The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Ja Morant at Minnesota Timberwolves – $10,900 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander questionable with a hip injury, the clear-cut highest ceiling point guard option on this 13-game slate is Ja Morant. He is shooting a little worse from the field this year compared to last but is averaging a career-high 28.5 points per game. Morant also has increased both his rebounding and assist numbers and is coming off his fifth triple-double in his career with 27 points, 14 assists, and 10 rebounds.
Another boost to Morant’s upside tonight is playing without backcourt mate Desmond Bane. Using our On/Off Tool, Morant has a +2.6% usage rate and a +3.8 DraftKings Plus/Minus with Bane off the floor in 235 minutes this season. Dillon Brooks is also questionable with an injury, which would increase Morant’s production even more. The Timberwolves play at the third-fastest Pace in the league while allowing 116 points per game.
This slate is loaded with star power, but Morant makes the case for a great tournament option.
Top Value: Jaylen Nowell vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Staying in the same game, Jaylen Nowell is the top value at the point guard position coming off of back-to-back games of scoring over 15 points. Nowell will continue to come off the bench despite Karl-Anthony towns being out with an injury. He has seen a price increase on both DraftKings and FanDuel but is still a great value on this slate. Nowell leads the Timberwolves in usage rate this season with a career-high 27.3%.
The Grizzlies rank in the bottom 10 of Defensive Rating while allowing 114.3 points per game. Their defense is much worse than last season, making this an exploitable matchup for Nowell. Don’t read too much into the game log, as Nowell played 25 minutes last game but was on pace for over 30 if the Timberwolves kept it competitive. He posted 23 points in 25 minutes while shooting 69.2% from the field.
This is another great spot off the bench for a cheap Nowell.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Chicago Bulls – $10,000 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
The Phoenix Suns and, in particular, Devin Booker are really starting to cook. They have won five-straight games as Booker is coming off of a 44-point performance while shooting 67% from the field. His salary may be a sticker shock, but Booker is averaging a career-high 27.9 points on 21.1 field goal attempts per game. With Chris Paul out, Booker’s usage rate is at an all-time high, while he is also averaging career-highs in both rebounds and assists.
Favored by five points at home, the Suns have a league-best 11-1 home record, with their only loss coming to the Trail Blazers by two points in the second game of the season. Even though the Suns have played half of their games without Paul, they have the second-highest Offensive Rating (115.9) entering tonight’s games. That goes to show how well Booker is playing as the lead scorer and facilitator.
Like Morant, Booker may go under the radar tonight.
Top Value: Collin Sexton vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
After a scorching hot start, the Utah Jazz have fallen back down to earth as they have lost five-straight games and eight of their last 10. They will be playing without Mike Conley for the sixth-straight game, which will boost the production for Collin Sexton. Over the last four games with Conley out, Sexton is really starting to turn it on, averaging 16.8 points and 7.5 assists per game while shooting 59.5% from the field in over 30 minutes a night.
The Clippers are playing on a back-to-back as they came from behind to beat the Trail Blazers. They are still without their top two defenders in, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, so this matchup doesn’t look nearly as bad. The Jazz are seven-point home favorites, implied for 115.25 points. Prioritize Sexton on FanDuel, where he is cheaper and has averaged a +11.1 Plus/Minus over his last four games.
We have him projected to start and play 32 minutes.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Washington Wizards – $11,200 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Over the last three games, Kevin Durant has taken his game into an extra gear. He is averaging 37.3 points per game while shooting 61.3% from the field. Durant also has at least five rebounds and five assists in each game, as his peripherals will be locked in again tonight with Ben Simmons not able to play. In five games without Simmons this season, Durant is averaging 30.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, 6.6 assists, and 55.5 DraftKings points per game.
Durant tied his career-high last game with 19 made field goals as he poured in a season-high 45 points. The Wizards defense has been susceptible to the deep ball, and Durant has made three 3-pointers in three-straight games.In his lone game against the Wizards this season, Durant had a near triple-double with 28 points, 11 assists, and nine rebounds.
He is scoring at will, and tonight should be no different as his production increases without Simmons on the floor.
Top Value: Justice Winslow at Los Angeles Lakers – $4,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Justice Winslow was one of the best values last night, and we’re going right back to him again tonight. His salary stayed nearly the same as Winslow had a double-double with 10 points and 13 rebounds while posting a positive Plus/Minus in four-straight games. Winslow has continues his streak of attempting 10 field goals per game as Damian Lillard remains out. Over the last four games, Winslow is averaging 28.8 DraftKings points per game.
The Trail Blazers are 5.5-point road underdogs against the Lakers, who seem to be going in a positive direction and are finally fully healthy. The Lakers are playing at the league’s fastest Pace (103.43) entering tonight’s games, which will create plenty of scoring opportunities for the Trail Blazers. They are allowing a league-high 94.3 field goal attempts per game. For the second-straight day, Winslow looks like a great salary saver.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at New York Knicks – $12,400 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
The highest priced player with the biggest ceiling on this large slate in our Tournament Model is the Greek Freak – Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis is leading the league with a career-high 39.1% usage rate as the Bucks continue to play without All-Star forward Khris Middleton. Over the last five games, Giannis has made double-digit field goals in each game while averaging 33.2 points per game and shooting 58% from the field.
Priced at $12,000 or higher on both sites, Giannis needs to have another great game to pay off his steep price tag. Giannis has one triple-double this season, but his next closest was against the Knicks earlier this season, where he had 30 points, 14 rebounds, and nine assists. The Knicks rank 24th in Defensive Rating and are playing on a back-to-back.
There are plenty of studs to pay up for, but Giannis has the highest ceiling on the slate.
Top Value: Kyle Anderson vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Another Timberwolves value player worth getting exposure to is Kyle Anderson, who will likely start for Karl-Anthony Towns tonight. Anderson is projected to be the highest-owned player on both sites, while he is reaching nearly 45% on DraftKings. At $3,800, Anderson has a 91% Bargain Rating. In 11 of his last 12 games, Anderson has played 20 or more minutes, while our model has him projected for 30 tonight without Towns.
Playing so many minutes, Anderson will have plenty of opportunities to exceed value at such a cheap price tag. He likely won’t reach double-digit points, but Anderson can score fantasy points in a variety of ways by stuffing the stat sheet. The Timberwolves may play better without the Towns and Rudy Gobert lineup.
If Anderson reaches 30 minutes, he is going to be the best value on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Houston Rockets – $11,700 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
Deciding between Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid for the top center option is one of the tougher choices on this slate. Embiid benefits from playing without James Harden and Tyrese Maxey but has to go against one of the best defenses in the league, allowing the fourth-least amount of points per game in the paint. Meanwhile, Jokic gets a cupcake matchup against the Rockets, who rank 28th in Defensive Rating allowing 116.4 points per game.
It has been a couple of weeks since we have seen the Jokic triple-double, but this would be a great time to sprinkle one in as the Nuggets are double-digit favorites, implied for 121.5 points. Jokic has seen his production dip a little bit in the scoring and rebounding department, but he is shooting a career-best 62.3% from the field and averaging a career-high 8.8 assists per game.
He should absolutely feast in this matchup against the Rockets.
Top Value: Nic Claxton vs. Washington Wizards – $5,800 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
One of the biggest beneficiary players with Ben Simmons out tonight is Nic Claxton. He leads the slate on FanDuel and is second behind Anderson on DraftKings for the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate. Claxton is coming off of a season-high 36 minutes as he recorded his third double-double in his last four games. During that time, Claxton is averaging 13.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 3.3 blocks while playing 31.5 minutes per game.
In his fourth season with the Nets, Claxton is averaging career-highs across all statistics while shooting a ridiculous 73.4% from the field. The Wizards have been much better defensively this season, but they did allow 62 points in the paint in their most recent game. In his lone matchup against the Wizards, Claxton had 18 points on 9 of 10 shooting from the field while also pulling down nine rebounds — a great chance for another double-double for Claxton tonight.
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