The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden at Toronto Raptors – $9,600 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
What a start to the year it has been for James Harden. Harden looks rejuvenated like he is back in Houston. After four games, he is averaging nearly a triple-double with 26.8 points, 9.8 assists, and 8.5 rebounds per game. There has only been one game in which Harden shot less than 50% from the field. Playing Harden on FanDuel is tricky with his high salary, but he is the third-most expensive point guard on DraftKings and has a 97% Bargain Rating.
The 76ers are one-point road favorites on the road against the Raptors. With only a 216 total, this matchup will likely be a slugfest as both teams rank in the bottom five of Pace as the 76ers are playing the slowest in the league to start the season. Harden is basically matchup-proof, so don’t be intimidated by the Raptors, especially if one of their best wing defenders Scottie Barnes is out.
Prioritize Harden yet again on DraftKings tonight.
Top Value: Tre Jones at Minnesota Timberwolves – $5,500 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Despite his salary rising, Tre Jones still rates out as a very strong value point guard on both sites. Jones has played 30 or more minutes in three-straight games as he is taking this starting point guard role and running with it. He is averaging nearly 30 DraftKings points per game and may get more looks on offense if Devin Vassell, who is listed as doubtful, is unable to play tonight. Jones is still worth the rising salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Spurs are once again nearly double-digit underdogs on the road against the Timberwolves for the second-straight game. This is another homecoming matchup for Jones as he played his high school ball in Minnesota. Last game, the Spurs rolled the Timberwolves and were up as many as 30 points. Both teams ranked in the top six for Pace last season as this game should be another barnburner with a 232 projected total.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Orlando Magic – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
As long as Darius Garland remains out, which he is tonight, Donovan Mitchell will look like an incredible option playing as the Cavaliers’ point guard. Mitchell has been awesome in his first season with the Cavaliers. He is averaging career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and shooting percentages for the first three games. With 33.3 points per game, Mitchell is filling it up while gaining in each peripheral statistic. Tough to avoid that type of usage.
The Cavaliers get a home matchup against the very young Orlando Magic, as they are 8.5-point favorites. It is weird seeing such a high price on Mitchell, but he has averaged over a double digit Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel through three games. The Magic rank in the bottom three of Net Rating and have yet to win a game while allowing 115.5 points per game.
This is a great spot to go back to Mitchell, especially when he plays point guard.
Top Value: Josh Richardson at Minnesota Timberwolves – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Another Spurs value player worth targeting on this 10-game slate is Josh Richardson. With Vassell unlikely to play, there is a strong chance that Richardson will enter the starting lineup. Despite playing barely over 20 minutes a game, Richardson is averaging 11.8 points per game while shooting 50% from the field and 47.4% from behind the arc. He has been rumored as a trade target to the Lakers, but for now, he gets to showcase his talents with the Spurs.
Richardson has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the shooting guard position for DraftKings tonight. Priced at only $3,900 and projected to play over 30 minutes tonight, Richardson has an 88% Bargain Rating. Richardson has made a career-high 2.3 made 3-pointers per game, which sets him up perfectly in this matchup, as the Timberwolves are allowing a league-high 43.3 3-pointers attempted per game.
Bombs away for Richardson.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Denver Nuggets – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
LeBron James gets the nod over Kevin Durant on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our ceiling projections. It has been a rough start to the season for the Lakers, who have yet to win a game, but James is back to his old ways leading the team in points, rebounds, and assists. At 37 years old, James is still playing 36.7 minutes per game. He hasn’t shot the ball that well, but the volume remains high as the Lakers look to capture their first win tonight.
Playing in Denver is not the easiest place to play as the Lakers are six-point road underdogs implied for only 111.25 points. As long as James remains healthy, he is going to be one of the best players to target simply due to putting this team on his back each and every night. Last season James averaged over 30 points per game. He may need to get close to that yet again if the Lakers plan to have any success this season.
Top Value: Eric Gordon at Utah Jazz – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Can someone please find Eric Gordon a new home? At 33 years old, Gordon should not be playing on the Houston Rockets who are one of the youngest teams in the league. He is still playing 32 minutes a game and has averaged a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel while scoring double digits in every game to start the season. Gordon doesn’t do much besides score these days, but he can still get scorching hot from the perimeter.
This matchup against the Jazz is one of the best to target on the slate with a 233 projected total. The Rockets were second in Pace last season, while the Jazz are playing much faster with their new-look roster. Getting exposure to this game feels like a necessity, and leading it off with an aging Gordon feels wrong, but he is way too cheap for playing over 30 minutes in such a great game environment.
Target the veteran amongst the young bucks.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Brooklyn Nets – $11,200 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
The only player who has above a 70 projected ceiling on this slate is none other than Giannis Antetokounmpo. He is the most expensive player on both sites, but Giannis continues to dominate. Last game against the Rockets, Giannis scored 44 points, and grabbed 12 rebounds while shooting an absurd 17-for-21 from the field. This matchup will be a little tougher, but there is a reason his nickname is the Greek Freak.
Giannis has dominated the Nets not only in the regular season but also in the playoffs. In his last 14 games, including both game environments, Giannis is averaging 34.1 points per game. Similar to the Rockets and Jazz, this game is tied for the highest total on the slate at 233 points. Giannis may be expensive, but he is worth it. Only three games in, but the Nets have the worst Defensive Rating in the league this season.
Top Value: Kelly Olynyk vs. Houston Rockets – $5,600 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Back to the Jazz and Rockets game, we go with another veteran value play with Kelly Olynyk. On FanDuel, Olynyk has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate tonight. His price is a little higher on DraftKings, but he is still a strong value there as well. Olynyk is averaging a career-high 15.5 points per game while shooting 61.1% from the field and an absurd 78.6% from behind the arc, with 2.8 3-pointers made per game.
Playing against the Rockets over the past few seasons have been a fantasy goldmine. Last season they were second in Pace and last in Defensive Rating as they are trending in that direction again this season. They were also one of the worst rebounding teams in the league last season, and even though Olynyk isn’t rebounding that well, any little bit will help. Olynyk will likely be one of the highest-owned players again tonight, but it is very deserving.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $10,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid are neck and neck when it comes to ceiling projection on this slate. Jokic gets the slight edge in a matchup against the Lakers at home. Not only do the Lakers play at the highest Pace in the league, but they also have the league-worst Rebounding Percentage through the first three games. What a great spot to target Jokic, as the Nuggets are six-point home favorites against this Lakers defense.
It is hard to say that Jokic has had a slow start to the season when he is averaging 20.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 9.5 assists, but he has. The last game obviously brought his numbers way down as he was in foul trouble and only took four field goal attempts and didn’t get to double-digit points, rebounds, or assists, finishing at nine apiece. Expect a bounce-back from Jokic tonight in a matchup he should play freely in.
Top Value: Jakob Poeltl at Minnesota Timberwolves – $6,400 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Obviously, the Spurs are the value team to target as Jakob Poeltl rounds out our article as the best value center on the slate. Five of the top projected Plus/Minus players on DraftKings all come from this Spurs team as Poeltl is second behind Richardson for the highest value. With how well they played against this same Timberwolves team last game, this should not be a surprise seeing as their prices barely rose at all.
Through the first four games, Poeltl has been fantastic, averaging a double-double with 15.5 points and 10.8 rebounds for the first time in his career. Going up against newly acquired Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert is normally a tough spot, but Poeltl ended up with 14 points and 14 rebounds in their victory on Monday night.
The center position is absolutely loaded tonight, but Jokic and Poeltl seems to be the best pairing.
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