We’re officially in the second-half of the NFL season with Week 10 upon us. This week, we’ve got another pair of 50+-point totals, as well as some closely lined games with totals in the upper 40s that could provide DFS opportunities.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
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As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Josh Allen ($7,500) Buffalo Bills (-7.5) at New York Jets (50.5 Total)
We’ve got another week where Josh Allen and the Bills are heavy favorites, with Allen simultaneously having the best median and ceiling projections and the highest price. That makes for an interesting DFS discussion, as Allen’s odds of finishing as the top QB are fairly high, but will he lap the field by enough to justify his price tag?
My usual lean in games that Buffalo is expected to control is no. Allen has topped 30 points this season three times, and all of those games involved an opponent who scored at least 30 points. So much of Allen’s value comes from his legs – he’s tied for second in the league in rushing touchdowns – and Buffalo is less likely to call his number at the goal line when the game is in the bag and/or they don’t expect the opponent to be able to keep pace. The Jets rank 25th in overall scoring at just over 20 points per game.
The bull case here is that the Bills defense is somewhat below average, and this game is on the road at the Meadowlands. The combination of matchup and home game might be enough for the Jets to push things a bit here.
As always, my conclusion is that Allen is a decent play – so long as you have a bring-back from the Jets to go with him. There are a handful of good but not really any great options in that department, but mixing and matching those players around Allen is a solid tournament strategy on paper. I’m of the belief there are better approaches to the slate, but it would never be a huge surprise if Allen helped somebody win a tournament.
Value: Tyler Shough ($5,600) New Orleans Saints (-2.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (48.5 Total)
One of those stronger approaches is to build around Tyler Shough and the Saints’ passing game, an angle I detailed earlier this week in my Trenches Report. The line matchups aren’t the only reason this spot looks good, but they certainly paint a picture of how this one could turn into a shootout. Unfortunately, I’m not the only one to have that idea, and now Shough is projecting for the highest ownership at the QB position.
The 48.5 total in this game is a bit shy of the top totals on the slate, but the matchup is the only one with a total over 42.5 and a spread of three or less. Often, what’s important in DFS is how the offenses interact with each other, more than specific defensive matchups, and this one has shootout potential all over it. Both teams are above-average scoring offenses, and both rank in the bottom six in points allowed.
They also are two of the three fastest teams in terms of overall pace, rank above average in PROE, and know they need to be aggressive to cover a poor defense. Plus, the game is indoors at the Superdome, the “Coors Field of Fantasy Football.” When the home favorite QB in a game like this is priced under $6,000, it’s a great spot, and Shough is the clear leader in Pts/Sal projections. Not just at QB, but among all players.
He’s the obvious cash game QB this week, and there are plenty of viable builds around him and this game for tournaments that should allow you to work around his inflated ownership.
Quick Hits
Brock Purdy ($7,000): With the 49ers carrying a slate-high 30-point implied team total, I was surprised to see Purdy not projecting for higher ownership. Not that he’s flying under the radar, but we have him below Shough and his opponent in this matchup. The argument against him is that the extremely limited and concentrated passing attack in San Francisco lowers his ceiling – but he topped 26 DraftKings points in similar situations last week, despite that game being a blowout. I’ll be over the field on Purdy, stacked with Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle in various combinations for this potential shootout at Jerry’s World.
Dak Prescott ($6,400): On the other hand, it makes sense that Dak Prescott would be more popular than Purdy. He’s $600 cheaper and, as a home underdog, will on paper be forced to pass more. He also has a fairly concentrated target share, but that only makes stacks – and bring-backs – easier in this game. The vast majority of my exposure this week will be around Cowboys/49ers and Saints/Panthers, with a relatively even split between the three QBs mentioned so far.
Bryce Young ($5,800): The odd QB out of the games I’m targeting is Bryce Young. Not necessarily because he’s a bad play, but because I have more interest in the Panthers’ running game. With that said, on paper, the game script favors Panthers passing and Saints rushing, so I’ll mix it up a bit by going that way with a smaller percentage of my portfolio.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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