The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Brooklyn Nets – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Trae Young is the most expensive point guard by far on both sites. However, he suffered a calf injury last night but is hoping to play tonight. Make sure to monitor our news dashboard on Young’s status the closer we get to lock. Young still played 34 minutes last night and posted his third double-double in his last four games. However, he failed to reach over 53 DraftKings points for the first time during that stretch.
The Hawks have lost 10 of their last 16 games as Clint Capela likely remains out for this game against the Nets, who have won nine-straight games. This game has the highest total on the slate at 236.5 points, as the Hawks are six-point road underdogs. If, for some reason, Young is unable to play tonight, the easy pivot is to Dejounte Murray, who is way too cheap across the industry at $8,500 on DraftKings and $8,400 on FanDuel.
Top Value: Monte Morris vs. Phoenix Suns – $4,800 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Despite playing 30 or more minutes in his last four games and averaging 24 DraftKings points per game during that time, Monte Morris has seen his DraftKings salary continue to decrease all the way down to $4,800. The Wizards are fully healthy, but Morris is starting and still playing a ton of minutes to be a solid value option. We have Morris projected to play 32 minutes tonight against the Suns. Morris has a solid 91% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
From a value point guard perspective, Morris has the highest Projected Plus/Minus among the cheaper options. He is a value play who can stuff the stat sheet in a variety of ways, from his scoring to passing and even capturing steals. Morris has three steals in two of his last four games. The Suns have an aging Chris Paul defending, as their Defensive Rating has fallen off over the past year.
Morris is a cheap way to get exposure to the Wizards, who are a slight home underdog.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at New Orleans Pelicans – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
Though his salary is rising, Anthony Edwards has shown a massive ceiling as the Timberwolves continue to play without Karl-Anthony Towns. Using our On/Off Tool, Edwards has a team-high +1.8% usage rate and a +2 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 656 minutes with Towns off the floor this season. Over the last five games, Edwards is averaging 29.2 points, 7.2 assists, 7.2 rebounds, and 54.5 DraftKings points per game while shooting 51.4% from the field.
The Timberwolves have lost three-straight games as they are seven-point road underdogs against the Pelicans tonight. Edwards is a perfect ceiling candidate as he has a 31.8% usage rate while attempting 21.4 field goal attempts per game over his last five games. Even in a very difficult matchup where the Pelicans rank fifth in Defensive Rating, getting exposure to the ceiling of Edwards in tournaments is a fantastic decision on this slate.
Top Value: Alec Burks at Memphis Grizzlies – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Alec Burks is the perfect boom-or-bust tournament play, as his minutes and production range from single-digit DraftKings points to over 30 points, like in his last game. With Cade Cunningham out for the year, the Pistons are running a trio of guards with Burks, Jaden Ivey, and Killian Hayes. Burks is by far the cheapest of the bunch and still has a very similar upside. Prioritize Burks on DraftKings where he has a 96% Bargain Rating at $3,800.
Burks has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the guard position on DraftKings tonight. However, on FanDuel, it looks like Malik Monk is the obvious pivot at $4,600. The Pistons and Magic have two of the worst records in the league. Both teams rank 25th and lower in Defensive Rating, so this could be a very sloppy game. Burks is a cheap way on DraftKings to get exposure to this game and provide the value to pay up for the studs of the slate.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Orlando Magic – $10,300 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
LeBron James finally broke his seven-game streak of scoring 30 or more points last night as he poured in 28 points as the Lakers finally got back in the win column. Despite the streak breaking, James did continue his streak of shooting 50% or better from the field to eight-straight games. During that stretch, James is averaging an impressive 13.1 field goal makes per game, despite shooting 22.9% from behind the arc. He has missed 11 3-pointers in the last two games.
Last night James only played 31 minutes as the Lakers won by 19 points. Tonight should be much more competitive, but keep an eye on the status of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo for the Heat. Regardless if they are playing or not, James looks like a strong pay-up option, as his salary dropped $300 on DraftKings and $100 on FanDuel since last night. With that said, James remains a much better play on DraftKings, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Pat Connaughton at Chicago Bulls – $4,000 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
One of the best value plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel comes at the small forward position with Pat Connaughton. He is coming off of a great Christmas Day game where he poured in four 3-pointers while scoring 15 points and 28.5 DraftKings points. That was his first start of the season, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he hung on to that role, at least until Khris Middleton returned. Connaughton is projected to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
Joe Ingles is back for the Bucks but hasn’t cut into too much of the playing time for Connaughton. We have Connaughton projected to play 29 minutes tonight, as he looks way too cheap at $4,000 and under on both sites. The Bulls are allowing opponents to shoot 38% from behind the arc, which is the second-highest in the league. With 73% of his field goal attempts coming from downtown, Connaughton has a chance for a big game at a cheap price tag.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Chicago Bulls – $11,500 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
After three-straight huge double-doubles, Giannis Antetokounmpo struggled on Christmas Day as he barely had 40 DraftKings points against a very tough Celtics defense. The Bulls present an easier test as they rank 23rd in Rebounding Percentage and 19th in Defensive Rating this season. Giannis had two 40-point double-doubles in his last four games, so we know the ceiling remains high, especially with Khris Middleton still out of the lineup.
It feels like the Bucks are on the road in every game recently. This is their 10th road game in their last 13 games. They are still 4.5-point road favorites against the Bulls, who just lost at home to the Rockets by 15 points. The Bulls allowed 60 points in the paint in their last game, which doesn’t bode well with Giannis coming to town. He may continue to go over-looked due to his high salary and boom or bust tendencies this season, but Giannis has the ceiling to break any slate.
Top Value: Patrick Williams vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $4,600 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
After recommending back-to-back Bucks players, let’s flip it over to the Bulls side of this game with value power forward Patrick Williams. He has scored double-digit points in eight of his last 11 games as he is averaging a +4.6 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a +5.3 FanDuel Plus/Minus during that time. Not only is he finally scoring the ball well, but he is also capturing steals and blocks and pulling down 7-8 rebounds per game over his last three games.
Williams will need to play a plethora of minutes helping out defensively on Giannis. For someone who struggled to find the minutes early in the season, Williams has averaged 38 minutes per game over his last three games. Playing alongside the usage hog trio of DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic, Williams may get some looks from the perimeter. He has cashed in on at least one 3-pointer in 11 of his last 12 games while averaging 1.5 made 3-pointers per game over that span.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Sacramento Kings – $11,700 DraftKings, $12,300 FanDuel
We’re going right back to the Nikola Jokic play in the same matchup as last night. Jokic finished with another near triple-double as he had 20 points, 11 assists, and nine rebounds. Domantas Sabonis sat out due to injury, and his status for tonight remains unclear. Regardless if Sabonis is in for the Kings or not, Jokic is deserving of the highest salary on the slate, as he also has the highest ceiling in our projections.
Obviously, Luka Doncic stole the show last night with his 110 DraftKings point performance, but with no Doncic on this slate, Jokic will likely be the pay-up option that is needed. The Kings are still allowing the third-most points per game in the paint this season. Jokic shot 7 of 10 from the field last night, which was by far his lowest field goal attempts in nearly a month. Expect Jokic to bounce back, capture that triple-double, and be the best pay-up play on the slate.
Top Value: Jalen Duren vs. Orlando Magic – $5,100 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Picking just one value center is not an easy task on this slate. There are three centers priced around the same range on both sites. Those would be Onyeka Okongwu, Jalen Duren, and Thomas Bryant. If Bam Adebayo plays, it will be tough to get to Bryant. We can assume Clint Capela is out, but Okongwu has been in foul trouble the last two games. We’ll go with the rookie Duren who will be playing without Marvin Bagley yet again and is coming off of a season-high 39 minutes last game. The Magic have also allowed way more points in the paint than the Heat and Nets this season.
On FanDuel, the center decision is nearly impossible, with these three and Jokic all being center-only eligible. However, on DraftKings, where two centers can be played, Duren is the cheapest of the trio and has the highest projected Plus/Minus. Duren has shown massive rebounding upside as he has double-digit rebounds in eight of his last 10 games. It is difficult to differentiate between these three value centers, but Duren looks the best, especially on DraftKings.
Get $100 Sign-up Bonus!
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
NBA DFS: 5 Rules for Attacking the DraftKings NBA Showdown Format
NBA DFS (Thursday, Nov. 3): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
NBA DFS (Friday, Nov. 25): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Dec. 14): Is Jordan Poole a Must-Play?
