NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge for Week 4

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.

The Data

This is our last week before we get the matchup-adjusted data, but with a three-week sample size, the data is already at least somewhat predictive. While there are still anomalies from teams with a lucky (or unlucky) early schedule, the Week 4 table gives us a fairly solid picture of a team’s actual abilities.

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

Buffalo Bills OL (#1 in Adjusted Line Yards) vs. New England Patriots DL

While Josh Allen ($7,700) rightfully draws most of the attention, the Bills’ run game has been very solid this season. They rank first in adjusted line yards on offense, with James Cook ($7,400) recording more than 20 carries and 130 yards while scoring a touchdown in each of the last two games.

The Bills seem fairly comfortable giving Cook a true lead-back role, though they’re one of the more game-script-dependent teams. In a somewhat close Week 1 win, Cook saw just 13 carries, as the Bills trusted Josh Allen to play hero ball.

This week, they’re favored by roughly a touchdown against the Patriots, who rank 26th in adjusted line yards defensively. That should be an ideal setup for Cook over Allen. Of course, given Allen’s rushing production, it makes sense to look at him as well – though I’d consider playing him only with a Patriots bring-back, as he needs to be pushed for a big game. Conversely, pairing Cook with the Bills’ defense, which has the 3rd-best matchup by adjusted sack rate, also makes sense as a correlated pairing.

Arizona Cardinals OL (#1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. New York Giants DL

The Giants came into the season with a solid defensive line on paper, but the results so far have been disappointing. They’ve managed just one sack all year despite starting 2-1, with their most recent game coming against the Titans. The situation is even more dire now, as they lost star edge rusher Brian Burns for the season last week.

Conversely, either the Cardinals offensive line or Jacoby Brissett ($5,000) has been much better than expected at avoiding sacks – or perhaps both have. Arizona has taken just five sacks through three games, ranking sixth in adjusted sack rate despite Anderson’s No. 24 preseason ranking.

Combined with Burns’ injury, that sack avoidance makes this an elite spot for Brissett and the Cardinals’ passing game. The only possible limitation is the game script. The Giants played extremely slowly last week with Jameis Winston ($4,500) under center, trying to run the ball and hide Winston as much as possible. If they do so again, Brissett’s opportunity will be limited, especially if the Cardinals take a lead.

Still, at just $5,000, Brissett doesn’t need another game with 50+ pass attempts to be a good play. He’s an elite cash-game option with some fringe tournament upside under the right circumstances.

Strong Defensive Line Matchups

Minnesota Vikings DL (#1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Miami Dolphins OL

The Dolphins are an unsurprisingly bad team that also received some bad news, as they lost star running back De’Von Achane for the season last week. While his absence doesn’t directly affect the offensive line, losing their lone bright spot on offense improves the outlook for opposing defenses.

This week, that opposing defense is Minnesota ($4,000), which enters as our highest-projected defense. Minnesota also carries the maximum salary given to D/STs, which makes sense because it leads the league in both sacks and adjusted sack rate.

Everything points Minnesota’s way this week, as it is a double-digit home favorite against the league’s worst offense. Finding the salary to get there is a bit difficult, but that should keep its ownership reasonably low, making Minnesota a good tournament option.

Chicago Bears DL (#4 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. New York Jets OL

While the Bears defense wasn’t expected to be good, it ranks in the top 10 in adjusted sack rate this season and has held the Vikings and Eagles to a combined 16 points over the past two games. However, weather was a factor in the former matchup.

This week, the Bears get the Jets, who rank 23rd in adjusted sack rate offensively and have somehow avoided any interceptions despite all the pressure on Geno Smith ($5,200). While we don’t have updated numbers yet, he was at 0.69 “deserved interceptions” through two weeks, according to Nick Giffen’s Luck Rankings Dashboad. That number is surely higher now after he avoided any interceptions last week.

Chicago ($3,000) has been one of the best takeaway teams over the past two seasons and is also generating pressure, giving it a solid chance to put up a big score this week. Its $3,000 price tag doesn’t exactly make it a budget option, but it’s reasonably priced, all things considered, making Chicago a strong play in all contest types.

Picture: James Cook, Bills offensive line
Photo Credit: Imagn