Tuesday features a one-game showdown slate featuring the Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

If you’re new to single-game formats, be sure to check out the following pieces by Matt LaMarca:


Even if the place of Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s heritage didn’t rhyme with “freak,” it would be difficult to find a term that better describes the sensational things Milwaukee’s young superstar is able to do on the court. Even in a down game that saw him score just 12 points, commit eight turnovers and foul out, Giannis still pulled down 23 rebounds, dished seven assists and racked up four blocked shots. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings Showdown slates in six straight games, averaging a +16.24 Plus/Minus over that span, and our NBA Player Models have him as the clear-cut No. 1 player in terms of Projected Plus/Minus for Game 4.

Adding to the legend of Giannis is the fact that he’s able to overshadow Kawhi Leonard, who has surpassed his salary-implied fantasy point totals in all but two games since Tax Day, with one of the two failures coming by 0.01 — literally the smallest of margins. Kawhi is averaging a 27.3/8.0/3.5 line in 41.0 minutes across six regular and postseason games against the Bucks, also adding 2.5 steals and 0.7 blocks. He was also largely responsible for the decreased offensive output in Game 3 by Giannis, who is the only player he trails in Projected Plus/Minus for Game 4.

Toronto Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard (2) drives to the basket against the Orlando Magic during the first quarter at Amway Center.

Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard (2)


After a quiet start to the postseason, Marc Gasol has now hit value in four of his past six games, including 2-of-3 against the Bucks. Gasol is top five in Projected Plus/Minus and also leads all players in the game in Opponent Plus/Minus.

Khris Middleton has had a rough go offensively in this series, averaging just 10.7 points on 33.3% shooting. Of course, with the struggles have come a salary decrease of $1,800 since the series started, which is enough to earn Middleton the fourth-best Projected Plus/Minus among players priced $7,000 and up. Playing in Toronto shouldn’t be much of a hindrance for him, as his Consistency Rating this season is slightly better on the road (52%) than at home (51%) according to our NBA Trends tool.




Norman Powell has been getting more and more playing time in place of the struggling Danny Green. Powell played 10 minutes in Game 1, 25 in Game 2 and 30 in Game 3. While Green has struggled with his shot all postseason, Powell has shot 49.4% from the field and 44.7% from 3, upping those marks to 55.6% and 53.8%, respectively, in this series.

Ersan Ilyasova won’t be needed as much now that the Bucks are at full strength, but a salary drop from $3,400 in Game 3 to $2,000 ahead of Game 4 is enough to slot him in as a top-two value option. The Bucks are 22-1 straight-up and 19-4 against the spread (ATS) after a loss this season, which could also work in Ilyasova’s favor, as a Milwaukee blowout would likely lead to a few extra minutes more than the 17 we have him projected for tonight.

News Updates

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Pictured above: Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34)
Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports