Ohio sports betting is live, and there’s no better place to make a Bills vs. Bengals same game parlay than at FanDuel Sportsbook. We have picks, including player props, and a special Ohio sportsbook offer to get you started ahead of Monday Night Football.
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Bills vs. Bengals Same Game Parlay Preview
Monday Night Football features the two hottest teams in the AFC. The Bengals, who have won seven-straight games, are hosting the Bills, who have won six straight. Both teams are still in play for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, but a lot would have to break the Bengals way to get it. With a win tonight, the Bills remain the No. 1 seed with one game remaining.
This is a game where the key to winning will likely come down to whichever defense comes to play. Both teams rank in the top seven in scoring offense, total offense, and passing offense and have been held below 20 points five times combined through the season.
The Bills are 1.5-point road favorites, as they have been favored in every game this season. Meanwhile, the Bengals have covered the spread in 80% of their games and are 1-1 as an underdog. This total currently sits at 49.5 points as the under has hit in 19 of their combined 30 games (63%). Grab your popcorn, place this parlay, and watch this AFC showdown.
Picking a parlay for tonight’s game is super easy with the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator, which leads to plus-expected value wagers for this primetime showdown.
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Bengals vs. Bills Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay, the Parlay IQ tool will calculate the expected win rate as you add more wagers to your bet slip. It then compares the projected odds to the actual odds on FanDuel, identifying how much value you’re getting on each wager.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Joe Burrow Under 12.5 Rushing Yards
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is coming off a season-high 52 pass attempts as he completed 40 passes for 375 yards and three touchdowns. The Bengals held on to win 22-18 over the Patriots for their seventh-straight victory. During that stretch, they are scoring 29.3 points per game despite playing a few really tough defenses.
Getting Ja’Marr Chase back the past four weeks has made this offense look like last year again when they went on a run to the Super Bowl. Burrow has so many offensive weapons at his disposal that running the ball seems like an afterthought. Over the last three weeks, Burrow has 13 rushing attempts for 23 total yards equaling 7.7 rushing yards per game.
In our simulations, Burrow rushed for 12 or fewer rushing yards in a game-high 69% of the time. This under has a 35% EV and gets this parlay on the right track. Burrow has hit this under in 9 of 15 (60%) games this season. The Bills’ defense ranks seventh against the pass and third against the run, so expect Burrow to do most of his damage through the air once again.
Joe Mixon Over 50.5 Rushing Yards
The Bills’ defense ranks third in rush DVOA per FootballOutsiders, but this rushing yards prop looks extremely low for Bengals running back Joe Mixon. Over the last three games since returning from injury, Mixon has averaged 60.7 rushing yards per game. During that time, he has only rushed 41 times but is averaging 4.4 yards per carry.
Mixon continues to be heavily involved in the passing game as well, coming off his third seven-reception game this season. He ranks fourth on the Bengals in target share behind the electric wide receiving trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Any way the Bengals can get the ball in Mixon’s hands in space, they will do it.
Backup running back Samaje Perine has been more involved lately, but this is still Mixon’s backfield. Mixon’s 16 rushing attempts last game was the most he has had since early November. He is starting to get healthy again, and running the ball late in the season is extremely important for every offense. Mixon has hit this over in 8 of 13 (62%) games this season while averaging 60.5 rushing yards per game. This line is simply too low for Mixon’s expected outcome tonight.
Dawson Knox Under 37.5 Receiving Yards
Like the Bengals, the Bills’ offense is on a roll right now, averaging 28.3 points per game during their six-game win streak. Since the temperature started to decrease, quarterback Josh Allen has had consistently more rushing attempts. His passing numbers have dropped considerably, as Allen is averaging 216 passing yards per game in his last six games.
That drop in passing production hurts Dawson Knox, who only has an 11.6% target share behind the top two weapons, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Knox does have a team-high 73% catch rate but has only 4.5 targets and 3.3 receptions per game. He has scored in three-straight games, but against this Bengals defense, Knox will struggle to reach this over.
Not only has the Bengals offense been great, but their defense has really stepped up. During their seven-game win streak, the Bengals are allowing only 17.3 points per game. Knox has been incredible recently, but this is the best player prop to target on the Bills’ side of the ball with our Parlay IQ tool. This prop was third with a 63% chance of hitting the under in our simulations and has a 16% EV. Take the under on Knox’s receiving yards and lock in this three-player parlay tonight.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Based on their simulations, Parlay IQ places the true odds on this parlay at +244, while FanDuel is offering +584. That is exceptional value on this parlay!
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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