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NBA DFS (Tuesday, Oct. 25): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.

Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.

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Point Guard

Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at New Orleans Pelicans – $11,100 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel

Let’s start this article off with arguably the toughest decision on the slate. Luka Doncic or Stephen Curry? They are by far the most expensive options on this four-game slate. We’ll go with Doncic, who has the highest ceiling for both DraftKings and FanDuel by over double digits in our projections. After leading the league in usage rate last season, Doncic has picked up right where he left off with a 39.7% usage rate through two games.

With all of the Thunder and Clippers value tonight, paying up for Doncic shouldn’t be a problem. Even in a 41-point blowout against the Grizzlies in the Mavericks’ last game, where Doncic only played 30 minutes, he still reached over 60 DraftKings points due to a near triple-double with 32 points, 10 assists, and seven rebounds.

The Mavericks are 4.5-point road favorites, as Doncic is the best player on this short slate tonight.


Top Value: Tre Mann vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $5,500 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel

With Thunder guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey out for tonight, Tre Mann will move into the starting lineup and be the best value point guard on the slate. His salary came up, but not nearly enough being the main facilitator for the Thunder. Using our On/Off Tool, Mann led the Thunder with a +5.7% usage rate last season in 409 minutes when Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey were off the floor.

The Clippers are a very stout defensive team, but with so many injuries on their side, this game could turn into a mini G-League contest. Prioritize Mann on FanDuel, where his cheap salary results in a 92% Bargain Rating. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of the first three games while scoring double digits and shooting over 10 field goal attempts in every game. One of the many great value pieces we’ll use to fit in Doncic.

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Shooting Guard

Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Golden State Warriors – $9,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel

Devin Booker has been consistent as they come to start the season. Through three games, Booker has scored between 45 and 48 DraftKings points in each game while shooting a scorching hot 53.1% from the field and 52.9% from behind the arc. He leads the league playing 39.7 minutes per game and is scoring 32 points a night. It is weird seeing Booker as the third-most expensive player on the slate, but that goes to show our lack of stud options.

Booker has had his fair share of struggles in this matchup against the Warriors throughout his career, but this game features the highest total on the slate at 225.5 points, with the Suns being 2.5-point home favorites. Getting exposure to this late-night hammer feels like a necessity on this short slate. When it comes down to the battle of the guards between Curry or Booker, our model suggests that Booker is the much better value play tonight.


Top Value: Luke Kennard at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,200 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel

Quite possibly the cheapest value play we have confident rostering is Clippers guard Luke Kennard. With Paul George and Marcus Morris out tonight and Kawhi Leonard still working his way back into the rotation, Kennard will likely see an uptick in shooting volume. Using our On/Off Tool, Kennard ranks in the top four of Clippers players who will get a usage rate bump as well as a DraftKings Plus/Minus bump with George and Morris off the floor.

Last season the Thunder had a bottom-five Net Rating, and with their two starting point guards not playing, this game could get ugly. The Clippers are nearly 10-point road favorites with a 112 implied total despite this game total being only 214.5 points. We have Kennard projected for 28 minutes, which is more than enough time to pay off this cheap salary. He is shooting a career-high 50% from downtown, and he is always a threat to get hot.

Small Forward

Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard at Oklahoma City Thunder – $8,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel

When it comes to Kawhi Leonard, it is all about how many minutes his body can handle. Leonard didn’t play the entire first quarter last game, as he only took six field goal attempts. He has played only 21 minutes in back-to-back games, which won’t cut it at this salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, regardless of the matchup. Our model has Leonard projected for a lofty 27 minutes, which makes him a great play without George in the lineup.

This dates back to the 2020-2021 season, but in nine games without George on the floor, Leonard averaged 27.9 points while shooting over 20 field goal attempts per game. His usage rate jumped to 32.5%, which is much better than his 26.9% through the first two games of this season. Make sure to keep an eye out for any news regarding an uptick in minutes for Leonard tonight because if he plays anywhere near 30, he is a fantastic play.


Top Value: Norman Powell at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,800 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel

Sticking with the Clippers the player with the highest projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel is forward Norman Powell. Through three games thus far, Powell has really struggled shooting the ball at 25.9% from the field and 14.3% from behind the arc, scoring a very low seven points per game. Powell’s usage rate is 24.7%, which is pretty high he just can’t get jumpers to fall. Let’s hope shots start to fall tonight.

Last season, Powell led the Clippers with a +4.5% usage rate when George and Morris were off the floor. That doesn’t tell the full story, as Leonard obviously wasn’t playing all of last season, but he will have the ball in his hands a lot tonight in an incredible matchup against the Thunder. Powell is projected for high ownership, but he is impossible to avoid with his cheap salary across the industry and being in such a high usage spot.

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Power Forward

Top Ceiling: Kyle Kuzma vs. Detroit Pistons – $6,900 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel

With Pelicans star Zion Williamson questionable, the power forward position looks incredibly thin on this four-game slate. We will dip down to Kyle Kuzma, who has been solid to start the season for the Wizards. Kuzma is averaging a career-high 19.7 points per game through the first three games, shooting 40% from behind the arc. His rebounding has continued to be high despite the Wizards being fully healthy.

The Wizards have the second-highest implied total on the slate at 113.5 points in their home matchup against the Pistons. After being one of the worst defensive teams in the league last season, the Pistons once again rank 25th in Defensive Rating to start this season. Their pace has increased, which makes them a strong opponent to go against. Kuzma can always threaten with a double-double, which makes him a strong tournament play.


Top Value: Draymond Green at Phoenix Suns – $5,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel

It is tough for any Warriors player to make this article because they have such a deep rotation with so much high-level talent. With so much talent, the minutes across the board are down, which will help their longevity but makes them tough to play each and every night. Draymond Green still comes in as the best power forward value on both DraftKings and FanDuel as we all know his upside with getting so many peripherals each and every night.

In his last five games against the Suns, Green is averaging 8.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, 8.4 assists, three steals, and two blocks per game. A typical stat-stuffing line for Draymond Green. Something about playing against great opponents brings out the best in Green, which makes him a strong play tonight. Rostering Green may be tough on the eyes when he is missing layups and air-balling 3-pointers, but he also has the potential to rack up so many peripherals that his scoring doesn’t matter.

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Center

Top Ceiling: Kristaps Porzingis vs. Detroit Pistons – $7,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel

Kristaps Porzingis is another Wizards big man worth targeting against the Pistons’ frontcourt. He has two double-doubles in the three games so far while averaging 14.3 field goal attempts per game. Minutes are always a slight concern when rostering Porzingis, who has had his fair share of injuries, but he did play 38 last game. Porzingis would look much better in our model if he played 38 again tonight, as we only have him projected for 32 minutes, and he is still grading out well.

The Pistons adding some girth to their frontcourt with rookie Jalen Duren. He has looked strong in the middle, and they need him to play well, seeing as the Pistons ranked dead last in Rebounding Percentage last season. Duren and the Pistons will have their work cut out for them guarding the versatile Porzingis who can stretch the floor and put the ball on the deck.

He has another great chance at another double-double performance tonight.


Top Value: Deandre Ayton vs. Golden State Warriors – $6,700 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel

Not much of a value play, but it is hard to ignore Deandre Ayton at these prices across the industry. On DraftKings, Ayton has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate for centers by a comfortable margin. Ayton has been a little disappointing from a rebounding aspect to start the season, but he is averaging a career-high 19 points per game. He has averaged a double-double for four-straight seasons, so expect those rebounding numbers to rise.

In his most recent game against the Warriors, Ayton had 16 points and 16 rebounds, so we know he can dominate this matchup where the Warriors like to go small at center. With the Suns we know where the volume is going – Ayton and Booker. Chris Paul continues to be a non-factor in the scoring department but prides himself in his facilitating. Ayton is another late-night hammer piece worth considering on this short slate.

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The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.

Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Point Guard

Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at New Orleans Pelicans – $11,100 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel

Let’s start this article off with arguably the toughest decision on the slate. Luka Doncic or Stephen Curry? They are by far the most expensive options on this four-game slate. We’ll go with Doncic, who has the highest ceiling for both DraftKings and FanDuel by over double digits in our projections. After leading the league in usage rate last season, Doncic has picked up right where he left off with a 39.7% usage rate through two games.

With all of the Thunder and Clippers value tonight, paying up for Doncic shouldn’t be a problem. Even in a 41-point blowout against the Grizzlies in the Mavericks’ last game, where Doncic only played 30 minutes, he still reached over 60 DraftKings points due to a near triple-double with 32 points, 10 assists, and seven rebounds.

The Mavericks are 4.5-point road favorites, as Doncic is the best player on this short slate tonight.


Top Value: Tre Mann vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $5,500 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel

With Thunder guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey out for tonight, Tre Mann will move into the starting lineup and be the best value point guard on the slate. His salary came up, but not nearly enough being the main facilitator for the Thunder. Using our On/Off Tool, Mann led the Thunder with a +5.7% usage rate last season in 409 minutes when Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey were off the floor.

The Clippers are a very stout defensive team, but with so many injuries on their side, this game could turn into a mini G-League contest. Prioritize Mann on FanDuel, where his cheap salary results in a 92% Bargain Rating. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of the first three games while scoring double digits and shooting over 10 field goal attempts in every game. One of the many great value pieces we’ll use to fit in Doncic.

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Shooting Guard

Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Golden State Warriors – $9,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel

Devin Booker has been consistent as they come to start the season. Through three games, Booker has scored between 45 and 48 DraftKings points in each game while shooting a scorching hot 53.1% from the field and 52.9% from behind the arc. He leads the league playing 39.7 minutes per game and is scoring 32 points a night. It is weird seeing Booker as the third-most expensive player on the slate, but that goes to show our lack of stud options.

Booker has had his fair share of struggles in this matchup against the Warriors throughout his career, but this game features the highest total on the slate at 225.5 points, with the Suns being 2.5-point home favorites. Getting exposure to this late-night hammer feels like a necessity on this short slate. When it comes down to the battle of the guards between Curry or Booker, our model suggests that Booker is the much better value play tonight.


Top Value: Luke Kennard at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,200 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel

Quite possibly the cheapest value play we have confident rostering is Clippers guard Luke Kennard. With Paul George and Marcus Morris out tonight and Kawhi Leonard still working his way back into the rotation, Kennard will likely see an uptick in shooting volume. Using our On/Off Tool, Kennard ranks in the top four of Clippers players who will get a usage rate bump as well as a DraftKings Plus/Minus bump with George and Morris off the floor.

Last season the Thunder had a bottom-five Net Rating, and with their two starting point guards not playing, this game could get ugly. The Clippers are nearly 10-point road favorites with a 112 implied total despite this game total being only 214.5 points. We have Kennard projected for 28 minutes, which is more than enough time to pay off this cheap salary. He is shooting a career-high 50% from downtown, and he is always a threat to get hot.

Small Forward

Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard at Oklahoma City Thunder – $8,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel

When it comes to Kawhi Leonard, it is all about how many minutes his body can handle. Leonard didn’t play the entire first quarter last game, as he only took six field goal attempts. He has played only 21 minutes in back-to-back games, which won’t cut it at this salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, regardless of the matchup. Our model has Leonard projected for a lofty 27 minutes, which makes him a great play without George in the lineup.

This dates back to the 2020-2021 season, but in nine games without George on the floor, Leonard averaged 27.9 points while shooting over 20 field goal attempts per game. His usage rate jumped to 32.5%, which is much better than his 26.9% through the first two games of this season. Make sure to keep an eye out for any news regarding an uptick in minutes for Leonard tonight because if he plays anywhere near 30, he is a fantastic play.


Top Value: Norman Powell at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,800 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel

Sticking with the Clippers the player with the highest projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel is forward Norman Powell. Through three games thus far, Powell has really struggled shooting the ball at 25.9% from the field and 14.3% from behind the arc, scoring a very low seven points per game. Powell’s usage rate is 24.7%, which is pretty high he just can’t get jumpers to fall. Let’s hope shots start to fall tonight.

Last season, Powell led the Clippers with a +4.5% usage rate when George and Morris were off the floor. That doesn’t tell the full story, as Leonard obviously wasn’t playing all of last season, but he will have the ball in his hands a lot tonight in an incredible matchup against the Thunder. Powell is projected for high ownership, but he is impossible to avoid with his cheap salary across the industry and being in such a high usage spot.

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Power Forward

Top Ceiling: Kyle Kuzma vs. Detroit Pistons – $6,900 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel

With Pelicans star Zion Williamson questionable, the power forward position looks incredibly thin on this four-game slate. We will dip down to Kyle Kuzma, who has been solid to start the season for the Wizards. Kuzma is averaging a career-high 19.7 points per game through the first three games, shooting 40% from behind the arc. His rebounding has continued to be high despite the Wizards being fully healthy.

The Wizards have the second-highest implied total on the slate at 113.5 points in their home matchup against the Pistons. After being one of the worst defensive teams in the league last season, the Pistons once again rank 25th in Defensive Rating to start this season. Their pace has increased, which makes them a strong opponent to go against. Kuzma can always threaten with a double-double, which makes him a strong tournament play.


Top Value: Draymond Green at Phoenix Suns – $5,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel

It is tough for any Warriors player to make this article because they have such a deep rotation with so much high-level talent. With so much talent, the minutes across the board are down, which will help their longevity but makes them tough to play each and every night. Draymond Green still comes in as the best power forward value on both DraftKings and FanDuel as we all know his upside with getting so many peripherals each and every night.

In his last five games against the Suns, Green is averaging 8.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, 8.4 assists, three steals, and two blocks per game. A typical stat-stuffing line for Draymond Green. Something about playing against great opponents brings out the best in Green, which makes him a strong play tonight. Rostering Green may be tough on the eyes when he is missing layups and air-balling 3-pointers, but he also has the potential to rack up so many peripherals that his scoring doesn’t matter.

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Center

Top Ceiling: Kristaps Porzingis vs. Detroit Pistons – $7,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel

Kristaps Porzingis is another Wizards big man worth targeting against the Pistons’ frontcourt. He has two double-doubles in the three games so far while averaging 14.3 field goal attempts per game. Minutes are always a slight concern when rostering Porzingis, who has had his fair share of injuries, but he did play 38 last game. Porzingis would look much better in our model if he played 38 again tonight, as we only have him projected for 32 minutes, and he is still grading out well.

The Pistons adding some girth to their frontcourt with rookie Jalen Duren. He has looked strong in the middle, and they need him to play well, seeing as the Pistons ranked dead last in Rebounding Percentage last season. Duren and the Pistons will have their work cut out for them guarding the versatile Porzingis who can stretch the floor and put the ball on the deck.

He has another great chance at another double-double performance tonight.


Top Value: Deandre Ayton vs. Golden State Warriors – $6,700 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel

Not much of a value play, but it is hard to ignore Deandre Ayton at these prices across the industry. On DraftKings, Ayton has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate for centers by a comfortable margin. Ayton has been a little disappointing from a rebounding aspect to start the season, but he is averaging a career-high 19 points per game. He has averaged a double-double for four-straight seasons, so expect those rebounding numbers to rise.

In his most recent game against the Warriors, Ayton had 16 points and 16 rebounds, so we know he can dominate this matchup where the Warriors like to go small at center. With the Suns we know where the volume is going – Ayton and Booker. Chris Paul continues to be a non-factor in the scoring department but prides himself in his facilitating. Ayton is another late-night hammer piece worth considering on this short slate.

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About the Author

Tyler Schmidt writes NBA, NFL, and MLB content for FantasyLabs and Action Network. He has a degree in Management Information Systems and minor in Computer Science. Tyler has been playing DFS for over a decade and writing content as a freelancer for the past five years. He is a former collegiate basketball player who still holds the Minnesota State High School record for consecutive free throws with 72 that he set in 2009. Schmidt's strong knowledge of the game allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports.