Football is back! Week 1 features a 12-game main slate that kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Jayden Daniels ($7,000) Washington Commanders (-6) vs. New York Giants (45.5 Total)
Jayden Daniels broke out as both a real-life and fantasy star last season, throwing for more than 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns, while adding six scores and 891 yards on the ground en route to their NFC Championship matchup with the eventual Super Bowl champions. That worked out to Daniels being a top-five fantasy option despite missing most of two different contests.
He and the Commanders open 2025 with a tricky matchup against their divisional rivals, the Giants. The G-men held Daniels under 20 DraftKings points in both games last season, two of his lowest scores of the year. They have one of (if not the) best defensive lines in the league, which could work out one of two ways for the fleet-footed Daniels.
The bull case is that the Giants’ over-exuberant pass rush flushes Daniels from the pocket, where he’s able to do damage with his legs. Most of Daniels’ rushing production last season came on scrambles, not designed runs, which typically only happen when a QB is under duress. This one could play out that way, especially if New York keeps it close enough that Daniels is forced to drop back often.
The other view is that the pressure gets to Daniels and forces him into mistakes. New York sacked Daniels five times in their first matchup last season, one of three games where he was sacked at least five times. While some pressure is a good thing for Daniels, too much is obviously a problem.
The good news is Washington has greatly improved their offensive line, trading for former first-round pick Laremy Tunsil and using their first selection of 2025 on another tackle. That’s enough to tip the scales in Daniels’ favor this week.
He leads all QBs in median and ceiling projection and is fairly affordable thanks to the loose Week 1 pricing structure. There are safer bets for cash games, but he’s an elite GPP play. He’s a logical one-off (banking on rushing production) with some obvious stack/bring-back options thanks to fairly concentrated offenses on both teams.
Value: Trevor Lawrence ($5,300) Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (46.5 Total)
While Lawrence isn’t safer than Daniels in the sense that he’s less likely to bust, I’d make him a fairly significant favorite to outscore Daniels from a Pts/Sal standpoint in Week 1. Lawrence is the leader in that category in Week 1, making him potentially the best cash game option.
The biggest reason is the matchup. The Panthers were the NFL’s worst defense by a wide margin last season. The gap between them and 31st-ranked Dallas in points per game was wider than the gap between Dallas and the #19 Jets. I’m largely a believer that defense/matchups aren’t all that important — except at the extremes, where the best and worst units in the league can make a difference.
Carolina did little to address that weakness in the offseason, using their #8 pick on a wide receiver. An improved Panthers offense also works to Lawrence’s fantasy benefit here, as it could push the Jaguars to be more aggressive through the air.
Plus, the Jaguars improved the weaponry around Lawrence by drafting Travis Hunter ($5,000), giving him a solid 1-2 combination of Hunter and sophomore Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,800). Lawrence threw for more than 4,000 yards in 2022 and 2023, so 2025 could be a return to form after a down year.
Which makes Week 1 the perfect time to jump on board, as he may never be this cheap or in this good a matchup again this season.
Quick Hits
Baker Mayfield ($6,600): I was hoping Mayfield would be a bit cheaper, but I’m all in on the NFC South matchup between the Bucs and the Panthers in Week 1. I discussed it as a positive matchup for both offensive lines, giving the game shootout potential. If that happens, the Falcons are likely to get there on the ground, while the Bucs had one of the highest passing rates while trailing last season. That makes the stack of Mayfield and one or two of his receivers paired with Bijan Robinson ($8,000) a solid GPP stack.
Kyler Murray ($6,400): Murray never seems to live up to his fantasy potential but, on paper, has a great matchup with a depleted Saints team in Week 1. It’s the second year for Murray working with Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5,500) and he has one of the best pass-catching TEs in the league in Trey McBride ($6,200) so the weaponry is there. He’d need some help from the Saints offense to truly break the slate, but that’s more likely than his low single-digit ownership implies.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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