We have another 10-game slate for Week 8, which kicks off at the usual 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Lamar Jackson ($6,800) Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) vs. Chicago Bears (49.5 Total)
Lamar Jackson is officially questionable to make his return in Week 8, but with the Ravens 1-5 through six games and Jackson getting in a full practice on Friday, it seems almost certain that he’ll return from the hamstring injury that has kept him out of the past two games.
Just what capacity he comes back at will be the real question. Hamstring injuries have a relatively high re-injury risk, so if Jackson is at anything less than 100%, the Ravens will probably limit his reps on the ground, at least in terms of designed runs. Convincing Jackson not to break containment and scramble is probably asking too much, but I wouldn’t expect him to be fighting quite so hard for extra yards.
Still, he could do more than enough with just his arm to produce a solid score against the Bears. Chicago ranks 27th in points allowed to QBs, with the biggest scoring total against them coming from pocket passer Jared Goff. Baltimore’s defense is bad enough that Baltimore will probably need to stay aggressive throughout, which helps boost Jackson’s ceiling as well.
Ultimately, the case for Jackson in tournaments is the typical one for a superstar returning from injury. He’s both cheaper and projecting for less ownership than he otherwise would, and I’d rather be on him too soon than too late, since if we wait for a big game, the opportunity will pass us by. Jackson leads the position in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection.
Saturday Update: Jackson has been ruled out for Week 8, with Josh Allen replacing him as the median and ceiling projection leader.
Value: Michael Penix ($4,900) Atlanta Falcons (-7.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (44.5 Total)
There’s a fairly big group of QBs just behind Jackson in terms of Pts/Sal value, the cheapest among them being Penix. Like Jackson, he’s officially questionable but likely to suit up for the Falcons, who have a great home matchup against the Dolphins.
With Atlanta’s defense being one of the league’s best and their offense ranking 22nd in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), there’s a reasonable concern about Penix seeing much passing volume. The nice thing is that his sub-$5,000 salary means he doesn’t need to see much volume to be a solid price-considered play, and saving salary is critical on a slate with some strong, but expensive, running back options.
Even so, he’s topped 20 point — or over 4X his Week 8 salary — twice in six games, a solid rate. He provides a bit of upside with his legs, and the Falcons have a top-five implied total on the slate. I wouldn’t roster him expecting him to break the slate, but he could save you enough salary to roster the players who do.
Saturday Update: Penix has been ruled out for Week 8, with Lamar Jackson replacement Tyler Huntley taking the Pts/Sal projection lead by a wide margin.
Quick Hits
Josh Allen ($7,500): Allen is among the group narrowly trailing Jackson in Pts/Sal projection. The key with Allen is always whether he’ll be unleashed enough to justify his price tag, and his Bills are favored by seven against the Panthers. They also lost two in a row before their Week 7 bye, and Allen gives them their best chance to make a statement, so the odds are higher than normal that he’s allowed to take over the game.
Daniel Jones ($6,100): “Indiana Jones” also joins that group, and his Colts have a slate-high 31-point implied total against the Titans. That probably means Jones doesn’t see enough volume at his newly elevated salary to win you a tournament, so I’d only roster him with Titans bring-backs that bank on the unlikely scenario of the Titans keeping things close.
Bo Nix ($6,000): My personal favorite QB play of the week is Denver’s Bo Nix, who gets to play the Cowboys. They’ve allowed 26.7 DraftKings points per game on average to QBs, with the second-place team (Baltimore) allowing 22.9. We’ll discuss some ways for how to build around Nix in the GPP strategy section, but he’s also a solid cash game play.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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