NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge for Week 3

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.

The Data

Heading into Week 3 we now have a two-week sample size of team’s 2025 performance. That’s still not great, but it’s still double what we had heading into last week. We’re still going to mainly rely on the rankings mentioned above, but we’ll start to put a bit more stock into their actual performance than we have previously.

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

Denver Broncos OL (#2 In Anderson’s Rankings) vs. Los Angeles Chargers DL (#19 in PFF’s Rankings)

This is the third straight matchup for the Broncos offensive line against middle-of-the-pack defensive units, after they faced the Titans (14th) and Colts (17th) in the first two weeks. They’ve lived up to Anderson’s preseason evaluation as a top-tier unit, having allowed the lowest adjusted sack rate in the league while producing a top 10 adjusted line yards.

It’s convenient for DFS purposes that the relative strength of the offensive line works that way, as the Broncos’ three-headed backfield makes it hard for any running backs to emerge as strong plays. Bo Nix ($5,800), on the other hand, is still underpriced for what looks to be a great matchup.

Beyond the solid pass protection, the matchup with the fast-paced Chargers could boost the overall scoring environment here. We just saw the less-heralded QB in a similar setup take down a milly maker, so I want some Nix/Denver passing exposure in tournaments this week.

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Chicago Bears OL (#4 In Anderson’s Rankings) vs. Dallas Cowboys DL (#12 in PFF’s Rankings)

Conversely, the Bears are coming off a game in which they faced the Lions’ #6-ranked defensive line, which got to Caleb Williams ($5,600) for four sacks and an interception. Some of that was due to the game script and some of that is on Williams being slow to process — but both of those factors will get better with a less potent pass rush on the other side.

Keep in mind, the Cowboys’ #12 ranking was assigned by PFF before they traded away top pass rusher Micah Parsons. So far, Dallas has allowed more than 30 points per game and just allowed Russell Wilson to put up 34 DraftKings points.

While there’s no guarantee Williams and the Bears passing attack can replicate that, he has the talent around him to put up a big fantasy day in this matchup. Running back D’Andre Swift ($5,600) is also in play, but Dallas seems to be better against the run than the pass so my main interest is the passing offense.

Strong Defensive Line Matchups

Houston Texans DL (#4 In PFF Rankings) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars OL (#27 in Anderson’s Rankings)

Houston is not a good team right now, but it’s not the fault of their defense. Their front was graded as a top-five unit by PFF heading into the season, and Anderson ranked their overall defense as the best in the league. Through two games, they’ve notched seven sacks while allowing just 17 points per game, despite facing solid offenses in the Rams and Bucs.

This week, they get a Jaguars team with a bad offensive line that has put up points but also made big mistakes. Jacksonville is averaging a solid 26.5 points per game, but has allowed four sacks and given away six turnovers despite facing two bottom-five defenses.

Houston ($2,700) is also drastically underpriced, since they’re underdogs in this matchup. DraftKings’ pricing is typically based more on the spread than anything else.

Philadelphia Eagles DL (#2 In PFF Rankings) vs. Los Angeles Rams OL (#18 in Anderson’s Rankings)

The Eagles’ defensive numbers are thrown off by the fact that they played Week 1 without their top interior defensive lineman, who got himself ejected before playing a single snap. In Week 2, they held the Chiefs to just 17 points and picked up two sacks and an interception against Patrick Mahomes and a solid offensive line.

This week, they have an even better matchup against a weaker Rams offensive line and a less mobile, more mistake-prone QB in Matthew Stafford ($5,700).

Philadelphia ($3,100) is a bit too expensive for tighter builds, but they’re an interesting large-field GPP option in a game that could turn ugly in a hurry if they’re able to get out to an early lead.

Picture: Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter

Photo Credit: Imagn

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.