Sunday’s main slate for Week 10 features 10 games. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 10.
Specifically, I will be focusing on ownership projections and leverage scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify undervalued targets. Leverage scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Note: These leverage scores can also change as projected ownership and projections change throughout the weekend.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
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Bryce Young ($5,800) + Jalen Coker ($5,700) + Chris Olave ($7,000)
The Panthers and Saints are facing off in the Superdome in what should be a high-scoring affair between these fast-paced clubs. This season, Carolina and New Orleans are the top two teams in pace.
Most are going to attack this game by rostering Tyler Shough, who is expected to be one of the most-owned quarterbacks on the slate, if not the most-owned. Instead of following the crowd, I like directly pivoting to Young, who is going to be way less owned. Young’s recent game log looks bad, as he has scored less than 12 DraftKings points in two of his last three, but all three of the defenses he faced during this run rank in the top 10 in yards per pass allowed this season. Now, Young meets a Saints defense that is giving up the ninth-most yards per pass (7.8), and he should thrive in this spot.
The Panthers have been a pass-heavy offense this season, ranking fourth in PROE. As this unit’s quarterback, Young is averaging 7.1 YPA and has thrown 16 touchdowns to six picks. Young has produced 19+ DraftKings points in 5-of-8 games, peaking with 35.4 DraftKings points vs. the Bears.
Another spot to differentiate yourself in this game is pivoting off Tetairoa McMillan to Coker. While McMillan is a strong play, getting Coker at $1,000 less and with likely much less ownership is the route to go for tournaments. In the seven games these two have played together this season, Coker is producing 0.26 DraftKings points per snap, compared to 0.21 for McMillan. Coker is seeing a target on 20% of his routes, including nine targets over 20 yards and seven red-zone targets. Including the end of last season, Coker has scored 14+ DraftKings points in seven of his last 13, two of which have been outings over 30 DraftKings points.
As a bring-back, Olave is the right choice, even though he is going to be one of the most-owned players on the slate. Combining him with Young and Coker is going to be a very contrarian move because most will be pairing Olave with Shough.
Olave wasn’t affected by Jordyn Tyson making his season debut this past Sunday, with Olave leading the Saints with 12 targets and finishing with 16.8 DraftKings points vs. the Browns. The receiver is leading New Orleans with a 26.3% target share, and he is averaging 2.4 YPRR this season. Olave has seen seven red-zone targets and 17 targets over 20 yards, which ranks fourth in the NFL. Olave has topped 20 DraftKings points in 4-of-8 games, and he has a great chance to surpass that threshold in this matchup.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Breece Hall ($5,900)
After Braelon Allen played well with Hall (quad) sidelined, many speculated that this backfield would be an even timeshare going forward, but that wasn’t the case in Hall’s return this past Sunday. After missing five straight games, Hall out-touched Allen 18-10 vs. the Chiefs. In the red zone, Hall out-carried Allen 2-1.
Hall produced 87 scrimmage yards and 11.7 DraftKings points in his return. In his four games this season, Hall has been a strong fantasy producer, averaging 14.3 DraftKings PPG and scoring 0.39 DraftKings points per snap, which ranks 15th among all backs.
Hall is averaging 16.5 carries per game, and he has seen 10 red-zone attempts. In the passing game, Hall is running a route on just 31% of his team’s dropbacks, but he is commanding a target on 29% of his routes, and he is averaging 2.6 YPRR, both of which rank in the top eight among the backs who have run 30+ routes.
This Sunday, Hall is going against a Bills defense that is yielding the 10th-fewest yards per rush (3.9), but Buffalo has been susceptible to receiving backs, allowing the third-most catches (46) and receiving touchdowns to the position (three).
Hall has upside of 15-20 DraftKings points in this spot, and he is a great, low-owned tournament play at this $5,900 salary, which is the cheapest he has been on DraftKings in nearly a year. According to our projections, Hall is only expected to be around 8% owned.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
DJ Moore ($5,800)
Opposite of Hall, Moore is expected to be only around 6% owned according to our projections, and mini-game stacking Moore and Hall together is a tournament strategy that has great potential. New York has been getting torched through the air recently, and Moore has big upside in this spot.
Over the last three weeks, the Jets are giving up the fifth-most yards per pass (8.9), and they are tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed (seven). The Bills’ implied team total is tied for the highest on the slate (28.5 points), and in the four games Moore hasn’t exited with an injury this season, he has provided 24, 12.7, 17.6, and 6.6 DraftKings points.
Moore is garnering a target on 25%, and he is averaging 2.3 YPRR this season. The veteran has seen seven targets over 20 yards and five red-zone targets in only about five games of action. Moore’s $5,800 salary doesn’t reflect his role or production, and he is a very sneaky play this weekend.
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Tyler Higbee ($4,200)
The Rams are going to be extremely shorthanded on pass-catchers this Sunday vs. the Cardinals. Puka Nacua (knee/toe), Davante Adams (hamstring), and Terrance Ferguson (ankle/hamstring) are all out. There was speculation that Los Angeles would trade for a receiver, but the team didn’t make any moves at Tuesday’s deadline.
That leaves the Rams with a bad receiver corps of Konata Mumpfield, Tutu Atwell, and Jordan Whittington, and then Higbee and Colby Parkinson at tight end. It’s hard to have faith in any of those receivers, so one of those tight ends should step up and be Matthew Stafford’s main target. With Parkinson priced at only $3,000, most are expected to gravitate towards him, as he is expected to be one of the most-owned tight ends on the slate. Meanwhile, Higbee is only forecasted for around 4% ownership according to projections, and he is in a much better position to succeed, making him an elite leverage play.
Higbee has played ahead of Parkinson all season long and is going to see a higher route participation this Sunday. Higbee is running a route on 59% of his team’s dropbacks while Parkinson is running a route on just 37%. Higbee’s target share is also likely to be much higher than Parkinson’s. With both Nacua and Adams off the field this season, Higbee is seeing a target on a team-best 44% of his routes, and he is averaging 3.3 YPRR, both of which are tremendous numbers. Parkinson, on the other hand, is garnering a target on just 13% of his routes with both Nacua and Adams off the field, and he has yet to catch a pass in this situation.
Higbee is facing a Cardinals defense that is giving up the fourth-most yards per pass (8.0), and just this past Sunday, the lackluster AJ Barner exposed Arizona for a season-high 15 DraftKings points. With an expanded role, Higbee could easily have an even better performance this Sunday.
Pictured: Bryce Young
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
