NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown for Chiefs vs. Eagles (Super Bowl 59)

It all comes down to this. There is just one game standing between us and a long, cold offseason, so let’s make sure to enjoy it. The Super Bowl will feature a rematch from two years ago, with the Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Philadelphia Eagles. The Chiefs are currently listed as 1.5-point favorites, while the total sits at 48.5

The Chiefs managed to get the best of the Eagles in an exciting Super Bowl two years ago. They would go on to repeat as champs last season, and now they’re looking to become the first team in Super Bowl history to win in three straight seasons. It would also be Patrick Mahomes’ fourth Lombardi Trophy in just seven years, putting him on a historic pace.

For the Eagles, they’ll be looking to rebound after a disappointing finish in 2023-24. They limped into the postseason before getting eliminated in the Wild Card round, but they’ve made it all the way to the top of the mountain this season. That’s rarer than you might think. Before Jalen Hurts, the last quarterback to lose his Super Bowl debut and make it back was John Elway.

Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Super Bowl LIX.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

While Mahomes has been the biggest story heading into this week, he’s far from the biggest superstar for fantasy purposes. That honor belongs to Saquon Barkley. He put together a historic season in his first year with the Eagles, racking up more than 2,000 rushing yards with 15 touchdowns across 16 games. Overall, he averaged 22.2 PPR points per game during the regular season, which trailed only Ja’Marr Chase among non-quarterbacks.

Barkley has kept his hot streak going into the playoffs. He opened with an uneventful 17.3 DraftKings points vs. the Packers in the Wild Card round, but he’s followed that up with 42.2 and 34.2 DraftKings points in his past two games. He’s rushed for at least 100 yards in both of those outings, and he’s scored five total touchdowns over that span.

It seems unlikely that the Chiefs will be the team that finally figures out how to stop him. The Chiefs have been slightly improved against the run this season, but they surrendered 6.5 yards per attempt to James Cook last week. Cook is a solid running back, but Barkley is definitely better. Putting a running back of his caliber behind the Eagles’ tremendous offensive line is borderline unfair.

The potential game script is a bigger potential concern than the matchup. The Eagles are listed as underdogs in this contest, and running backs tend to perform better in games where their team is favored.

That said, we’ve seen Barkley take the field as an underdog three times with the Eagles, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.18 in those outings (per the Trends tool). He’s a capable pass catcher out of the backfield, so even if the Eagles do fall behind, Barkley still has the potential to be a big part of the game plan.

Ultimately, only three teams have managed to keep Barkley under 15 DraftKings points since the Eagles’ Week 5 bye. He has one of the safest floors in fantasy, and he has an elite ceiling as well.

It’s scary to think what kind of season Barkley would’ve had if he didn’t have to share the backfield with Hurts. He would’ve had a few additional touchdowns at a minimum.

Hurts didn’t have his most prolific statistical season, but he remains a high-end fantasy quarterback due to his rushing ability. Specifically, his ability to be pushed into the end zone by some of his teammates. Hurts rode three rushing touchdowns to 33.44 DraftKings points in the NFC Championship, and he was the No. 6 QB in fantasy points per game during the regular season.

Hurts’ passing numbers don’t jump off the page, but he was also efficient with his attempts. He averaged 8.42 adjusted yards per attempt this season, which was the same that he had during his MVP-caliber campaign two years ago. His passing volume was simply way down this season, with the Eagles running the ball at one of the highest rates in the league.

That gives Hurts multiple paths to a ceiling performance in the Super Bowl. It’s possible that he can continue to do what he’s done all season, but he could also see a few more attempts if the Eagles are forced to play from behind. We haven’t seen Hurts in a lot of trailing game scripts this season, and that’s a pretty tantalizing proposition for fantasy purposes. Hurts racked up more than 300 passing yards and four total touchdowns in his first Super Bowl appearance, and he has arguably the highest ceiling on this slate.

Then there’s Mahomes. If Tom Brady is the GOAT, then Mahomes is the kid; he may not be a fully grown GOAT quite yet, but he’s well on his way to becoming one. He’s looking for his fourth ring – and fourth Super Bowl MVP – in just his seventh season, and he’s made it to the AFC Championship game every year as a starter. That’s pretty ridiculous.

However, Mahomes and the Chiefs have done things a bit differently this year. Their offense wasn’t nearly as explosive as in years past, and they finished the regular season 15th in yards per game and 16th in points. They were merely ninth in EPA per play, and Mahomes finished as merely QB13 in fantasy points per game.

Still, this is Mahomes we’re talking about, and he’s put together some impressive performances down the stretch. That includes the AFC Championship game. He used his legs more than we’ve seen from him at basically any point in the past, turning 11 carries into 43 yards and two touchdowns. Ultimately, he’s scored at least 23.7 DraftKings points in three of his past four games.

Mahomes is going to have to navigate a brutal matchup on Sunday. The Eagles have had one of the best defenses in football down the stretch, and they allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this season.

That said, Mahomes is still grading out well in our NFL Models. He leads the stud trio in projected Plus/Minus, and he also has the top ceiling projection of the group. That does come with the top ownership projection, but I certainly can’t fault you for rostering Mahomes in the biggest game of the season.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

A.J. Brown can be the “forgotten stud” for the Eagles on occasion. He was a victim of their low-volume passing attack this year. He racked up 61 fewer targets during the regular season than he did last year, and he got so bored during a playoff game that he resorted to reading a book on the sidelines.

However, Brown is still an absolute alpha WR1. Including the playoffs, Brown’s target share sits at 34%. That’s No. 2 in the league, trailing only Malik Nabers with the Giants. Brown also gobbled up 52% of Philly’s air yards, which is the top mark in the NFL. Essentially, when the Eagles do take to the air, there’s a good chance that the ball is going in Brown’s direction.

The fact that he managed to turn less than 100 targets into 1,079 yards and seven touchdowns is a testament to his explosiveness. Only three other players managed to accomplish that feat this season, and they’re equally dangerous with the ball in their hands: Nico Collins, George Kittle, and Jameson Williams.

Brown’s fantasy output will ultimately come down to how often you think the Eagles have to throw. If it’s more than usual, he has the potential for a huge performance. That makes him an interesting option in lineups where you’re fading Barkley, especially since the two players have a negative correlation.

Travis Kelce is the Chiefs’ top pass catcher. He’s clearly on the backside of his career, but he remains a massive threat. The Bills managed to keep him in check last week, but he torched the Texans for seven catches, 117 yards, and a touchdown in the divisional round.

The clunker vs. the Bills feels like a major outlier. Over his past 15 postseason outings, Kelce has averaged 9.8 targets, 8.1 receptions, and 93.8 yards per game. He’s also averaged just under a touchdown per outing, so he’s been basically unstoppable.

That said, Kelce is going to have to navigate the same brutal matchup as Mahomes. The Eagles have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, so it’s going to be tough sledding. However, Zach Ertz’s performance against them in the NFC Championship game does provide some reason for optimism. Like Kelce, Ertz is clearly on the decline as a player, but he racked up 11 catches for 104 yards against the Eagles. If Ertz can do it, there’s no reason Kelce can’t do it, too.

Xavier Worthy has stepped into the top receiver role for the Chiefs this season. Part of that has been by default. Rashee Rice went down with a season-ending injury early in the year, while Marquise Brown missed the first 14 games of the season. That hasn’t left the Chiefs with a ton of bodies at the position.

The good news is that Worthy has maintained that role as the team has gotten healthier. In fact, his role has actually expanded down the stretch. He’s posted a 27% target share during the postseason, and he’s been the team’s clear No. 1 receiver in terms of routes run. Most of his utilization comes around the line of scrimmage, but he has the speed to make the most of those touches.

Overall, he seems like a good bet for a handful of targets and maybe a carry or two. He stands out as one of the best pure values in this price range.

DeVonta Smith is an interesting option on this slate. On the surface, Smith’s role with the Eagles has not been the same this season. He’s operated as the clear No. 2 behind Brown at receiver, and even Dallas Goedert has earned more targets of late. Ultimately, Smith has just a 20% target share during the postseason, and he was at 17% in the NFC Championship game.

However, the matchup fits Smith to a T. The Chiefs play a ton of man-to-man coverage, and Smith tends to excel against those types of squads. In three previous matchups vs. the Chiefs, Smith has gone for 99, 122, and 100 receiving yards. This looks like a really nice buy-low opportunity. He was priced as high as $10,000 to start the year, but he’s just $7,400 vs. the Chiefs.

While the Eagles’ backfield is crystal clear – it’s Saquon, Saquon, and more Saquon – the Chiefs are a bit of a headache. Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco have split the workload since the latter returned from injury. Since Week 13, Hunt has handled 40% of the team’s rushing attempts, while Pacheco isn’t far behind at 34%. Samaje Perine also factors into the equation on passing downs, so this situation is one you can avoid completely if you want to.

However, Hunt has been the preferred target for the Chiefs in short-yardage situations of late, which gives him some touchdown upside. He also saw his snap and carry percentage grow in the AFC Championship game. It’s possible that he’s earned a bit of a larger share for the Super Bowl, so he’s the guy to target if you want to take a stab with one of them.

Goedert has garnered some steam this week as a sleeper. It’s pretty easy to see why. He’s racked up a massive 30% target share in the Eagles’ three postseason contests, and he’s had a route participation of at least 87% in back-to-back games. If that continues vs. the Chiefs, he’s undoubtedly underpriced at $5,800.

The matchup vs. Kansas City is also sublime. They’ve struggled mightily against the position this season, allowing the fourth-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. Expect Goedert to be popular, but he’s definitely a viable option on this slate.

Brown hasn’t had a real breakout performance since joining the Chiefs’ rotation, but his underlying metrics are promising. He’s the team’s clear No. 2 receiver from a route standpoint, and he had a healthy 20% target share during the AFC Championship. He’s racked up at least 40% of the team’s air yards in both of their postseason outings, so he’s got plenty of upside for his salary.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. Harrison Butker stands out as the most undervalued of the quartet in Sim Labs, with his projected ownership checking in 1.5% below his optimal lineup rate.
• DeAndre Hopkins ($4,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) – The Chiefs acquired Hopkins before the trade deadline to bolster their receiving corps. He’s had a few moments with the team, but he hasn’t really had the impact that most were expecting. His route participation dipped to just 31% in the AFC Championship, so don’t be surprised if he’s a non-factor in this contest.
• Noah Gray ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Gray was a legit threat for the Chiefs during the regular season, particularly around the goal line. He finished second on the team with five receiving touchdowns, which was two more than Kelce. His route rate dipped to just 20% in the AFC Championship, but it’s possible he plays a bit more in the Super Bowl.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster ($2,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Smith-Schuster was the big winner for the Chiefs last week. His route participation increased to 63%, putting him just slightly behind Brown for second among the team’s receivers. He caught two of three targets for 60 yards vs. the Bills, and it’s possible he’ll be involved once again on Sunday.
• Jahan Dotson ($1,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – The Eagles have a very condensed offense, with most of their opportunities being funneled to Barkley, Brown, Smith, and Goedert. However, Dotson is at least on the field a decent bit. He’s failed to earn a target in either of his past two games, but he has route participations of 77% and 68% in those contests.
• Samaje Perine ($1,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Perine managed to seal the game vs. the Bills with a third-down reception, and he’s a threat to catch a pass or two in the Super Bowl. He’s best used in lineups but around a trailing game script for the Chiefs.