Week 9 presents an 11-game main slate on DraftKings on Sunday. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 9.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Daniel Jones ($6,200) + Michael Pittman ($5,900) + Tyler Warren ($5,500)
The Colts have been the best offense in the NFL this season, ranking first in PPG (33.8), and their passing game should flourish in a prime matchup vs. the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s defense has been struggling recently, allowing over 30 points in back-to-back games. During this time, the Steelers are giving up the most passing touchdowns (6) and the fourth-most yards per pass (8.8). This game’s total is the third-highest on the slate (50.5), and Indianapolis’ implied team total is the fifth-highest on the slate (26.75 points) as a three-point favorite.
After many disappointing years with the Giants, Jones has revitalized his career with the Colts this season. The quarterback ranks fourth in yards per pass (8.5), fourth in completion percentage (71.2%), and he has thrown 13 touchdowns to just three picks. Jones has also seen strong usage as a rusher in scoring territory, with 10 red-zone carries, which has resulted in four rushing touchdowns for the veteran. Jones ranks fifth in DraftKings points per dropback (0.63), and he has topped 20 DraftKings points in five of his eight starts this season.
In this juicy spot vs. the Steelers’ struggling secondary, both Pittman and Warren should thrive, and Jones, paired with these two pass catchers, should be a very low-owned stack—both Jones and Pittman are projected for single-digit ownership on DraftKings, according to our projections.
Pittman is leading the Colts with a 23.5% target share this season, including six red-zone targets and six targets over 20 yards. The receiver ranks third in receiving touchdowns (6), and he has eclipsed 20 DraftKings points in two straight games. As for Warren, the rookie has been a sensation this season, ranking fourth among tight ends in DraftKings PPG (13.9).
Warren is right behind Pittman with a 21% target share, and Warren is leading Indianapolis with nine red-zone targets. The 23-year-old has found paydirt in three of his last four games, and Warren could explode given how vulnerable the Steelers are to tight ends. Pittsburgh is giving up the second-most touchdowns (6) and third-most receiving yards to the position (555), and just last week, Tucker Kraft exposed the Steelers for a whopping 36.3 DraftKings points, which is the highest fantasy score by a tight end this season.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000)
Gibbs is the perfect pivot play off Christian McCaffrey, who is expected to be the highest-owned player on the slate, according to our projections. With McCaffrey gaining all that attention, Gibbs is slated for single-digit ownership, and he brings huge upside, as always.
Coming off his bye week, Gibbs is at home and facing the Vikings. While Minnesota is giving up just the 16th-most yards per rush this season (4.3), this is an optimal setup for Gibbs, with the Lions carrying the second-highest total on the slate (28.5 points) and being an 8.5-point home favorite.
Gibbs went off for 39.8 DraftKings points vs. the Buccaneers in his last start, and he ranks third in DraftKings points per snap among running backs this season (0.53). After seeing a near timeshare with David Montgomery last season, Gibbs has seen the much better role of the two Detroit backs this season. The 23-year-old is leading the Lions with 14.9 carries per game—which is 55.6% of the running back carries for Detroit—while logging 61.2% of the snaps. Gibbs ranks fourth in the NFL with 28 red-zone carries, and as a receiver, he is handling a 14.4% target share while running a route on 55% of his team’s dropbacks.
With this immense role, Gibbs is producing 5.5 yards per touch, and when competing as a home favorite, he is averaging 22.2 DraftKings PPG during his career (25 games).
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Khalil Shakir ($5,200)
The Bills are hosting the Chiefs this Sunday for a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game. This is expected to be one of the best matchups of the season, and this game’s total is, unsurprisingly, the highest on the slate (52.5 points). The last three matchups between Buffalo and Kansas City have produced 54.5 PPG, and having exposure to this Sunday’s contest between these two AFC powerhouses is a must.
At only $5,200, and with our projections slating him to be just around 4% owned on DraftKings, Shakir is a sharp way to attack this tilt. The wideout has been Josh Allen’s top target this season, leading the Bills with a 21% target share while running a route on 77% of his team’s dropbacks. Shakir is leading Buffalo with eight red-zone targets, and he is averaging a strong 1.96 YPPR.
The Chiefs are giving up the 12th-fewest yards per pass this season (6.4), but this game being a shootout is inevitable, and Buffalo is likely to be in a negative game script as two-point underdogs. One of Allen’s pass catchers is going to have a big performance, and Shakir is the best bet to deliver. Coming off the Bills’ bye week, the wideout finished with a season-high 20.8 DraftKings points in last Sunday’s win over the Panthers, which is his third effort of at least 14 DraftKings points in his last five starts.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Brock Bowers ($5,000)
The Raiders are coming off their bye week, and they are expected to have Bowers back in the mix. The star tight end hasn’t played since Week 4 due to a nagging knee injury, but he has practiced fully this week and told the media he is “ready to roll.” Bowers was only averaging 11.6 DraftKings PPG this season before missing three games in a row, but he was playing through his knee injury in those games, and after over a month off, he should be back to his normal self.
As a rookie last season, Bowers was fantasy football’s No. 1 scoring tight end with 15.9 DraftKings PPG, and despite playing injured at the beginning of this season, Bowers was still a great target earner, garnering a target on 22% of his routes, including four targets over 20 yards and three red-zone targets in just four games.
Bowers should handle a target share over 20%, and he should run a route on almost all of his team’s dropbacks in his return Sunday. Plus, he is in a great spot vs. the Jaguars, who are yielding the ninth-most yards per catch to tight ends this season (8.3). Las Vegas is likely to throw it at a high clip as three-point underdogs, and Bowers has 20 DraftKings points upside in this spot. The 22-year-old’s $5,000 salary is the cheapest he has been on DraftKings since Week 3 of his rookie season, and our projections are forecasting him to come with single-digit ownership on DraftKings.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
Pictured: Jahmyr Gibbs
Photo Credit: Imagn
