NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Commanders vs. 49ers on Monday Night Football (October 19th)

NFL Week 6 wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Washington Commanders and the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are listed as 7.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 52.0 points.

The 49ers have been one of the league’s best teams through five weeks. They’re a perfect 5-0, while their offense has been one of the best in football. They rank second in EPA per play and third in points per game, despite dealing with a host of injuries.

On the other side, the Commanders enter this game at 1-3-1. They’re coming off a humiliating tie last week vs. the Giants, but they’ve played better than their record suggests. They beat the Seahawks and could’ve beaten the Eagles in Week 1, and their offense has had no issues moving the ball with their starting QB in the lineup.

Let’s dive into all the DFS options for this contest.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by award-winning expert ranker Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Christian McCaffrey is the most expensive player in this matchup, and he’s still one of the premier running backs in fantasy. He’s currently ninth at the position in PPR points per game.

So far this season, the 49ers have handled McCaffrey with care. He’s carried a heavy burden throughout his career, and at 30 years old, the 49ers aren’t giving him the same level of volume that they have in the past. His usage is way down compared to last season: 69% snap share, 51% carry share, 18% target share vs. 82%, 70%, and 23%, respectively.

The good news is that McCaffrey has seen a boost to his efficiency with his touches more carefully managed. He’s back up to 4.7 yards per attempt this season after sitting at 3.9 last year.

Still, if McCaffrey isn’t going to get 20+ opportunities per game, he’s tough to justify at a massive price tag. He simply hasn’t possessed the same ceiling that we’ve seen in previous years, topping out at just 22.6 DraftKings points through the first five weeks.

Perhaps a matchup vs. the Commanders will get him going. They’ve allowed the fourth-largest boost to running backs in terms of targets per game, and catching passes has always been McCaffrey’s strong suit. He hasn’t been utilized as a pass-catcher nearly as much this year, but that remains a big weapon in his arsenal.

The 49ers’ injury situation could also force McCaffrey into a larger role. They’re already down four receivers from the start of the year (Deebo Samuel, Ricky Pearsall, Demarcus Robinson, and De’Zhaun Stribling), and both Mike Evans and Christian Kirk are questionable on Monday. It could leave the team extremely thin vs. the Commanders, which would force McCaffrey into a bigger role by default.

Add it all up, and this could be a breakout spot for the former fantasy MVP. He has the highest optimal Captain rate in SimLabs (25.5%), but he’s projected for just 18.7% ownership in that spot.

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Brock Purdy has put himself in the NFL MVP race through five weeks. Josh Allen is the clear favorite, but Purdy is second in terms of odds. He’s played at a really high level, leading the league in touchdown rate (9.2%), Success Rate, and QBR. For fantasy purposes, only Allen has averaged more fantasy points per game.

Purdy has cooled off a bit over his past two outings, though he’s still managed a positive Plus/Minus in each. Those games also came against the Seahawks and Broncos, who have two of the best defenses in football. The Commanders are not in the same weight class. They’re 23rd in the league in EPA per pass defensively, and they’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.5 for Purdy, which is the best mark on the slate.

Purdy ranks first in our NFL Models in both median and ceiling projection, and he’s also first in projected Plus/Minus. That does come with the top projected ownership, but it’s hard to argue against him as the strongest play on the slate.

Jayden Daniels returned to the lineup for Washington last week, and he put together an awesome fantasy showing. He wasn’t particularly good as a passer – 199 yards, zero touchdowns – but he more than made up for it with his work on the ground. He tallied 103 rushing yards and two scores, resulting in 35.26 DraftKings points.

Such is the power of QB rushing for fantasy football. You can rack up points quicker with your legs than your arm, and no one has more upside in that department than Daniels at the moment. Before last week’s contest, he had seven carries and 69 rushing yards in just one half vs. the Cowboys in Week 2.

Daniels definitely has some downside (especially from an injury perspective), but don’t forget just how good he was as a rookie. If he’s healthy, he’s capable of putting up some of the biggest scores at the position. Daniels is also the rare QB who has historically fared well as an underdog: he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.66 in seven career games as an underdog of more than four points (per the Trends tool).

Daniels trails only Purdy in terms of ceiling projection, and I would argue that his ceiling is potentially higher. He also ranks second on the slate in projected Plus/Minus.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks