss ($6,000)
Indianapolis Colts (-1) vs. Los Angeles Rams (46.5 total)
Another emerging fantasy option from the Colts is Zack Moss, who has clearly been the lead back since returning from a fractured forearm suffered in training camp. After missing Week 1, Moss has exceeded salary-based expectations in back-to-back weeks.
FantasyLabs projections give him the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs on Week 4’s main slate, and THE BLITZ has him second in that category behind only Dameon Pierce.
Moss played 98% of his team’s snaps in his first game back and 76% in Week 3. Moss secured the job so definitively that the team actually cut Deon Jackson, who started in his place Week 1. Trey Sermon got more work in Week 3 after being promoted from the practice squad, but Moss is clearly the main man in the Indy backfield, at least until the Jonathan Taylor (ankle) saga is resolved.
In Week 2, Moss ran for a touchdown and 88 yards on 18 carries and caught all four of his targets for 19 more yards on his way to 20.7 DraftKings points. The Colts relied on him even more in Week 3 against a tough Ravens run defense. He still produced a very impressive 25.5 DKFP by taking his 30 carries for 122 yards and adding a receiving touchdown as part of his two catches for 23 yards.
Like Downs, Moss is a slightly better play if Minshew is under center for the Colts. Richardson was taking potential rushing scores from Moss, but the game plan built for Minshew focused on conservative, run-first, short-pass options making both Downs and Moss great value options in this game against the Rams, who have given up rushing touchdowns to RBs in each of the past two weeks.
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Dalton Kincaid ($3,200) Buffalo Bills (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (53.5 total)
The tight end spot is a little tricky this week since many top options (including one dating a certain popular singer) are not on the main slate. However, one option to consider is to grab a piece of the game that’s projected to be the highest scoring on the slate. The Bills and Dolphins over/under is all the way up to 53.5, which is six points higher than any other game on Sunday’s main slate. With all those points expected to be lighting up the scoreboard, Dalton Kincaid has the highest projected Plus/Minus of the tight ends on the slate using FantasyLabs projections and the second-highest in THE BLITZ.
Kincaid has had multiple targets in each of his three games this season and totaled 11 catches on 12 targets for 72 yards. He only had two targets last week since the Bills jumped out to a big early lead and relied on him and Dawson Knox more as blocking tight ends than receivers. Still, it was encouraging that he played over 50% of the team’s offensive snaps.
He continues to show strong chemistry with QB Josh Allen and be a threat near the goal line. If the Bills are going to keep up with the offensive onslaught of the Dolphins, they’ll need to stay aggressive and use all their options. Kincaid is a very affordable way to grab some ceiling in the high-scoring game without blowing all your budget.