DraftKings’ main slate for Wednesday includes the first six games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyler Herro at Chicago Bulls – $9,400
The Heat and Bulls have the same record and likely are going to face each other in the Play-In Tournament next week. The Bulls own the tiebreaker between the two clubs, but Miami still has a chance of finishing ahead of Chicago, which would give the Heat home court over the Bulls in that first Play-In game. Beating Chicago tonight would go a long way for Miami in their quest to finish with the higher seed, and Herro should see huge minutes in this tight 1.5-point spread.
In his last eight starts, Herro has scored at least 45 DraftKings points seven times, and he has topped 50 DraftKings points twice. Herro is leading Miami with a 28.7% usage rate since the All-Star Break, and this is an elite spot, as the Bulls lead the league in pace since the All-Star Break, and they are playing their second game in two nights. Herro is amassing 44.8 DraftKings PPG in two matchups with Chicago this season, and he is one of the most lucrative targets tonight in this crucial tilt.
Top Value: Collin Sexton vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $6,200
Sexton has been great with 39.75 and 42.75 DraftKings points in his last two starts, and he should have another strong outing tonight vs. the Trail Blazers. The Jazz have been without Lauri Markkanen (knee), John Collins (ankle), Jordan Clarkson (foot), and Walker Kessler (nose) for these past two games, and all these players will remain out tonight. This will be the seventh game Sexton has played with those four players inactive this season, and in the first six, he is averaging a team-high 38.3 DraftKings PPG with a 27.9% usage rate.
Portland has been eliminated from the Play-In Tournament, so their defense should be weaker than usual tonight, and Utah has been the worst defense in the NBA this season. This game carries the highest total on the slate (229.5 points), and Sexton is an awesome combination of safety and upside in this setting.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shaedon Sharpe at Utah Jazz – $8,300
Deni Avdija (thumb) and Anfernee Simons (forearm) are both questionable, and at least one of these starters sitting tonight feels inevitable, with the Trail Blazers out of the race for the Play-In Tournament. If that is the case, Sharpe will see a huge role and be an excellent spend against the Jazz, who rank dead last in defensive rating.
With at least one of Simons or Avdija out for the last four, Sharpe is generating 46.7 DraftKings in 35.5 minutes per game with an elite 29.4% usage rate. Even with both Simons and Avdija active, Sharpe went off for 44.25 DraftKings points against the Jazz back in December.
Top Value: Johnny Juzang vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $4,300
Continuing with this slate-high total between the Trail Blazers and Jazz, Juzang is a strong punt play. The third-year player has started in back-to-back games with Utah understaffed, and Juzang has scored 22.25 and 29 DraftKings points with the first unit.
During this span, the wing is leading the Jazz with 35.5 minutes per game, and he is handling a solid 17.8% usage rate. With Markkanen, Collins, Clarkson, and Kessler off the floor since the All-Star break, Juzang is amassing 0.9 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. In this potential shootout with Portland, Juzang should score a minimum of 25 DraftKings points.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Coby White vs. Miami Heat – $9,000
After being rested last night, White will return for tonight’s pivotal matchup with the Heat. As noted above, these clubs have the same record, and both teams are looking to improve their seed ahead of the Play-In Tournament. White has been awesome since the All-Star break, scoring 40 DraftKings PPG with a 27.5% usage rate, and while this is a tough matchup with Miami ranking ninth in defensive rating, White should see huge minutes given the circumstances, out trumping any matchup concerns we should have.
Near 40 minutes is a fair expectation with the Heat only favored by 1.5 points, and White is one of the better high-end options on the slate in this situation. For the last five occasions the guard has competed in a spread under five points, White is producing 44.4 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Lonnie Walker at Washington Wizards – $5,700
If Justin Edwards (questionable, ribs) misses his second straight game, which feels likely for this 76ers team that wants to lose, Walker will be unlocked as one of the top plays on the slate. With Edwards essentially unavailable for the last two – he got hurt 10 minutes into the 76ers’ second-to-last game – Walker has scored 32.75 and 35.25 DraftKings points.
During this two-game stretch, Walker is leading the team with 38.5 minutes per game, and he is handling a 20% usage rate. Walker has a team option for next season, so proving his worth to the 76ers organization is crucial in these last few games of the regular season, and this is an excellent spot for him, with the Wizards ranking fourth in pace and 28th in defensive rating this season. In this appealing matchup, Walker has a ceiling of over 40 DraftKings points in our ShotQuality projections.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero vs. Boston Celtics – $10,000
The Magic can clinch the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference with a win over the Celtics tonight, and Banchero is an outstanding high-end option with so much at stake. Being the No. 7 seed is important, as this team will have home court throughout the Play-In Tournament, and with every game crucial for the Magic as of late, Banchero has been a stud, with over 50 DraftKings points in five of his last 10, most notably with a 70.5 DraftKings point outing vs. the Wizards.
Banchero ranks second in the league in usage rate since the All-Star break (34%), and this should be a much easier matchup than usual against Boston. The Celtics have nothing at stake as they are locked into the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, and they will likely rest many key players, especially with this being their second game in two nights after they beat the Knicks in overtime Tuesday. Banchero has given the Celtics fits in the past, and his ceiling for tonight ranks second only to Luka Doncic in our ShotQuality projections.
Top Value: Justin Champagnie vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $5,400
Champagnie has been one of the main beneficiaries of the tanking Wizards. In their last two games, the forward has scored 38.25 and 39.75 DraftKings points while logging 36 minutes per game. There is no reason to think that this huge volume will stop tonight, and this is a beautiful spot vs. the 76ers, who rank dead last in defensive rating since the All-Star break.
Champagnie is averaging 31.8 DraftKings PPG for the last five times he has received at least 25 minutes, and he is underpriced for his expected workload.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyle Filipowski vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $7,300
Filipowski has merit for GPPs with the Jazz so shorthanded in their frontcourt. With Markkanen, Collins, Clarkson, and Kessler inactive this season, Filipowski is amassing 32.3 DraftKings points in 26.6 minutes per game with a 20% usage rate as Utah’s primary big man.
The rookie posted a career-high 49.75 DraftKings points against the Trail Blazers in late February, and he has 40 DraftKings-point upside again tonight.
Top Value: Adem Bona at Washington Wizards – $5,700
Bona is the best value on the slate at this price tag, which continues to be too low for his current role as the 76ers’ starting center. Since earning this job six games ago, Bona is supplying 34.6 DraftKings points in 30 minutes per game, including three double-doubles.
As a member of Philadelphia’s starting five, Bona is handling an 18.2% usage rate and a large 35% rebound percentage. The rookie is generating 1.1 DraftKings PPM since the All-Star Break, and he should cruise past five-times value in this elite spot for centers. On top of ranking fourth in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency, Washington is giving up the most rebounds and the sixth-most points in the paint this season.
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