NFL DFS Picks: Week 3 Main Slate DraftKings Breakdown

Football is back! Week 3 features a 13-game main slate that kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud: Caleb Williams ($5,600) Chicago Bears (+1.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (50.5 Total)

Caleb Williams is in the middle of the pack in terms of salary but is now the leader in median and ceiling projection with Jayden Daniels now ruled out. That makes him a strong option both from a ceiling and a value standpoint.

He has the dream game environment this week against a Cowboys team that has given up more than 30 points per game on the young season. Both QBs they’ve faced have put up at least 24 DraftKings points, with Russell Wilson going for 34. Crucially, the Bears defense is also terrible, which should create a fast-paced game environment for both teams. In fact, these two teams rank 31st and 32nd in terms of fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Williams has been a mixed bag in his first two games under Ben Johnson and the new Chicago regime. He’s looked like a borderline elite player during the scripted plays portion of the game before turning back into a pumpkin later in contests once asked to adapt to the changing conditions. However, he’s faced two tough, aggressive defenses so far in the Lions and Vikings and now gets a much easier Cowboys unit.

That doesn’t guarantee Williams can sustain production for 60 minutes, of course, but it certainly raises the odds he turns the corner. Even playing somewhat poorly, he’s put up a floor of about 18 DraftKings points, so his bear case is still 3x his Week 3 salary, with an enormous ceiling. That makes him a fine play in GPPs and cash games alike.

Value: Carson Wentz ($4,000) Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (42.5 Total)

For the second week in a row we have a starting QB priced at the DK minimum, with Wentz taking over in Minnesota from JJ McCarthy. With McCarthy set to miss between two and four weeks, we’ll have a few opportunities to roster Wentz, but just one at this price tag.

Much like Mac Jones last week, Wentz steps into a fairly promising situation. He gets to throw the ball to Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson while facing a bad defense in the Bengals. The downside to Wentz is that Cincinnati is also playing with a backup QB — while facing an elite defense — and might not be able to put up enough points to force any aggression from the Vikings.

That’s reflected in the 42.5 Vegas total for the game, with that mark just a point off from being the lowest on the slate. Still, the Vikings are only favored by three and Wentz is a veteran with plenty of starting experience, so odds are he gets at least a moderate pass volume this week, especially with Minnesota RB Aaron Jones on IR.

Given the likely game flow, the ceiling for Wentz is somewhat limited, but we obviously don’t need a ton from him at his price tag. He leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection (at any position) by a wide margin, making him a pretty obvious cash game play.

Quick Hits

Marcus Mariota ($4,000): News broke on Friday afternoon that Jayden Daniels was missing the Commanders’ Week 3 game against the Raiders. That leaves Mariota to get the start, with a similar implied total and spread as Wentz and the Commanders. We’ll see where the market pushes this one but my early lean is that Mariota is the better play thanks to his rushing upside, but we’ll see where projections settle this weekend.

Jalen Hurts ($6,800): Hurts checks in just behind Daniels in both salary and projections. While he’s not dealing with any injuries, he’s thrown for just 253 scoreless yards across two games, as the Eagles seem content to bleed the clock and play run first unless forced out of their shell. The Rams certainly could force the issue, though, making Hurts a solid GPP play, but only when stacked with Rams pieces in a “bet on a shootout” build.

Dak Prescott ($5,900): Considering his much lower ownership projection, Prescott might be the better of the two QBs in the Bears-Cowboys game. The Cowboys pass rate is about 7% higher than the Bears’ and Prescott is the more proven player, plus Dallas is favored, which means a higher team total. While he lacks Williams’ rushing upside, it’s not a stretch to see him more than making up the difference in the air.

Daniel Jones ($5,400): What if “Indiana Jones” is for real? Jones has topped 25 DraftKings points in consecutive weeks to start his Colts career, despite a tough Week 2 matchup against the Broncos. This week he draws the Titans, who Brandon Anderson ranked as a bottom-five defense heading into the season. One more solid performance and it will be too late to be early on Jones, so I’m loading up on him and the Colts this week.

Justin Herbert ($6,200): Or what if the Broncos defense isn’t actually good? That would be a good thing for Herbert and the Chargers, who lead the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation by a wide margin. Plus, with about 70% of his targets concentrated among three players, he’s pretty easy to stack. Finding Broncos to use as a bring-back is tougher, but odds are one of their skill players emerges with a solid score.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks