The Week 12 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 24, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically the industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are three wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Michael Thomas: $9,300 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
- Julio Jones: $8,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
- Alshon Jeffery: $4,900 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Odds as of Friday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
Michael Thomas: New Orleans Saints (-9.5) vs. Carolina Panthers, 46.5 Over/Under
UPDATE (Nov. 23): Panthers CB Ross Cockrell (quad) is questionable after a limited practice on Friday.
Even though Thomas has played most of the season without quarterback Drew Brees, Thomas still leads the league with 113 targets, 94 receptions and 1,141 yards receiving. And that’s not a fluke. He entered the season with an all-time NFL-high 321 receptions through his first three years.
Regardless of who throws him the ball, Thomas is simply a reception magnet. In his 28 games since last year (including playoffs), Thomas has an outlandish 83.0% catch rate on 10.1 targets per game. And this season, he leads all receivers with an 83.3% catch rate on contested targets (per Player Profiler). That is unbelievable.
For the season, Thomas is the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver with 19.0 FanDuel points per game, and he has been a strong source of value with his +6.19 Plus/Minus value. He has hit salary-based expectations in every game this season.
Wide receiver production can be volatile, but thanks to his steady target volume, Thomas has been no worse than a high-end fantasy WR2 every week (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
Thomas has double-digit targets and 100 yards receiving in each of his four full games with Brees.
Michael Thomas in four full games this year with Drew Brees:
W1: 10-123-0, 13 targets
W8: 11-112-1, 11 targets
W9: 13-152-0, 14 targets
W10: 8-114-1, 10 targets
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 21, 2019
Thomas is in peak form.
On top of that, the Saints are at home, the Coors Field of fantasy football. With Brees, the Saints have a 64-46-2 record to the over at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, good for an A-graded 14.2% return on investment (including postseason, per Bet Labs).
Thomas gets so much volume regardless of circumstances that it really doesn’t matter where he plays, but throughout his career, he has been his best at the Superdome (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- Home (32 games): 15.7 FanDuel points, +3.89 Plus/Minus
- Away (28 games): 14.8 FanDuel points, +3.21 Plus/Minus
The matchup for Thomas is intriguing. At first glance, the matchup isn’t good. The Panthers are No. 7 in pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). And they are specifically No. 7 in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, thanks primarily to cornerback James Bradberry.
Last year, despite having an All-Pro campaign, Thomas underwhelmed against Bradberry and the Panthers in their two divisional matchups.
- Week 15: 8.4 FanDuel points, 7-49-0 receiving on nine targets
- Week 17: 5.4 FanDuel points, 5-29-0 receiving on seven targets
When lined up out wide, Thomas is likely to be shadowed by Bradberry, and that’s not an easy matchup. This year, the Panthers have held opponents to a bottom-five mark of 6.2 adjusted yards per game, and Bradberry is the lockdown corner that gives the Panthers their muscle.
For his career, he’s held receivers to a 58.1% catch rate, and this year he is yet to allow a touchdown in his coverage (per Pro Football Focus).
But I’m not too worried about Bradberry. Thomas has averaged 12.5 targets per game in his four full games this year with Brees (per RotoViz Game Splits App). With that kind of volume, Thomas could put up big numbers even in a tough matchup.
Plus, slot corner Ross Cockrell (quad) missed last week and is yet to return to practice. I doubt he will play this weekend, and in his place, backup Javien Elliott will be an exploitable substitute. A four-year bottom-of-the-roster undrafted veteran, Elliott is undersized (5-foot-11, 176 pounds), and he has allowed an 87.7% catch rate in his career.
Thomas has run 28.5% of his routes from the slot this year, and if Cockrell is out, the Saints might have him play even more in the slot so he can exploit the matchup with Elliott.
One way or another, Thomas seems likely to get his production: He leads all receivers with his median and ceiling projections in our Models. He’s in play for both cash games and guaranteed prize pools.
Thomas will be one of the most popular receivers on the slate, which makes sense: The Saints have a slate-high 27.75-point implied Vegas total. For tournaments, use our Lineup Builder to stack Thomas with Brees, but also be sure to differentiate your Thomas lineups with contrarian players or roster constructions.
Thomas has position-high marks with a +3.49 Projected Plus/Minus and 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he’s the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan, Koerner and Raybon Models.
Julio Jones: Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 51.5 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 23): RB Devonta Freeman (foot) and TE Austin Hooper (knee) are out. Bucs CB M.J. Stewart (knee) is out.
Julio is the No. 10 fantasy wide receiver with 14.1 FanDuel points per game. That’s not bad, but it’s not dominant. Is Julio starting to slip?
I doubt it. He’s No. 3 with 140.7 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game (per AirYards.com). That mark places him just below Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill and just above Davante Adams and Kenny Golladay.
Top 10 WRs in air yards+YAC per game.
1. Evans: 170.5
2. Tyreek: 143.3
3. Julio: 140.7 🚀 vs. Bucs
4. Davante: 140
5. Golladay: 135.9
6. Smoky: 135.2
7. Chark: 134.4
8: Hopkins: 133.4
9: J. Ross: 133 (4 games)
10: Gallup: 132 👀👀
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 21, 2019
In terms of his opportunity and raw skill, Julio is still very much among the elite.
Over his past four games, he’s averaged 103.8 yards, and last year, he led the league with 1,677 yards receiving.
In fact, he’s progressively led the league in receiving since 2014, his first truly dominant campaign.
- 2018-19: 2,559 yards
- 2017-19: 4,003 yards
- 2016-19: 5,412 yards
- 2015-19: 7,283 yards
- 2014-19: 8,876 yards
Seasons come and go, but Julio remains. He is Queen Elizabeth the First.
His dominance is now so routine that it’s almost dumbfoundingly boring. And without tight end Austin Hooper (knee), who has already been ruled out, Julio could see more targets than he usually does.
And the Falcons are No. 1 in the league with a 67.7% pass play rate. They throw a lot. If Julio gets even a couple of extra targets, he could lead the slate in fantasy scoring.
I can’t phrase this any differently: This matchup is delicious. The Bucs have allowed a league-high 39.2 FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers. Opposing teams have racked up 480.5 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game against them — the second-highest mark in the league.
The Bucs have the league’s most extreme funnel defense. They rank No. 1 against the run but No. 30 against the pass in DVOA. The Falcons should be motivated to pass.
And the Bucs are a total mess at cornerback. Last week they waived Vernon Hargreaves III and benched Jamel Dean and Ryan Smith. Perimeter corner Carlton Davis returned from injury, but they were without starter-turned-backup-turned-starter M.J. Stewart (knee), and he’s yet to practice this week. In Stewart’s absence, the Bucs have been forced to use rookie dime safety Mike Edwards at slot corner.
The Bucs are in full-blown “let’s try anything” mode at cornerback, and whatever they try never seems to work.
Wherever he lines up, Julio should dominate, but I expect him to run most of his routes against rookie cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, and that one-on-one matchup is utterly unfair. In his four games as a full-time defender, SMB has allowed four touchdowns.
Since 2014, the Bucs have had a bottom-10 pass defense DVOA almost every year, and in that time, Julio has subjugated the Bucs to a never-ending sequence of pain-inducing performances. Over the past half-decade, Julio has averaged 21.9 FanDuel points against the Bucs with a +7.04 Plus/Minus, 130 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 12.1 targets and 8.3 receptions per game.
Like a Jedi, Julio is relentless.
Julio vs. the Bucs over the past half decade:
2014, W3: 9-161-2
2014, W10: 8-119-0
2015, W8: 12-162-1
2015, W13: 8-93-0
2016, W1: 4-66-1
2016, W9: 8-111-1
2017, W12: 12-253-2
2017, W15: 3-54-0
2018, W6: 10-144-0
2018, W17: 9-138-1
2019, W12:🚀🚀🚀 pic.twitter.com/ctdAV0VM2A
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 21, 2019
Against the three corners the Bucs happen to be trotting out onto the field this week, Julio has legitimate 150-yard, two-touchdown upside.
The Falcons-Bucs game has a slate-high over/under, so Julio will be popular. If you stack Julio with quarterback Matt Ryan, be sure to differentiate your lineup elsewhere.
Julio is the No. 1 receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high eight Pro Trends.
Alshon Jeffery: Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks, 48 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 23): WR Nelson Agholor (knee) did not practice all week and looks to be on the doubtful side of his questionable status.
Jeffery (ankle) missed Week 11, but he has practiced this week (albeit on a limited basis) and is tentatively expected to play. Be sure to monitor his injury status over the weekend.
Full disclosure: I’m not that into Alshon. I tend to think of him as a low-upside player at this stage of his career. But I get why he’s popping in our Models.
First, he has limited competition for targets. DeSean Jackson (abdomen, IR) is out for the year, and Nelson Agholor (knee) missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday and is legitimately questionable for this weekend. If Agholor is out, Jeffery could have double-digit targets.
Also, he’s cheap. In his entire time with the Eagles, only once has Jeffery been $4,900 or cheaper, and that was in the playoffs when the pricing scale changes because of the smaller slates. In fact, in the entire FantasyLabs database (since 2014), that’s the only time Jeffery has been this cheap.
Furthermore, he’s likely to have a sub-5% ownership rate in guaranteed prize pools and makes for a good stacking partner with quarterback Carson Wentz. Team-specific production patterns can be analyzed with our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool, and over the past year, Jeffery and Wentz have had a high 0.56 correlation in production. If Jeffery has a big game, Wentz probably will too, and as a stacked unit they aren’t likely to have prohibitive exposure.
Is it worthwhile to roster Alshon in tournaments? In his 42 games with the Eagles, Jeffery has had 20-plus DraftKings points nine times. That hit rate of 21.4% is actually pretty decent for a guy most people have written off.
Is Alshon the same guy now that he was last year and the year before? His per-game averages are similar. (I’ve removed his two unrepresentative partial games.)
- 2017 (18 games): 13.7 DraftKings points, 7.6 targets, 3.8 receptions, 55.6 yards, 0.67 touchdowns
- 2018 (15 games): 14.5 DraftKings points, 7.3 targets, 5.1 receptions, 65.9 yards, 0.40 touchdowns
- 2019 (seven games): 13.4 DraftKings points, 7.7 targets, 4.9 receptions, 50.4 yards, 0.57 touchdowns
He’s probably lost a step. He has a sloth-like 6.5 yards per target. But he also has averaged eight targets across his six mostly DeSean-less games. With that usage and his low salary, Jeffery offers significant value.
Finally, his matchup is good. This year, Jeffery has lined up most out wide to the left, which pits him against right cornerback Tre Flowers, who is the weakest of the three starting corners for the Seahawks. With his 42.4 PFF coverage grade, he has a bottom-five mark among all qualified NFL corners. Flowers is exploitable, and Jeffery is still the No. 1 wide receiver in his offense.
With his low salary, Jeffery is the unanimous No. 1 receiver in our Pro Models for DraftKings, where he trails only Julio with his six Pro Trends.
Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks ($7,600 DK, $7,400 FD): Tyler Lockett (leg) suffered an in-game injury in Week 10, but he’s expected to play this week coming off the bye. He has just two fantasy WR1 performances this year but is one of the league’s most efficient receivers with 12.0 yards per target since last year. He has an elite 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and an advantageous matchup against slot corner Avonte Maddox, who has a 48.7 PFF coverage grade. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Lockett is in.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,300 DK, $8,000 FD): The future Hall-of-Famer is easily No. 1 with 170.5 air yards and yards after the catch and 1.3 end-zone targets per game. With those numbers, it’s little surprise that he’s the No. 2 fantasy receiver with 21.0 DraftKings points per game. The Falcons have toughened up since Raheem Morris was made secondary coach two weeks ago, but they are still No. 27 in pass defense DVOA. In his eight games against the Falcons under HC Dan Quinn, Evans has averaged 20.1 DraftKings points per game. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Falcons CB Kendall Sheffield (illness) is questionable after missing practice on Friday but is tentatively expected to play.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,200 DK, $7,800 FD): Godwin is No. 3 with 20.9 DraftKings points and No. 12 with 130.5 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game. Despite trailing Mike Evans in targets (97 vs. 90), the slot-centered Godwin leads the team with 63 receptions and is tied with Evans with seven touchdowns. Godwin has a great matchup against rookie cornerback Kendall Sheffield, who has allowed a 70.4% catch rate and been a starter for just five games. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Sheffield (illness) is questionable after missing practice on Friday but is tentatively expected to play.
Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns ($7,000 DK, $7,000 FD): Beckham has underwhelmed with just one touchdown this year, but he is averaging 8.9 targets per game, and the Dolphins just allowed a slate-best Millionaire Maker-winning performance to John Brown in Week 11. The Dolphins are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA and currently starting undrafted third-stringers Nik Needham, Ken Crawley and Jomal Wiltz at corner. OBJ has a strong 97% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Dolphins CB Ken Webster (ankle) is doubtful. SS Reshad Jones (chest, ankle) and FS Bobby McCain (shoulder) have been placed on IR.
Julian Edelman, New England Patriots ($6,900 DK, $7,500 FD): Edelman (shoulder) is dealing with a shoulder injury but fully expected to play, and he might see extra targets as wide receivers Mohamed Sanu (ankle) and Phillip Dorsett (head) are questionable. In his five games this year without Josh Gordon playing a majority of the snaps, Edelman has averaged 11.8 targets, 7.8 receptions, 76 receiving yards and an elite 139.6 air yards and yards after the catch per game. He has six Pro Trends on DraftKings and FanDuel. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Sanu and Dorsett are questionable but expected to be out.
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions ($6,600 DK, $7,800 FD): Quarterback Matthew Stafford (back) missed Weeks 10-11 and seems doubtful for Week 12, so Golladay will once again have to roll with backup Jeff Driskel. For the year, he ranks No. 1 with 1.3 end-zone targets and No. 5 with 135.9 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game. In his 13 career games with a touchdown, he’s averaged 21.9 DraftKings points. UPDATE (Nov. 23): QB Matthew Stafford (back) and C Frank Ragnow (concussion) are out. Redskins CB Josh Norman (hamstring) is questionable after a limited practice on Friday.
Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys ($6,600 DK, $7,700 FD): In his 21 games with the Cowboys, Cooper has averaged 19.3 DraftKings points, 84.9 yards and 0.67 touchdowns receiving per game (including playoffs). The Patriots’ defense leads the league with a 34% pass play success rate (per Sharp Football Stats), and I expect that Cooper will see shadow coverage from All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who has allowed just a 45.4% catch rate and 33.8 yards and 0.21 touchdowns receiving per game since last season. With the tough matchup, Cooper will have a reduced ownership rate. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Patriots CB Jason McCourty (groin) is questionable after a limited practice on Friday but is tentatively expected to play.
Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears ($6,500 DK, $7,500 FD): Robinson has a frustrating 16-169-0 receiving line over the past month, but he still has a respectable 8.6 targets per game this year, and the Giants have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 43.0 per game. A-Rob is likely to match up most with rookie corner DeAndre Baker, who is dead last among all starters with a 30.0 PFF coverage grade. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Mitchell Trubisky (hip) is expected to start.
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons ($6,500 DK, $6,700 FD): Ridley has averaged 22.1 DraftKings points in his 12 career games with a touchdown. Ridley will likely match up most with cornerback Carlton Davis, who has allowed four touchdowns over his past three games. Like teammate Julio Jones, Ridley will have a high ownership rate because of the excellent matchup, but he offers more roster flexibility and is a reasonable Julio pivot. UPDATE (Nov. 23): RB Devonta Freeman (foot) and TE Austin Hooper (knee) are out. Bucs CB M.J. Stewart (knee) is out.
D.J. Chark Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,400 DK, $7,000 FD): The sophomore breakout is the No. 6 fantasy wide receiver with 19.0 DraftKings points per game and a scorching +8.17 Plus/Minus. Last week he had an 8-104-2 receiving masterpiece on 15 targets in quarterback Nick Foles’ return from injury. For the season, he’s No. 7 with 134.4 air yards and yards after the catch per game.
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers ($6,400 DK, $6,400 FD): The second-year 22-year-old playmaker is starting to come on with 24-316-0 receiving on 36 targets over the past three weeks. With just one touchdown on 94 targets, Moore should see his scoring luck improve at some point. Moore had a combined 6-93-0 receiving line in two games against the Saints last year, but No. 1 corner Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) missed Week 11 and is yet to return to practice. I doubt he will play. In his absence, cornerback Eli Apple presents Moore with a much more palatable shadow matchup. Moore leads all wide receivers in our Models with his floor projections on DraftKings and FanDuel. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Lattimore is questionable after a limited practice on Friday.
Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins ($6,300 DK, $6,900 FD): Since the Week 7 bye, Landry has averaged 16.9 DraftKings points on 10 targets per game, and now he gets a #RevengeGame against the Dolphins, who are No. 29 in PFF coverage grade. Landry is a viable leverage play on teammate Odell Beckham Jr., who could have double the ownership rate. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Dolphins CB Ken Webster (ankle) is doubtful. SS Reshad Jones (chest, ankle) and FS Bobby McCain (shoulder) have been placed on IR.
D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks ($6,300 DK, $6,700 FD): The rookie playmaker leads the league with 1.3 end-zone targets per game, and he’s a close second to teammate Tyler Lockett in air yards and yards after the catch per game (103.5 vs. 99.5). He’s coming off the bye, so he should be rested and ready, and he has a good matchup. Cornerback Ronald Darby has a bottom-10 mark among starters with his 46.4 PFF coverage grade.
Jamison Crowder, New York Jets ($6,200 DK, $6,500 FD): In his seven games with quarterback Sam Darnold, the slot-bound Crowder has averaged 16.0 DraftKings points, 69.6 yards receiving and 0.43 touchdowns on 8.4 targets and 6.4 receptions. Cornerback Lamarcus Joyner (hamstring) missed Week 11 and hasn’t returned to practice yet. Backup slot man Nevin Lawson has just one start this year, and in 2014-18, he had sub-60.0 PFF coverage grades in four of five seasons. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Joyner is questionable after a limited practice on Friday.
Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions ($6,100 DK, $7,200 FD): Even without quarterback Matthew Stafford (back), Jones’ boom/bust nature preserves his status as a tournament option. Jones has four fantasy WR1 performances this year. In six games since the bye, Jones has a 33-378-5 receiving line. He has top-five Leverage Scores on DraftKings and FanDuel thanks to his high ceiling and low ownership projections. UPDATE (Nov. 23): QB Matthew Stafford (back) and C Frank Ragnow (concussion) are out. Redskins CB Josh Norman (hamstring) is questionable after a limited practice on Friday.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins ($6,000 DK, $5,800 FD): In Weeks 1-6, McLaurin looked like a legitimate candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year, averaging 181.6 yards and one touchdown on 7.6 targets and 4.6 receptions per game. But in the four games since then, McLaurin is 12-158-0 receiving on just 18 targets. He has a tough shadow matchup against cornerback Darius Slay, who has allowed a catch rate of just 57.7% for his career, but teams have put up a league-high 497.3 air yards and yards after the catch per game against the Lions. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Lions CB Rashaan Melvin (ribs) is questionable after a limited practice on Friday.
Tyrell Williams, Oakland Raiders ($5,900 DK, $6,400 FD): Williams has just 4.8 targets per game since returning from injury four weeks ago, but he still leads the team with 93.8 air yards and yards after the catch per game. In his five starts with a touchdown this year, Williams has averaged 16.7 DraftKings points. The Jets have an extreme funnel defense that ranks No. 2 against the run but No. 21 against the pass in DVOA and are starting third-string cornerbacks Arthur Maulet and Blessuan Austin on the perimeter because Trumaine Johnson (ankle, IR) is out for the year, Darryl Roberts (calf) has missed the past two weeks and Nate Hairston has been benched. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Roberts is officially doubtful and expected to be out.
Golden Tate, New York Giants ($5,700 DK, $6,400 FD): The sample is small, but Tate leads the Giants with 50 targets, 33 receptions and 417 yards receiving since returning in Week 5. Wide receiver Sterling Shepard (concussion) and tight ends Evan Engram (foot) and Rhett Ellison (concussion) are all uncertain to play, so Tate should continue to be featured. For his career, slot corner Brian Poole has allowed a 72.2% catch rate. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Shepard is in, but Engram and Ellison are out.
Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers ($5,400 DK, $5,700 FD): The third-year Percy Harvin clone has averaged 16.9 DraftKings points in his four games this year with a touchdown. Without No. 1 corner Marshon Lattimore (hamstring), the Saints have moved slot corner P.J. Williams to the perimeter, where he’s likely to face Samuel. Williams has allowed a 66.7% catch rate for his career. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Lattimore is questionable after a limited practice on Friday.
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins ($5,200 DK, $6,000 FD): Parker has 8.8 targets per game since quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick returned to the starting lineup in Week 7, and over the past two weeks without wide receiver Preston Williams (knee, IR), he’s averaged 10 targets, six receptions and 102 yards per game. As unlikely as this sounds, Parker is pacing for a respectable 966.4 yards this year. The Dolphins will likely have a pass-heavy game script as road dogs, and Parker’s matchup with rookie corner Greedy Williams isn’t imposing. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Browns CB Eric Murray (knee) is out.
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,100 DK, $5,600 FD): Johnson (concussion) left Thursday Night Football in Week 11 with what looked like a severe head injury, but he is practicing in full and reportedly on track to play. Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion, knee) is unlikely to suit up, so Johnson might function as the No. 1 pass-catching option. The Bengals are No. 30 in PFF coverage grade and without No. 1 corner Dre Kirkpatrick (knee, IR). UPDATE (Nov. 23): RB James Conner (shoulder) and JuJu are out, but Johnson will be active.
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,000 DK, $5,600 FD): I’m an anti-Boyd truther, but even I can see that this is an underappreciated spot. The Bengals are likely to be without wide receivers A.J. Green (ankle), John Ross (clavicle, IR) and Auden Tate (neck), so Boyd will continue to operate as the No. 1 pass-catching option in the offense. Boyd is tied for No. 7 in the league with 9.4 targets per game. The Steelers are No. 5 in pass defense DVOA, so the matchup is tough, but Boyd’s volume is elite for a guy this cheap and unpopular. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Tate and WR Stanley Morgan (illness) are questionable.
Robby Anderson, New York Jets ($4,800 DK, $5,400 FD): Anderson’s one reception last week happened to be a touchdown, but other than that, there was nothing redemptive in his Week 11 performance. Over the past month, he has just 23.3 yards on two receptions per game. The Raiders are a below-average No. 23 in PFF coverage grade, and Anderson has scored 20-plus DraftKings points in seven of his 56 games (12.5%). UPDATE (Nov. 23): Raiders CB Lamarcus Joyner (hamstring) is questionable after a limited practice on Friday.
Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,600 DK, $5,300 FD): Westbrook (illness) missed practice on Thursday, and even though he has all the talent in the world, it increasingly seems like “Fetch” is never going to happen. Even so, Westbrook averaged 7.7 targets per game in Weeks 1-7 before injuries sidetracked his season. In his 35 career games, Westbrook has had 20-plus DraftKings points three times. That 8.6% hit rate is pretty good for a guy who will have almost no ownership. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Westbrook practiced on Friday and will play.
Hunter Renfrow, Oakland Raiders ($4,500 DK, $5,900 FD): Since teammate Tyrell Williams returned from injury in Week 8, it’s Renfrow who actually leads the receivers with 14.0 DraftKings points and 5.5 targets per game. Cornerback Brian Poole has been competent in the slot this year, but he has still allowed a 72.3% catch rate for his career. UPDATE (Nov. 23): Jets CB Darryl Roberts (calf) is officially doubtful and expected to be out.
Danny Amendola, Detroit Lions ($4,400 DK, $5,700 FD): Only a true contrarian would roster Amendola in Lions stacks instead of Golladay and Jones — but we’re contrarians to the core. Amendola has two 20-point performances in nine DraftKings slates this year, and since 2017, he’s had seven such games in 42 opportunities. Amendola has a great matchup against slot cornerback Fabian Moreau, who has an 88% catch rate this year and last week just allowed a 5-76-1 receiving game to Jamison Crowder. UPDATE (Nov. 23): QB Matthew Stafford (back) and C Frank Ragnow (concussion) are out. Redskins CB Josh Norman (hamstring) is questionable after a limited practice on Friday.
Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons ($3,900 DK, $5,300 FD): Since the Falcons traded wide receiver Mohamed Sanu in Week 8, the sixth-round second-year LSU project has played as the team’s primary slot man, averaging six targets per game. Cornerback M.J. Stewart (knee) missed Week 11 and looks doubtful for Week 12, so Gage will get to run the majority of his routes against rookie dime safety Mike Edwards, whom the Bucs are using as a slot substitute. With his 88.9% catch rate allowed, Edwards might give up enough production on even just six targets to make Gage a viable punt play. UPDATE (Nov. 23): RB Devonta Freeman (foot) and TE Austin Hooper (knee) are out. Bucs CB M.J. Stewart (knee) is out.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Pictured above: Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey
Photo credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports.