NFL Week 4 features a Sunday Night Football showdown between the Detroit Lions and the Carolina Panthers. The Lions are listed as 3.5-point favorites, while the total sits at 50.5 points.
The Lions have been one of the most entertaining teams in football to start the year. They have zero issues scoring points, but their defense gives them basically all back. They’re dead last in points per game allowed this season, and their secondary is dealing with multiple key absences. Add both together, and it’s an elite formula for a bunch of shootouts.
The Panthers have been a diet version of Detroit this season. Their offense isn’t quite as good, but they’ve impressed through three weeks. They’re in the top seven in both yards and points per game, with their passing attack taking a massive step forward. Their defense also isn’t quite as bad as Detroit’s, but they’re in the bottom seven in terms of points and yards allowed. That stems primarily from their Week 1 matchup vs. the Bears, where they allowed 59 points and more than 500 yards of total offense. The Lions have the same type of offensive firepower as Chicago, so they could be poised for a big day.
With plenty of potential for offense, let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by award-winning expert ranker Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
There are a handful of strong fantasy targets on this slate, but Jahmyr Gibbs stands out in a tier of his own. Gibbs has spent the past few seasons in a timeshare with David Montgomery, but he has been officially unleashed this season. He’s racked up an NFL-high 83 touches through the first three weeks, making a huge impact as a runner and as a pass catcher. He’s handled 86% of Detroit’s rushing attempts with a 20% target share, giving him the best usage in the entire NFL.
Only time will tell whether that heavy workload will eventually start to impact Gibbs’ efficiency. But fantasy players should enjoy it for the time being. Gibbs has scored six touchdowns to start the year, and he’s also averaged more than 150 scrimmage yards per game.
Gibbs has posted a positive Plus/Minus in all three contests to start the year. His floor performance was still 23.3 DraftKings points vs. the Bills, while he got to 37.6 and 41.4 against the Saints and Jets, respectively. The Panthers are much closer in talent to the latter pair, and Gibbs owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.2.
One way or another, expect him to do some damage in this contest. He owns the top raw projection in our NFL Models, and he also ranks first in projected Plus/Minus. It’s hard to imagine building too many lineups without him.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is the Lions’ top receiver, and he’s also off to an impressive start. He torched the Saints and Bills, scoring at least 28.7 DraftKings points in both contests, before stumbling back to reality a bit vs. the Jets.
St. Brown’s underlying usage has been excellent. He owns a 33% target share, slightly up from last year. It was even higher in the first two weeks of the season before slipping to “just” 26% vs. the Jets. Even so, he still saw eight targets in that contest, and he scored his fifth touchdown of the year.
Unfortunately, the matchup isn’t quite as good for St. Brown as it is for Gibbs. The Panthers have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing receivers so far this season, giving him an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.0.
Still, St. Brown has the potential to go off vs. anyone. He has the second-highest median projection on the slate, while his ceiling projection trails only Gibbs among non-QBs.
Jared Goff benefits from Detroit’s offensive talent. Whenever he drops back to throw, he’s looking at a bunch of different Pro Bowl-caliber players.
Goff is typically a low-end QB1 in fantasy, and he’s shown that to start the year. He’s scored 16.44 and 19.36 DraftKings points in two contests, and he erupted for 32.78 in the other. He provides minimal upside with his legs, so almost all his damage will have to come from his right arm.
The one caveat with Goff in this matchup is that he has historically been worse on the road than at home. He’s averaged 19.35 DraftKings points per game in his home starts, but that figure slips to 16.95 on the road. His average falls even further specifically as a road underdog, dipping to just 15.61 DraftKings points per game (per the Trends tool).
Of course, a road game in Carolina in October isn’t exactly daunting. Some rain is expected, but the winds and temperature are very reasonable. Ultimately, Goff ranks second at the position in projected Plus/Minus.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
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