The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Utah Jazz – $12,300 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
Easily the highest ceiling point guard option on this 10-game slate is Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic. With Jalen Brunson out of town, Doncic is having to do even more to keep this team afloat. He leads the league in both usage rate and scoring, averaging an absurd 36.7 points per game. Last game Doncic had only three rebounds and five assists, which was very rare for him. In his two previous, Doncic recorded back-to-back triple-doubles.
Playing against the Jazz is shockingly a tougher matchup despite losing center Rudy Gobert. They rank eighth in Defensive Rating this season. However, they have allowed the most points in the paint at 57.3 per game. That is significant for Doncic, who averages 19 points a game in the paint, which is second in the league to Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Ironically deciding between Doncic and Giannis will arguably be the biggest decision on this slate.
Top Value: Davion Mitchell at Miami Heat – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Starting off our value plays with Davion Mitchell, who has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings tonight. With De’Aaron Fox out for the Kings, Mitchell will slide into the starting lineup and is way too cheap across the industry. Last game, when Fox left early, Mitchell came in and played a season-high 31 minutes contributing with 23 points while shooting 9-for-11 from the field and 5-for-6 from behind the arc.
Playing against the Heat isn’t the best spot for an opposing offense, as they play at the fifth-slowest Pace and have such a strong defense. However, the cheap salary on both sites makes up for the tough spot and we have Mitchell projected for 35.1 minutes, which will be impossible to ignore on this slate. In 19 games without Fox last season, Mitchell averaged 17.7 points, 7.2 assists, and 33.3 DraftKings points per game.
We’ll gladly take a similar outcome at this price tag tonight.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Paul George at Houston Rockets – $9,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Playing in a home-and-home matchup, the Clippers had a late rally to beat the Rockets last game and now travel on the road to see if they can win two in a row. Paul George hit the game-tying and game-winning bucket on his way to a season-high 75.25 DraftKings points. He stuffed the stat sheet with 35 points, nine rebounds, eight assists, six steals, and two blocks while shooting 57.7% from the field and 50% from behind the arc.
It would shock me if George repeated that performance, but what a great matchup playing without Kawhi Leonard. Last season when Leonard was out for the whole season, George averaged a career-high 33.7% usage rate while shooting over 20 field goal attempts per game. The Rockets last season ranked last in Defensive Rating and second in Pace, and with them trending in a similar direction, this is a great fantasy environment for George.
Top Value: Ayo Dosunmu vs. Charlotte Hornets – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
One or both Ayo Dosunmu or Alex Caruso is going to be a strong value option for the Bulls backcourt. Dosunmu grades out better on both sites, so he gets the nod for this article as he is projected to play 32.1 minutes tonight with Zach LaVine out due to a back-to-back. Using our On/Off Tool, with LaVine and Lonzo Ball off the floor last season, Dosunmu had a +3.4 DraftKings Plus/Minus and played the second-most minutes behind DeMar DeRozan.
Despite LaVine being out, the Bulls are still five-point home favorites in a great matchup against the Hornets. Through 10 games, the Hornets rank 10th in Pace and 20th in points allowed per game. The Bulls rank 13th in Pace so this should be a relatively uptempo game with not a lot of defense being played. Even though this is a large 10-game slate, getting exposure to the Bulls tonight feels like a necessity without LaVine in the lineup.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $10,900 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
For the top ceiling small forward it is very close between LeBron James and Jayson Tatum. James has the slight edge, especially with Anthony Davis questionable to play tonight. The Lakers finally got their first win of the season as they brought Russell Westbrook off the bench with the second unit. That move freed up both James and Westbrook as James continues to lead the Lakers in scoring, assists, and usage rate this season.
It is weird seeing the Lakers as three-point home underdogs against the Pelicans, but it goes to show how bad they have looked this season and how deep the Pelicans are, even with a few injuries. This game is tied for the second-highest total on the slate at 227.5 points. Something about getting exposure to James with his back against the wall has always paid off.
If Davis is out, James moves into the category of one of the best plays on the slate.
Top Value: Patrick Williams vs. Charlotte Hornets – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Another Bulls value player that we can get exposure to is starting forward Patrick Williams. Outside of DeRozan, Williams saw the biggest increase in production and usage rate last season with LaVine on the bench. After a brutal start to the season, Williams finally woke up last game with 12 points and seven rebounds. It doesn’t sound like much, but it is when he has been averaging 7.8 rebounds and 2.6 rebounds per game while shooting 44.2% from the field.
Similar to the Lakers and Pelicans game, this total sits at 227.5 points, as the Bulls have a 116.25 implied total. Williams has played over 30 minutes in back-to-back games after not reaching that number in any game this season. We have him projected for 27 minutes tonight, and he is still looking very good.
He may not be a high-usage player, but Williams can get fantasy points in a variety of ways and is very cheap when we need to pay up for studs.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Detroit Pistons – $12,600 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
There are so many players in great spots tonight, but Giannis Antetokounmpo has the highest ceiling on both sites in our model. Giannis is second in points scored and rebounds per game this season as he continues to dominate with Khris Middleton out of the lineup. He is also shooting a career-high 58.9% from the field and gets a cupcake matchup against the Pistons, who rank 28th in Defensive Rating this season.
The Bucks are 11.5-point home favorites in this spot as they are the only remaining unbeaten team in the league with a 6-0 record. Normally in these types of situations, it wouldn’t surprise me if they sat Giannis, but with Middleton still out, that chance is diminished. He has only played 32 and 33 minutes the last two games and both were competitive.
Our model has Giannis projected for 35 minutes, and he is a fantastic play once again.
Top Value: Isaiah Stewart at Milwaukee Bucks – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
With the weather turning, who doesn’t love a little Beef Stew (Isaiah Stewart)? He has put together back-to-back double-doubles averaging 17.5 points and 12 rebounds per game. On the season, Stewart is averaging a double-double for the first time in his career and will get the benefit of playing without rookie center Jalen Duren yet again. Stewart has a positive DraftKings Plus/Minus in seven of his eight games this season.
Foul trouble is a slight concern whenever playing against Giannis, but if Stewart can keep his hands to himself, he should easily be able to pay off this price tag on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Stewart has also made at least one 3-pointer in six of his eight games this season, which adds to his projection. Look for another potential double-double out of Beef Stew tonight at this mid-range salary on both sites.
Center
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam at San Antonio Spurs – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Having Pascal Siakam as center-only eligible on DraftKings makes it a little tough, but with no top-tier center options on this slate, Siakam is the highest ceiling play. He is averaging a career-high 26.1 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 7.4 assists per game. Siakam also has a 30.6% usage rate and will benefit if Raptors point guard Fred Van Vleet is out tonight. Regardless, expect Siakam to play nearly 40 minutes and be a nice pay-up option.
Only 43.7% of Siakam’s points have been scored in the paint, but with the Spurs having allowed the second-most points in the paint this season, he could go on a scoring frenzy. Through seven games, Siakam has recorded five double-doubles, including one triple-double. Prioritize Siakam on FanDuel with his dual eligibility and 91% Bargain Rating. There are plenty of ways he can attack this mediocre Spurs defense.
Top Value: Mitchell Robinson vs. Atlanta Hawks – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Another value player who is going to crush his salary if he is able to stay out of foul trouble is center Mitchell Robinson. He has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel — this is a great day to pay down at center. Robinsons is also great on FanDuel with his block upside, as he is averaging 2.5 per game. If he can’t stay on the floor, then back up center Isaiah Hartenstein is worth a look, as he has shown major upside as well.
This value play comes down to foul trouble. In the last two games, Robinson finished with five fouls and only played 20 minutes. However, in the previous game, he played a season-high 37 minutes and went bananas. The Hawks rank 21st in points allowed in the paint, while Robison is shooting 67.9% from the field. They also rank 21st in blocks allowed this season, so this could be an explosion spot for Robinson if he stays out of foul trouble.
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