Sunday Night Football gives us an intriguing matchup between the Vikings and Broncos at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Broncos are listed as three-point home favorites, while the total sits at 42 points.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
The Denver defense has turned it around as of late, as they’ve allowed just 6.8 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks since Week 5. Dobbs is still one of the top options Sunday.
Russell Wilson has led the Broncos to three straight wins, throwing for six touchdowns and no interceptions over that stretch. Wilson projects slightly worse than Dobbs, but he is appealing nonetheless. The Vikings run Cover 2 at the highest rate in the league, while Wilson has the second-highest passer rating against Cover 2.
Regardless of who’s at quarterback, T.J. Hockenson has been a volume monster. He roasted the Saints in his last time out, catching 11 of 15 targets for 134 yards and a touchdown. He’s had double-digit DraftKings points in all but one game this year, which is rare at the tight end position.
Hockenson has a 43% target share with Dobbs under center, and Denver has allowed the third-highest catch rate and second-most yards per target to opposing tight ends.
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
The mid-range is jam-packed, with Javonte Williams leading the way. He’s one of my first clicks on tonight’s slate, with 30 and 25 opportunities over the past two weeks. Minnesota has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per carry to opposing backs, but Williams’ volume keeps me confident.
Denver has been stout against WR1s, which makes me cautious about Jordan Addison‘s outlook. Stefon Diggs had just three catches for 34 yards in Denver’s last game. Addison has seen seven targets in back-to-back games, still making him a viable option.
I prefer Addison to the Broncos duo of Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Sutton found the end zone again last week, giving him a touchdown in six of his last seven games. Sutton has over 50% of the team’s end-zone targets, as Wilson consistently looks to him when it counts.
However, I once again prefer Jeudy and am prepared to pay for it. Minnesota has gotten shelled by slot receivers, and Jeudy has a team-high target share against zone coverage.
Alexander Mattison is listed as questionable with a concussion, but he is expected to play. If he’s active, I’m mostly uninterested in him and Ty Chandler. If Mattison were to miss, I’d have a lot of interest in Chandler. Denver has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate in the league.
K.J. Osborn was dealing with a concussion, but he’s expected to be a full go Sunday night. He is a little bit too expensive, but he’s certainly viable. He could see a little more work with Addison likely seeing shadow coverage.
Marvin Mims Jr. played on a career-high 69% of the offensive snaps in Week 9. He sadly continued to see minimal volume, with one target and one carry. He’s once again too expensive for his role, but he’s definitely capable of making a big splash play.
Brandon Powell mans the slot for Minnesota, running a route on just over two-thirds of the dropbacks with Justin Jefferson sidelined. He’s a viable value option, but he’s not the strongest option by any means.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Samaje Perine ($3,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Despite Javonte Williams dominating the rushing work, Perine has still been leaned on for passing downs and long-down-and-distance situations. He’s a solid option in builds that expect Minnesota to get up big.
- Lucas Krull ($200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): Lucas Krull ran a route on 43% of dropbacks last week, as Adam Trautman isn’t getting it done for New Orleans. If he’s active again, he’s a strong value option.
