Week 4 delivers an 11-game main slate on DraftKings on Sunday. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 4.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Geno Smith ($5,400) + Brock Bowers ($5,800) + Rome Odunze ($6,300)
The Raiders and the Bears go head-to-head in Las Vegas this Sunday and this is one of the best games on the slate to target. Las Vegas and Chicago are two of the five worst-graded defenses on PFF this season and this contest’s total is the fourth-highest on the slate (47.5). Plus, the Raiders are only favored by 1.5 points. This should be a back-and-forth high scoring affair and Smith is one of the best quarterback values available at only $5,400 in this setting.
This season, Smith has scored at least 21 DraftKings points in two of his three starts and he ranks eighth in yards per pass (7.8). Smith has thrown four touchdowns, but he has also thrown four picks. That being said, three of those interceptions came against an elite Chargers’ secondary in Week 2 that is giving up the fewest passing touchdowns (2) and the second-fewest yards per pass in the NFL (5.1). This week’s matchup with the Bears is the complete opposite, as Chicago is yielding the most passing touchdowns (8) and the fourth-most yards per pass in the league (8.0). In this gorgeous spot, Smith could throw for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards.
The Bears are giving up the most catches to tight ends this season (24) and Bowers should be in store for his best performance of the season. Bowers posted 18.3 DraftKings points vs. the Patriots in Week 1, but he hurt his knee in that game and after this, he didn’t crack double-digit DraftKings points in his next two starts. However, Bowers ran a route on a season-high 91% of his team’s dropbacks last week after fellow Raiders tight end Michael Mayer exited with a concussion. The veteran has yet to practice this week and almost certainly won’t suit up Sunday. Meanwhile, Bowers has been a full participant in practice every day this week, after he was limited in every session last week. So, not only will Bowers be on the field for almost every play this week with Mayer missing, but Bowers also appears to finally be healthy again. The tight end has been targeted on 22% of his routes this season – including four targets over 20 yards and two red-zone targets – and Bowers should feast in this juicy spot vs. Chicago. Las Vegas carries a 24.5-point implied team total this Sunday, which is the largest team total Bowers has ever played behind.
Odunze is the obvious bring-back for Raiders’ stacks this week. The second-year receiver has been the Bears’ No. 1 weapon under HC Ben Johnson this season and it hasn’t been close. Odunze is leading Chicago with a 28.4% target share, while DJ Moore ranks second at 16.4%. Odunze has seen seven targets over 20 yards and four red-zone targets, both of which are also team highs. With Odunze’s newfound elite role, he is averaging 21.9 DraftKings PPG, which ranks third among all receivers. The Raiders are giving up the sixth-most yards per pass (7.6) and Odunze should be very busy in this matchup.
While Bowers is expected to crack double-digit ownership on DraftKings this week, Smith and Oduzne are slated for single-digit ownership according to our projections. As a result, very few lineups should feature this affordable, high-upside stack.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Woody Marks ($4,400)
Marks is going to come with little-to-no ownership this week and the rookie is in a great position to have a breakout performance. The inevitable has begun to happen for the Texans’ backfield, with Marks slowly becoming the team’s lead back over the struggling Nick Chubb. Marks’ snap share has increased every week and this past Sunday vs. the Jaguars, Marks and Chubb were neck-and-neck in usage in a competitive contest.
Chubb saw nine carries while logging 52.4% of the snaps and he saw three targets on his 17 routes, while Marks saw six carries while logging 47.2% of the snaps and he saw two targets on his 19 routes. All of these numbers set season highs for Marks and he notably saw the lone red-zone carry for the Texans.
Marks only finished with 4.6 FPTS, but his role is trending upwards and the 24-year-old is in an excellent spot Sunday, at home and facing the Titans, who have been shredded on the ground this season, giving up the fourth-most yards per rush (5.3). Houston is a seven-point home favorite and in this situation, Marks could be in line for 10-15 touches, giving him an outstanding chance to outproduce this low salary. This season, Marks is generating 0.8 FPTS per touch, which is better than the likes of Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams, Breece Hall, and Bucky Irving, just to name a few.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Jameson Williams ($5,900)
The Lions are back at home this week and carry the second-highest implied team total on the slate (27 points). As we saw in their lone home game in Week 2, when Detroit exploded for 52 points vs. the Bears, the Lions are an unstoppable force at home, and having a piece of their offense is a must this week.
Williams went off for 21.8 DraftKings points in that home eruption for Detroit in Week 2 and he brings similar upside this Sunday vs. the Browns. Cleveland has been susceptible to players who line up wide this season, which is exactly Williams’ role, as 76.7% of his routes have come out wide this season. To players who line up wide, the Browns are giving up the fourth-highest completion percentage (73.4%), the eighth-most yards per pass (9.5) and the ninth-most receptions over 15 yards (9).
Williams’ 13% target share has been modest this season, but he ranks sixth in aDOT (17.8) and 12th among receivers in DraftKings points per touch (3.52), so more big performances are coming for Williams, possibly as soon as this Sunday. According to our projections, the wideout is only forecasted to be around 2% owned on DraftKings.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Juwan Johnson ($4,200)
While Johnson is facing a tough Bills’ defense that is giving up the fifth-fewest yards per pass (5.3), Johnson is severely underpriced for his role, and the tight end should see heavy volume. The Saints are a huge 15.5-point road underdog vs. Buffalo and New Orleans airing it out in this spot is inevitable.
Under HC Kellen Moore this season, Johnson has been the most utilized tight end in the league and his 14.2 DraftKings PPG makes Johnson the No. 2 scoring player at his position. The tight end is handling a 29.2% target share while running a route on 87% of his team’s dropbacks, both of which rank first among all tight ends. Johnson also ranks third in red-zone targets at his position (4) and he has seen two targets over 20 yards.
This is truly elite usage for a tight end and Johnson soon is going to be consistently priced over $5,000 with this type of role. The veteran has 15+ DraftKings point upside this week and with most scared of the Bills’ defense, Johnson is slated for single-digit ownership on DraftKings, according to our projections.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
Pictured: Jameson Williams
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
