Sunday comes with an 11-game main slate starting at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Josh Allen ($7,700) Buffalo Bills (-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (53.5 Total)
If there’s ever a matchup likely to produce a Josh Allen ceiling game, it’s this one. Allen is taking on the Bengals, the NFL’s worst scoring defense in the NFL. Somewhat surprisingly, they haven’t actually been all that bad against QBs, with a slightly negative opponent Plus/Minus score on the season.
However, that’s not because they’ve been good at stopping the pass. On the contrary, opposing teams have been able to build up enough of a lead on the Bengals that they haven’t been forced to be aggressive, leading to better scores for running backs than quarterbacks.
That could change this week, as Cincinnati will finally have their three best offensive players active in the same game for the first time since Week 2. The Bills defense is average at best, so this game could turn into a shootout with both teams putting up big scores. That’s exactly what Allen needs in order to hit his ceiling — both of his 40 (fantasy) point games came when the opposing team scored at least 30 points.
The one potential issue is the weather, as the forecast calls for somewhat cold temperatures, moderate wind, and potentially some snow. If conditions worsen, we might dock Allen’s projections a bit, but as of now, he’s the leader in median and ceiling projections.
Value: Tyrod Taylor ($4,900) New York Jets (+3) vs. Miami Dolphins (41.5 Total)
Tyrod Taylor saw a $600 bump to his salary from last week, following his solid 21.28 DraftKings points against the Falcons in Week 13. That still keeps him short of the $5,000 mark, as he heads into an even better on-paper matchup against the Dolphins.
Miami ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass this season and has allowed the 10th most points to opposing QBs. Much like the Bengals, that number would likely be worse if Miami wasn’t in so many negative game scripts, thanks to their generally poor offensive play this season. They’ve hit their stride in recent weeks though, winning three straight and coming in as favorites against the Jets.
Which should be enough to force a high play volume out of Taylor, who has been reasonably efficient in his limited action this season. In theory he should continue to improve as he builds a rapport with the Jets’ starting wide receivers, particularly in a favorable matchup. He leads the position in Pts/Sal projection and will almost certainly be my cash game QB.
Quick Hits
Lamar Jackson ($6,700): Jackson has a divisional matchup against the Steelers, who have been surprisingly bad against QBs this season, ranking 28th in points allowed to the position. Baltimore is favored by about a touchdown, so the game script might not work out, but Jackson with a Steelers bring-back is an interesting GPP combination. Plus, this is about as cheap as you’ll ever see Jackson’s price tag.
Joe Burrow ($6,500): Burrow might be the QB you need if Bills-Bengals shoots out, especially since his passing volume is so heavily concentrated on his top two receivers. They’ll be together for the first time since Week 2, when Burrow first went down with an injury while facing a mediocre Bills defense. I’ll have some exposure to the classic “Burrow Doubles” GPP stack, likely with the Bills running game as my bring-back.
Jordan Love ($5,900): I highlighted Bears-Packers as a potential sneaky shootout thanks to the strong offensive line matchups for both teams this week. It’s another potential weather game, so keep an eye on the forecast, but as long as it’s just cold (with limited wind or precipitation), it’s a quietly strong spot for Love and the Packers passing attack at low ownership.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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