Week 8 presents a 10-game main slate on DraftKings on Sunday. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 8.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Lamar Jackson ($6,800) + Zay Flowers ($5,400) + Rome Odunze ($6,300)
This Ravens vs. Bears matchup carries the second-highest total on the slate (49.5 points), and this is the perfect time to buy low on all three of these players. Jackson has missed two games in a row with a hamstring strain, but he has logged back-to-back limited practices as of Thursday, and Baltimore being a 6.5-point favorite over Chicago means the Vegas oddsmakers fully believe Jackson will make his return.
After missing some time, Jackson’s salary on DraftKings has dipped under $7,000 for the first time since December 2020, and he is an incredible value at only $6,800. This season, Jackson has scored at least 27 DraftKings points in three of his four starts, and that lone outlier came when he hurt his hamstring vs. the Chiefs and exited the game early. Among quarterbacks, Jackson ranks first in DraftKings points per dropback (0.81) and yards per pass (9.1). The dual-threat quarterback has thrown 10 touchdowns to just one interception, and as a rusher, Jackson has run the ball 21 times in just four games, including three red zone attempts. Sitting at 1–5, every game is a must-win for the Ravens, and Baltimore’s implied team total is the second-highest on the slate (27.5 points) against a Bears defense giving up the fifth-most yards per pass this season (7.4). Jackson shouldn’t disappoint in this spot, and he has the highest ceiling among quarterbacks in our projections.
Flowers should get back on track with Jackson back under center, and Flowers’ salary has hit a season-low $5,400 on DraftKings due to the wideout unsurprisingly struggling with Jackson sidelined. Flowers is averaging 15.9 DraftKings PPG with Jackson starting this season, and in those four contests, he leads the Ravens with a 29.5% target share, including seven targets over 20 yards. The receiver ranks 13th in the NFL in YPPR (2.31), and Chicago is allowing the second-most touchdowns (40) and the fifth-highest completion percentage on targets over 20 yards (52.8%). Flowers and Jackson should connect on some deep balls in this prime spot, resulting in big fantasy days for both players.
Concluding this game stack is Odunze, who should be low-owned after back-to-back single-digit DraftKings point showings—our projections have him around 7% owned on DraftKings. While these recent performances have been disappointing, they’ve largely been the result of the Bears leading for most of the past two games, which has translated into Chicago ranking second-to-last in pass rate during that span (50%). However, things should be much different this week, with the Bears likely to be playing from behind in a negative game script as 6.5-point underdogs. Chicago should be forced to air it out, and Odunze should be resurrected.
The receiver leads the Bears with a 24.9% target share, including six red-zone targets and 11 targets over 20 yards, which ranks fifth in the league. Odunze ranks 16th in aDOT (14.2), and this is a great matchup for him, as the Ravens are yielding the 10th-most yards per pass (6.9) and the seventh-highest completion percentage on targets over 20 yards (50%). Odunze has competed as an underdog five times this season, producing 17.6 DraftKings PPG in those contests.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Chase Brown ($5,400)
In the Bengals’ second game with Joe Flacco at quarterback, their offense finally came alive, scoring a season-high 33 points in a win over the Steelers last week. Brown was huge in this victory and had his best game of the season, rushing 11 times for 108 yards and scoring 15.0 DraftKings points. Brown produced a career-high 9.8 YPC, which ranked first among all the backs who saw at least 10 carries in Week 7.
Brown clearly still has plenty of upside when Cincinnati’s offense is in a plus spot, which is exactly the case this Sunday. The Bengals will be at home and hosting the hopeless 0-7 Jets. For this tilt, Cincinnati is a 6.5-point favorite, and the Bengals carry a 25.5-point implied team total.
Cincinnati should feed Brown the rock in this situation, giving him great upside relative to his depressed salary. This season, Brown is leading the Bengals with 12.1 carries per game – which is 76% of the team’s running back carries – while logging 63% of the snaps. The 25-year-old has been heavily relied on in scoring territory with 13 red-zone carries but only has one touchdown to his name, so positive regression for Brown in this department is coming soon. As a receiver, he is running a route on 50% of his team’s dropbacks, and he has seen a target on an excellent 36% of those routes, including three red-zone targets.
Brown is averaging 16.3 DraftKings PPG for his career when competing as a favorite and playing behind an implied team total of at least 25 points, and he is only forecasted to be around 10% owned on DraftKings according to our projections.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Michael Pittman ($5,600)
Hosting the Titans, the Colts present the highest implied team total on the slate (30.75 points), and Pittman is a great way to gain access to Indianapolis’s offense, which shouldn’t be overly popular. The Colts are a huge 14.5-point favorite, so they are likely to be playing with a lead for a good chunk of this contest, but Pittman very well could be one of the main reasons that Indianapolis gets way ahead in this perfect matchup for the receiver.
Pittman is averaging 14.6 DraftKings PPG this season, and he has scored over 20 DraftKings points twice, including just last week vs. the Chargers. Pittman is leading the Colts in target share (22.4%) and route rate this season (89%). Notably, he has seen six red-zone targets and five targets over 20 yards.
70.7% of Pittman’s routes have come out wide and to players who line up wide this season; Tennessee is allowing the highest completion percentage (73.7%), the second-most yards per pass (10.4), and the second-most catches over 15 yards (27).
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Kyle Pitts ($3,900)
Pitts is fresh off a 13.2 DraftKings point outing vs. the 49ers, which is the third time in six games this season that he has scored double-digit DraftKings points. Pitts racked up a season-high 10 targets last week, and this season, the tight end is handling a 17.4% target share – including three red-zone targets – while running a route on 91% of his team’s dropbacks.
On the menu for this Sunday is a matchup with the Dolphins, who are giving up the fifth-most yards per pass this season. Specifically to tight ends, Miami is allowing the fifth-highest completion percentage (80.4%) and the sixth-most receiving yards (439).
The Dolphins are arguably the best matchup in the NFL, and Atlanta’s implied team total ranks fifth on the slate (26 points). In this elite spot, Pitts is a sensational, cheap target for GPPs. In our projections, Pitts presents a top-five ceiling among tight ends, and he is projected for single-digit ownership on DraftKings.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
Pictured: Chase Brown
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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