The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Trae Young at Charlotte Hornets – $9,800 DraftKings
Four of the top six players leading this four-game slate in projected ceiling are point guards. This position is loaded at the top end, and it all starts with this matchup between the Hornets and Hawks. Both LaMelo Ball and Trae Young rank second and third in projected ceiling and look like elite pay-up options tonight. The latter gets the slight edge due to his recent play and overall consistency over the last couple of weeks.
The Hawks are 6.5-point favorites and have the highest implied team total on the slate at 121.75 points. They rank second in pace this season and are averaging the fifth-most points at 117.1 per game. Young is averaging a double-double with 24 points and a career and league-high 11.5 assists per game. He also leads all non-big men with 40 double-doubles this season. Young is an incredible play in all lineup builds.
Top Value: Terance Mann at Charlotte Hornets – $4,000 DraftKings
Staying in the Hawks’ backcourt, Terance Mann has been a valuable asset off the bench since joining the Hawks at the trade deadline. Mann has played 16 games for the Hawks this year, but has seen an increase in his playing time over the last 11 games. During that time, he is averaging 11.7 points per game, while shooting a superb 53.7% from the field. He has shot less than 50% from the field just twice in the stretch.
Priced at $4,000 with point guard and small forward eligibility, Mann is easy to fit into all formats tonight. He has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus and is drawing the fifth-most projected ownership at 25%. Mann is a cheap way to get exposure to the best offense on the slate. He has displayed 30+ DraftKings point upside and has scored double-digit points in eight of his last 11 games. Mann is a strong value play.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at LA Clippers – $8,800 DraftKings
The second-best game environment on the slate is this battle between the Cavaliers and Clippers. The Cavaliers are 4.5-point road favorites and have won 16 of their last 17 games to hold a league-best 56-11 record. They have the second-highest team total at 118.25 points despite the Clippers ranking second overall in defensive rating this season. Evan Mobley is questionable after missing the last game, which would provide a significant boost to Donovan Mitchell, who continues to lead this team in scoring this season.
Without Mobley on the floor this season, Mitchell has a team-high +2.69% usage rate increase (per our Trends tool). He leads all shooting guards in projected ceiling and is averaging 40.5 DraftKings points per game. Mitchell is the most popular Cavaliers player, but is only drawing 17% projected ownership tonight.
Top Value: Dyson Daniels at Charlotte Hornets – $6,900 DraftKings
Back to the Hawks we go with Dyson Daniels, who continues to lead the league with a career-high three steals per game. In his first season with the Hawks, Daniels has been more than just a steals merchant. He is averaging career highs across the board with 13.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game while shooting a respectable 47.9% from the field. Daniels has been lethal on both ends of the floor this season.
The Hornets are a favorable matchup for Daniels because they rank seventh in turnover rate at 14.7 per game. This game will be fast-paced with plenty of opportunities for Daniels to fill up the stat sheet offensively and defensively tonight. Priced under $7,000, Daniels has the second-highest projected ceiling at the shooting guard position and the fifth-highest projected Plus/Minus on the entire four-game slate.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Brooklyn Nets – $10,800 DraftKings
Jayson Tatum had a mediocre performance against a difficult Heat defense last game, but posted three straight games with a positive Plus/Minus before that. Tatum continues to lead a loaded Celtics team in points, rebounds, and assists per game. The only issue with Tatum is that he is questionable to play with a knee injury. Jaylen Brown has already been ruled out, which would benefit Tatum greatly if he were able to suit up. He has a +5.4% usage rate increase without Brown on the floor. Keep an eye on Tatum’s status.
The Celtics are an absurd 13.5-point home favorites against the Nets, who rank 24th in defensive rating and have won just two of their last 12 games. The Celtics have also basically wrapped up the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. With not much to play for, it would not be surprising if they sat Tatum tonight.
Top Value: DaQuan Jeffries vs. Atlanta Hawks – $4,000 DraftKings
Despite another lost season for the Hornets with a 17-50 record, they have won three of their last five games. DaQuan Jeffries has started each of the last four games and has a positive Plus/Minus in each game. During that time, Jeffries is averaging 11.5 points and 21.4 DraftKings points per game. Nearly 70% of Jeffries field goal attempts have come from distance over that four-game stretch. He is a sharpshooter.
Jeffries is on his fifth team in his fifth year in the league. He has been tossed around looking for a home. He may have found one with the Hornets, averaging a career-high in points and minutes per game. Priced at $4,000 and projected to play around 33 minutes tonight, Jeffries is a strong value option in all formats.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Golden State Warriors – $11,500 DraftKings
Leading this four-game slate in projected ceiling by a wide margin is Giannis Antetokounmpo. With enough value on this slate, Giannis is drawing the second-highest projected ownership at 32%. He is coming off a triple-double against the Thunder with 21 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists. It was his second game in a row with over 60 DraftKings points. That is hard to fade on a four-game slate tonight.
Giannis is second in the league in scoring with 30.4 points and sixth in rebounding with 12.1 rebounds per game. He is shooting 60% from the field and is a matchup nightmare for any opposing team. Giannis will have his hands full against the Warriors, who rank ninth in rebounding percentage and third in points allowed in the paint at 45.5 per game. Regardless of the matchup, it is difficult to ignore Giannis’ ceiling.
Top Value: Georges Niang at Charlotte Hornets – $4,200 DraftKings
Currently second in projected Plus/Minus on this slate is Hawks power forward Georges Niang. He has been a true boom-or-bust fantasy producer recently. In his last four games, Niang has three where he recorded 20+ DraftKings points and one game where he literally had zero. He has displayed a ceiling, but is the riskiest value play on the Hawks. However, Niang is still pulling nearly 25% projected ownership.
Since being acquired at the trade deadline, Niang is averaging a career-high 12.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game. He is shooting 37.9% from behind the arc, which bodes well against the Hornets, who are allowing opponents to shoot 39.4 3-pointers per game, which is the fourth-highest in the league. Priced at $4,200 with a 20% projected usage rate, Niang is a risky but great value play in all lineup builds.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Onyeka Okongwu at Charlotte Hornets – $7,500 DraftKings
If you can’t tell, the Hawks are the key to the slate. Onyeka Okongwu is the top ceiling center option to target with Clint Capela out, based on his recent performances. With Capela out the last two games, Okongwu recorded back-to-back massive double-doubles, averaging 19.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, three blocks, two assists, and two steals, accumulating 49.6 DraftKings points per game. He has been a monster.
The Hornets have had solid interior defense this season despite their pitiful record. That is all due to their center Mark Williams, who also looks like a strong option to target tonight. Okongwu and Williams will be a fantastic battle of young centers. However, with Capela out and getting more playing time, Okongwu is simply the better option. He is a great mid-range play in this high-total game environment.
Top Value: Moussa Diabate vs. Atlanta Hawks – $3,200 DraftKings
No player comes close to the value that Moussa Diabate provides tonight. He has by far the highest projected Plus/Minus and ownership on the slate at 45%. The Hornets backup center is projected to play 26 minutes with Miles Bridges ruled out due to rest. With his high minutes projection and 16% usage rate projection, Diabate is an incredible value player to target and a cheap way to get exposure to this game.
Fitting in Giannis at $11,500 is made possible due to Diabate’s $3,200 price tag. These two will be paired in several lineup builds tonight. In his first season with the Hornets, Diabate is averaging a career-high in both points and rebounds per game, while shooting 58.5% from the field. The Hawks have been poor in interior defense, allowing 50.4 points per game in the paint, which is the sixth-highest in the league.
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