Sunday delivers a nine-game slate for Week 17. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 17.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify undervalued targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
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Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Trevor Lawrence ($6,100) + Jakobi Meyers ($5,300) + Brenton Strange ($4,000)
The Jaguars clinched a playoff spot last weekend, but they are still fighting for the top seed in the AFC South with the Texans. Winning a division title ensures that team a first-round home playoff game, so winning this Sunday’s matchup vs. the Colts is very important for this ascending Jacksonville team that has won six games in a row. Meanwhile, Indianapolis has lost five straight and is eliminated from the playoffs.
The Jaguars carry the third-highest implied team total on the slate (27.5 points), and this is a terrific spot for Lawrence, as the Colts have become a pass-funnel defense. Over the last three weeks, their defense has given up the fourth-fewest yards per rush (3.5) but the fourth-most yards per pass in the league (8.1). Attacking Indianapolis through the air is the key to beating this team right now, and this was on full display this past Monday night when Brock Purdy had his best game of the season vs. the Colts. The quarterback threw for 295 yards, five touchdowns, and one pick, resulting in 31.9 DraftKings points.
Now Indianapolis meets Lawrence, who is playing at an MVP level. Ever since the Jaguars’ bye in Week 8, the quarterback is averaging 8.0 yards per pass, and he has thrown 17 touchdowns to six picks. Also, during this eight-game stretch, Lawrence is averaging 5.3 carries per game and has seen 15 red-zone carries—more than any other quarterback in the NFL. Lawrence has turned this volume into five rushing touchdowns and has rushed for at least 20 yards in six of these eight games.
Lawrence is thriving as both a passer and a rusher right now, and he has scored 47.3 DraftKings points vs. the Jets and 31.16 DraftKings points vs. the Broncos in his last two starts. After torching Denver’s premier defense, facing the Colts should feel like a breeze for Lawrence, and the sky is the limit for the quarterback in this spot.
With Lawrence thriving, Meyers has been one of the main beneficiaries for the Jaguars. Since making his debut with Jacksonville in Week 9, Meyers is leading the team with a 23.7% target share and has seen seven red-zone targets. Meyers has scored at least 14 DraftKings points in three of his last five, including a 21.3-DraftKings-point outburst vs. the Titans.
Strange has also been playing well, scoring at least 13 DraftKings points in three of his five games since returning from injured reserve in Week 12. The tight end is handling a 16.8% target share and has seen seven red-zone targets during this five-game run.
Lawrence, Meyers, and Strange all could have great performances relative to their DFS salaries in this favorable spot vs. the Colts. While these three players are all expected to be popular plays, a low percentage of lineups should feature all three together.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Saquon Barkley ($7,600)
Jonathan Taylor is expected to be the most popular high-end running back for this slate, with a 27.5% ownership projection in our models. As the Colts have struggled and lost five straight, Taylor’s numbers have been modest by his standards, with no more than 16 DraftKings points during this losing streak, and he is facing a Jaguars defense this Sunday that is giving up the fifth-fewest yards per rush this season (4.0). Taylor feels like a trap play this week, and pivoting to Barkley—who is $200 cheaper, projected for just 10% ownership, and in a much better matchup vs. the Bills—is a sharp move for GPPs.
Buffalo is a run-funnel defense, as it is giving up the sixth-fewest yards per pass (6.0) but the most rushing touchdowns (22) and the second-most yards per rush this season (5.4). Barkley has been getting fed the rock, with at least 20 carries in five of his last seven, and that should continue vs. the Bills’ weak rush defense.
This season, Barkley is handling 80.6% of the Eagles’ running back carries while logging 77.9% of the snaps. In the passing game, the back is running a route on 60% of his team’s dropbacks and seeing a target on 16% of his routes.
Barkley has scored 21.2, 17.2, and 24.2 DraftKings points in his last three, and he should have another big performance as the Eagles look to improve their playoff seeding.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Tee Higgins ($6,300)
Higgins is a standout play for GPPs this week at only $6,300, with our projections forecasting him to be around 10% owned on DraftKings. The Bengals are hosting the Cardinals, who are allowing the fifth-most yards per pass over the last three weeks (7.7), and Cincinnati boasts the highest implied team total on the slate (30.5 points).
Higgins is seeing an 18.4% target share this season, including 20 targets over 20 yards and 11 red-zone targets in 13 games. The wideout is averaging a 13.8 aDOT, and he ranks 16th among receivers in DraftKings points per snap (0.28).
Not only are the Bengals in an excellent spot vs. the Cardinals, but Cincinnati is at home, where Higgins has been far more productive this season—averaging 17.2 DraftKings PPG compared to 11.9 DraftKings PPG on the road.
Higgins has scored double-digit DraftKings points in all but one of his six home starts—including a season-best 36.1 DraftKings points vs. the Bears—and he is a strong, inexpensive way to gain a piece of the Bengals this weekend.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Hunter Henry ($4,500)
Many things are aligning for Henry, and he is slated for around 6% ownership on DraftKings, according to our projections. Henry is averaging 14.3 DraftKings PPG over his last four and is handling an 18.1% target share this season, including 19 red-zone targets, which ranks third among tight ends.
Kayshon Boutte (concussion) has been ruled out for the Patriots, which could result in some extra targets for Henry, and he is facing a lowly Jets defense that is yielding the seventh-most yards per pass over the last three weeks (7.5).
New England presents the second-highest implied team total on the slate (28 points), and this game is important for the Patriots, as the team is still alive for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. If New England wins its final two games and the Broncos lose to the Chargers next Sunday, the Patriots will claim the top seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs.
Henry carries the second-best odds to score a touchdown for New England at +120 on DraftKings Sportsbook, and his ceiling is the fourth-highest on the slate among tight ends in our projections.
Pictured: Saquon Barkley
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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