NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown for Panthers vs. 49ers Monday Night Football (11/24)

NFL Week 12 wraps up with the “Christian McCaffrey Bowl.” The San Francisco 49ers will host the Carolina Panthers, with the 49ers listed as 7.5-point home favorites. The total for this contest sits at 49.5 points.

Both of these teams are right on the fringes of the NFC playoff picture. The 49ers are currently in seventh place in the conference, but a loss would drop them behind the Lions. The Panthers are ninth in the conference standings, but they’re tied with the Buccaneers for the NFC South lead. A win over the 49ers would push them atop the Bucs in the standings since Carolina has yet to have their bye week.

Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Monday Night Football.

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Fittingly, the DFS analysis for this game starts with McCaffrey. He’s taking on his old team, and McCaffrey is back to be one of the best players in all of fantasy. He had an injury-plagued 2024-25 season, but he’s currently first at running back in terms of PPR points per game. McCaffrey has posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but two games this season, and he’s had at least 35.1 DraftKings points in three of his past five. That gives him a nice combination of floor and ceiling.

McCaffrey is doing it more as a pass-catcher than a runner this season. His efficiency on the ground is way down compared to his peak. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry in his lone full season with the 49ers, but he’s at just 3.7 so far this year. He’s also had just six rushing touchdowns in 11 games after logging 14 in 16 games two years ago.

However, McCaffrey continues to post a WR1-like workload as a receiver. He leads all running backs with a 25% target share, and the rest of his utilization stats are elite. He’s played on 96% of the long-down-and-distance snaps, and he’s handled 87% of the short-yardage opportunities. That includes 82% of the carries from inside the five-yard line. Finding a running back who excels in both areas is extremely rare, and it gives McCaffrey the most valuable workload in all of fantasy.

McCaffrey is coming off one of his best rushing performances of the season last week, averaging 6.2 yards per carry with two touchdowns. He added a third score through the air, and he could’ve done more if not for the game turning into a blowout.

He’ll have a chance to build upon that success vs. the Panthers. They’re merely 20th in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the 10th-most PPR points per game to opposing RBs. The 49ers are also listed as big favorites, and McCaffrey has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.52 when favored by at least a touchdown since joining the 49ers (per the Trends tool).

Ultimately, he owns the top median and floor projections on the slate, and he ranks second in projected Plus/Minus. He also owns the top optimal lineup rate at Captain by nearly 10% in Sim Labs.

Rico Dowdle is the other RB in this contest, and he’s produced like a stud as the Panthers’ starter this season. In his first three games as the team’s starting running back, he tallied a ridiculous 519 rushing yards, 95 receiving yards, and four total touchdowns. He produced at least 31.1 DraftKings points in each outing, so he looked like a clear-cut RB1 for fantasy purposes.

However, he’s taken a clear step back over his past two contests. He’s averaged just 2.6 yards per attempt during that stretch, though he did manage to punch in the team’s lone touchdown in their loss to the Saints.

Still, Dowdle’s workload has been fantastic. Since replacing Chuba Hubbard as the team’s starter in Week 9, Dowdle has handled 79% of the team’s rushing attempts. He’s also posted a 15% target share, and he’s garnered every rushing opportunity from inside the five-yard line. If he can regain his early-season efficiency, Dowdle has the potential for some big games with that type of utilization.

There are some potential game script concerns vs. the 49ers, but it’s also a solid matchup. Their defense has suffered since losing Fred Warner to a season-ending injury, and the Panthers have blocked well for most of the season: they rank seventh in PFF‘s run block grade.

Dowdle also stands out in Sim Labs. No player has a larger discrepancy between projected ownership and optimal lineup rate in the Captain slot. He’s expected to be significantly over-owned at Flex, so using him in the premium spot makes a lot of sense.

Brock Purdy made his long-awaited return from injury last week, and he picked up basically right where he left off. He completed 19 of 26 passes for 200 yards and three touchdowns, finishing with 19.3 DraftKings points. He’s played in just three games this season, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of them.

Two years ago, Purdy put himself in the MVP conversation with how efficiently he ran the 49ers’ offense. They were a top-three offense in every category of note, including No. 1 in EPA per play.

Now that the 49ers are nearing full strength, they might reascend to that level. The early results were promising, with the team racking up 41 points vs. the Cardinals last week. This isn’t quite the same team as in 2023-24 – Deebo Samuel is gone and Brandon Aiyuk is sidelined – but there is still more than enough around Purdy to make him an excellent fantasy passer for the rest of the year.

The Panthers haven’t been quite as susceptible against the pass as they have vs. the run, but Purdy still has the top ceiling projection on the slate. He also ranks first in projected Plus/Minus, so he’s undoubtedly one of the best targets of the day.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

Tetairoa McMillan has stepped right into the Panthers’ No. 1 receiver role as a rookie. He’s handled 28% of the team’s targets, which is the 11th-best mark in the NFL. He ranks eighth in air yards share, so he’s had a clear WR1 workload for fantasy purposes.

The only issue has been his team’s offense. The Panthers are merely 28th in points per game, and they’re not much better in terms of yardage. It means that McMillan is getting a large slice of a relatively small pie.

When the Panthers play well as an offense, McMillan tends to post strong results. He’s coming off the best game of his young career last week, finishing with eight catches for 130 yards and two touchdowns. He ultimately racked up 36.0 DraftKings points, which was the second-best score for any receiver last week.

McMillan has a wide range of outcomes, but his matchup vs. the 49ers is a good one. They’ve been very susceptible against the pass, ranking 29th in pass defense EPA for the year. They’ve also allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers.

If you are going to go with McMillan, pairing him with his quarterback makes a ton of sense. He and Bryce Young have a near-perfect +0.90 correlation. Top receivers usually pair well with their quarterbacks, but that’s one of the highest figures I’ve personally ever seen.

With that in mind, it makes sense that Young is also coming off his best game of the season. He finished with 34.82 DraftKings points last week, which also ranked second at his position. He attempted 45 passes vs. the Falcons, and he responded with 448 yards and three touchdowns.

Unfortunately, that stands out as an outlier compared to what Young has done for the rest of the year. Before that contest, he had averaged just 11.6 fantasy points per game, good for the 36th-best mark at quarterback.

Still, Young is still developing, and he finished last season on a high note. Perhaps he can do the same in 2025-26. He should see excellent volume for the second straight week, and the matchup vs. the 49ers is fantastic. He leads all players with a +5.4 Opponent Plus/Minus.

Deciphering the 49ers’ trio of pass-catchers will be one of the toughest tasks for DFS players on this slate. We haven’t seen a ton of George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall on the field together this season, and even less alongside Purdy. However, all three players were at least in the lineup last week.

Kittle posted a 26% target share in that outing, and he responded with six catches, 67 yards, and two touchdowns. He’s now played two games with Purdy under center, and he’s dominated in both. He was targeted on 31% of his routes run in his first game of the season, and he finished with 12.5 PPR points before exiting in the second quarter with an injury. It’s enough to give him the clear edge in projections among the trio.

Jennings also had a 26% target share last week, though he only managed to catch four of his six targets. It was a week where the 49ers didn’t need to attempt many passes, and Jennings failed to catch one of Purdy’s three touchdowns.

However, Jennings did post a positive Plus/Minus in his two previous outings, and while those came with Mac Jones under center, Jennings still appears to be the team’s top receiver. He owns the best projected Plus/Minus of the trio, and he’s a clear value across the industry.
Pearsall is the x-factor. He returned to the lineup for the first time in nearly two months, and he wasn’t heavily limited in his return. He racked up an 85% route participation, which was only slightly worse than his pre-injury mark.

However, Pearsall finished with just two targets in that contest, and he caught just one pass for zero yards. It seemingly places him fourth in the team’s pecking order, behind Kittle, McCaffrey, and Jennings. Pearsall also had 15% and 18% target shares in his other two games with Purdy under center.

Of course, we’re talking about a pretty small sample size here. It’s possible that Pearsall takes on a larger role moving forward, but the numbers suggest he’s a bit overpriced.

Xavier Legette is the Panthers’ No. 2 receiver, but the gap between him and McMillan is pretty vast. He has just a 16% target share for the year, and his role has shrunk in recent weeks. Legette did manage to score a touchdown in Week 11, but he had a season-low 63% route participation. He relied on efficiency more than volume, and that’s not going to be a weekly occurrence for the Panthers. He ultimately owns the worst projected Plus/Minus among relevant players.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Matt Gay has the clear edge among the quartet in our projections, which is not surprising as a big favorite in a high-total game. However, the 49ers Defense is showing up as the most undervalued in Sim Labs. They’re currently projected for less than 10% ownership in the Flex spot, but their optimal lineup rate checks in at 27%.
• Chuba Hubbard ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) – Since Dowdle took over as the team’s starting RB, Hubbard hasn’t topped 3.8 PPR points in a single game. He’s still far too expensive.
• Jalen Coker ($4,000 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) – It’s possible that Coker has overtaken Legette in the pecking order. He wasn’t quite as productive from a fantasy standpoint last week, but he saw more routes than Legette for the second straight game. That makes him a very appealing value option against a leaky 49ers’ pass defense.
• Brian Robinson ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – Robinson is not seeing a ton of opportunities most weeks, but he does have eight carries in back-to-back games. He’s also scored a touchdown in two of his past three outings. If you think this game turns into a blowout, Robinson could be the guy killing the clock for the 49ers down the stretch.
• Demarcus Robinson ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) – With the 49ers getting healthier, Robinson has shifted into the WR3 role. Unfortunately, he had just a 4% target share last week. 
• Ja’Tavion Sanders ($2,800 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – The Panthers employ a committee at tight end, but Sanders has been their top option for most of the year. He has a 12% target share, though he’s cracked double-digit fantasy points just once in eight games. However, he has seen at least four targets in back-to-back games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in both.
• Tommy Tremble ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) – Tremble is the other tight end in Carolina, though his usage in the passing game has been much more sparse. He has an 8% target share for the year, and that figure has dipped to just 4% since Week 7.
• Kyle Juszczyk ($1,400 DraftKings, $1,800 FanDuel) – Juszczyk is always a threat for a cheap target or carry. He doesn’t bring much upside to the table, but he also shouldn’t kill you at a near-minimum salary.

Pictured: Christian McCaffrey
Photo Credit: Imagn