NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Steelers vs. Browns on Thursday Night Football (October 1st)

The NFL starts the new month by kicking off Week 4 of the season with an AFC North rivalry game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns. Both teams are 2-1 and are tied for first and last place in their division, since all four teams start the week with a 2-1 record. The Browns are 2.5-point favorites, while the over/under is a below-average total of 38.5 points.

The Steelers defeated the Bengals in a wild, 30-27 game at home last week, while the Browns took care of the visiting Panthers, 21-18, in a frenetic finish capped by a late touchdown pass. The Browns defeated the Buccaneers the week before, 23-19, so they will be looking for their third straight victory and second straight win at Huntington Bank Field.

Last season, these two rivals split their two-game series. The Steelers won in Pittsburgh in Week 6, 23-9, and the Browns won in Cleveland in Week 17, 13-6. For each of the last four seasons, the teams have split their regular-season series, with the home team winning each of those eight contests. Will that trend continue on Thursday Night Football? Let’s take a closer look at this Thursday night matchup from a DFS showdown perspective.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

The biggest fantasy stud on this slate is Steelers RB Jaylen Warren, who has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections, along with the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players as well.

For the second straight week, Warren will be in firm control of the work in the Steelers backfield with Rico Dowdle (toe) ruled out for a second straight week. Warren produced 23.6 DraftKings points against the Bengals in Week 3 without Dowdle, an especially impressive total since he did that without finding the end zone.

He finished the day with 17 carries for 127 rushing yards and three catches on four targets for 49 receiving yards. He played 90% of the team’s snaps and took all but two of the RB carries. Warren should be lined up to be the bell cow again on Thursday night, but the Browns have been a tough matchup for RBs, allowing zero running back touchdowns this season and the seventh-fewest DraftKings points to the position.

Since Warren is set for such a huge workload, though, he has proven he can have success even without finding the end zone, which is why he is the top option to consider for either a FLEX or in your Captain’s Pick spot if you have the salary available.

Aaron Rodgers is the only player with a higher salary than Warren’s on Thursday night and has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the FantasyLabs Consensus Projections. Sean Koerner actually gives him the highest ceiling projection on the board since he does have the potential to go off for a big game like he showed last week.

Against the Bengals, Rodgers had his best game of the season by a wide margin. He racked up 292 passing yards and three passing touchdowns while spreading the ball around to nine different pass-catchers. He ended up with 23.7 DraftKings points, showing he still has the ability to take apart the defense and find holes to attack.

Before that big game last week, Rodgers had struggled to just 12.5 DraftKings points in Week 1 in a win over the Falcons, and he looked even less effective with just 6.0 DraftKings points against the Patriots. The Browns will look to force him into another low-output game like that on Thursday night, and they have been solid against QBs so far this season, allowing an average of 239.3 passing yards per game and just one passing touchdown in each of their two wins the last two weeks.

Warren is the only player with a positive Optimal vs. Projected Ownership % in our NFL SimLabs among the top options on Thursday, and he’s the Captain in a massive 45% of optimal lineups.

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On the home-team side of the matchup, the Browns offense has been better the last two weeks, with Deshaun Watson turning things around after a rough showing in Week 1 against the Jaguars. The offense hasn’t been exactly high-scoring, with just over 20 points in each of their wins, but it has been effective enough to rely on the defense and emerge with a victory.

Watson has the highest salary and the highest projections of the Browns on this Showdown slate. He had 15 DraftKings points in the opener and followed that with 19.7 DraftKings points against the Bucs and 20.3 DraftKings points against the Panthers. He threw two touchdowns and no interceptions in each of those wins, and last week against Carolina, he added 45 rushing yards on 11 carries.

Watson has over 20 rushing yards in each of his three starts this season, and his ability to chip in production in that category boosts his ceiling in every matchup, including this Thursday’s contest against the Steelers. He only completed 16 of his 30 pass attempts, but his rushing production and central role in the offense make him an option worth considering against the Steelers.

Watson is in the most Optimal lineups in a FLEX spot in our SimLabs and trails only Warren for most Optimal lineups in the Captain’s Pick spot. He also has the highest Optimal vs. Projected Ownership % in the FLEX spot in this matchup.

The other main piece to consider from the Browns’ offense is running back Quinshon Judkins, who has had multiple catches and at least 12 carries in every game for the Browns this year. He hasn’t found the end zone or been able to crack double-digit DraftKings points yet, but he is getting almost all the carries, especially with Dylan Sampson (ankle) on IR.

Judkins will need to find the end zone against the Steelers to really deliver a good fantasy total, and the Steelers have allowed two touchdowns to the position in their three games this season and an average of 101 rushing yards to running backs per game.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks