Sunday Night Football gives us a matchup between two AFC contenders at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Bengals are listed as 2.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 50.5 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
The stud section is jam-packed for tonight’s showdown slate, with Josh Allen leading the way. Allen continued his great start to the year last week, throwing for two touchdowns and running for another en route to 33.06 DraftKings points.
He’s topped 30 DraftKings points in three of five games and now gets a solid matchup against Cincinnati.
Lou Anarumo’s defense stifled Allen in last year’s playoffs, as he threw for 264 yards but didn’t find the end zone through the air. Cincinnati has been vulnerable through the air, allowing the sixth-most yards per pass attempt this year.
Allen is one of the top options on the slate, but there are numerous appealing studs, including his top pass catcher, Stefon Diggs.
Diggs had a middling game for his standards last week, catching nine of 12 targets for 70 yards. He has potentially the most valuable role in all of fantasy, with a 33% target share, 43% air-yards share, and 31% red-zone share. He projects the worst of the top four studs, but I have a lot of interest.
Shifting over to the Cincinnati side, Ja’Marr Chase is coming off a great performance against San Francisco, catching 10 of 12 targets for 100 yards and a touchdown.
This Bills defense has been susceptible to opposing receivers as of late. They did add Rasul Douglas, but we’ll see how much of an impact he has. I think ownership is going to dictate my decision in the stud section. The lowest owned of the previous three and Joe Burrow will likely be my favorite captain options. I’d prefer to captain one of the receivers.
Buffalo has allowed the second-fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks, but Joe Burrow is another animal. He looks fully healthy and has thrown eight touchdowns over the past three weeks.
He had a middling game against a solid Seattle defense, but he has two 27-point DraftKings points in the past three games. Burrow looked very mobile last week too, which is a huge development, as he scrambled for 43 yards.
You can’t go wrong with any of these four, as this game should be a shootout with all of the studs set up for success. I’m going to let ownership dictate my decisions, but Chase stands out as my favorite of the bunch.
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
Joe Mixon is questionable with a chest injury, but he should be good to go for Sunday Night. Mixon has been inefficient, but the quality of his workload is undeniable. He saw 16 carries last week and three targets, totaling 20 DraftKings points.
He’s a safe bet for 15ish carries with upwards of the low 20s in a positive game script. I’m expecting Cincinnati to lean more pass-heavy tonight. Buffalo has been stout against opposing backs, but they’re susceptible to explosive runs. Mixon isn’t the most explosive runner, so I’m not expecting him to take advantage of Buffalo’s weakness.
I wrote Gabe Davis off last week, and he shoved it in my face by catching nine balls for 87 yards and a touchdown. Davis’ usage fluctuates, but he certainly has big upside. He runs a route on practically every dropback, and Buffalo usually leans pass-heavy.
Dalton Kincaid saw a price bump after last week’s performance, where he caught five of seven targets for 65 yards and a touchdown. Cincinnati has allowed the most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends, giving Kincaid appeal. I prefer Davis to Kincaid, but I definitely prefer Tee Higgins to both. Higgins has had some rough outings as of late, but he’s simply underpriced.
He has a 22% target rate per route run, runs a route on practically every dropback, and is capable of big performances. He looks like the top option in the mid-range.
James Cook has maintained a solid role with Buffalo and has finally been priced accordingly. He was priced way too close to the studs on the last few showdown slates, and now he comes in as a solid mid-range value. There are many attractive pieces tonight, but Cook’s volume at an affordable tag is very appealing. Cincinnati has allowed the sixth-most yards per carry to opposing backs.
Tyler Boyd has made the most of his volume as of late, as he has a middling 17% target share and 16% air-yards share on the year. He runs most of his routes from the slot, and although he doesn’t boast the highest ceiling, he should be set up for success here.
Trayveon Williams is simply too expensive for his role with Mixon healthy.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Khalil Shakir ($3,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Khalil Shakir took a stranglehold of the WR3 role, and he is definitely too cheap after running a route on 73% of the dropbacks last week.
- Irv Smith Jr. ($1,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Irv Smith Jr. saw solid usage last week, catching four of four balls for 25 yards. Buffalo is more vulnerable to tight ends due to all their defensive injuries, thrusting Smith Jr. into viability at such a cheap price.
- Trent Sherfield ($400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Sherfield ran a route on 33% of the dropbacks last week, and he looks like the best punt option on the slate.
