After back-to-back wins for the second time this season, the San Francisco 49ers can take the lead in the NFC West with a win over their division rivals, the Arizona Cardinals. The 49ers are eight-point favorites as this Monday Night Football game will take place in Mexico City.
The 49ers rallied to beat the Chargers at home last week to get back above .500, leaning heavily on the run game. They got contributions from Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell, who had 89 rushing yards on 18 carries in his first game since Week 1.
This game features a 42.5 game total, and the over has hit in the last four Cardinals’ games. Getting a “home game” in Mexico City instead of Arizona may be just what the Cardinals need, as they are 1-4 at home this season. The status of Kyler Murray will be crucial news to monitor, as he missed the last game due to a hamstring injury. DeAndre Hopkins is also questionable, while Zach Ertz and Marquise Brown will not play.
A huge NFC West game in Mexico City for both teams? Sign me up!
Picking a parlay for tonight’s game is super easy with the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator, which leads to plus-expected value wagers for this primetime showdown.
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Cardinals vs. 49ers Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay, the Parlay IQ tool will calculate the expected win rate as you add more wagers to your bet slip. It then compares the projected odds to the actual odds on FanDuel, identifying how much value you’re getting on each wager.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
James Conner Over 19.5 Receiving Yards
The Cardinals’ offense is starting to run out of bodies, but James Conner is back in the lineup after missing three games with an ankle injury earlier this season. Conner played 65 of the 68 offensive snaps last week and had 21 rushes for 69 yards and two touchdowns. He was also active in the passing game, with three receptions for 17 yards.
With Ertz and Brown out and Hopkins questionable, Conner may get more looks in the passing game this week. The Cardinals may struggle on the ground, but they could have a bit more success through the air. The 49ers rank 10th in pass defense DVOA and third in rush defense DVOA per Football Outsiders.
When Conner was healthy early in the season, he averaged 23.8 receiving yards in the first four games. Taking out the game where he was injured, Conner has at least three receptions in five of six games. He had a season-high 24 touches last game and will be heavily involved tonight as the Cardinals try to move the ball against this stout defense.
Game Total Over 42.5 Points
With the over hitting so frequently in Cardinals’ games recently, we’ll gladly take the over at this low total of 42.5 points. The Cardinals are averaging 29 points per game since Hopkins has returned from suspension. Even with Murray out of the lineup last week, they still managed to 27 points in a road game vs. the Rams. The Cardinals rank fourth in pace this season and will need to make this a higher-scoring game to be competitive.
That said, most of the scoring is expected to come from the 49ers, who are averaging 25.3 points per game since the arrival of McCaffrey. Exploiting a Cardinals’ defense that ranks 21st in DOVA this season shouldn’t be a problem.
Now that the 49ers are healthy with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Elijah Mitchell back, this offense has plenty of playmakers. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo only has one game with over 300 passing yards this season but has thrown multiple touchdowns in four of his last five games. Stick with the trend and take over 42.5 points.
Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown
It has only been three games, but McCaffrey looks rejuvenated. After scoring three total touchdowns through six games with the Panthers, McCaffrey has already matched that total in half of the games with the 49ers. The 49ers have done a great job of utilizing his diverse skill set, creating ways to get the ball in his hands.
Historically, McCaffrey has dominated teams in the NFC West. He has scored at least one touchdown in eight of his last 10 games against this difficult division. It is hard to see McCaffrey not touching pay dirt in this matchup tonight, with the 49ers implied for 25.25 points. He has become a focal point in this offense since his arrival.
A healthy Mitchell did cut into his workload last game, but it may have also been a hot-hand situation as he was running extremely well. The Cardinals are allowing 25.8 points per game — the fourth-highest mark in the league — so there should be plenty of opportunities for the 49ers to find the paint. McCaffrey is a -145 favorite to get a touchdown tonight, and this prop correlates very nicely with the two previous selections.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
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Based on their simulations, Parlay IQ places the true odds on this parlay at +170, while FanDuel is offering +370. I’ll take that all day.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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