The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $9,600 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander‘s status up in the air with an injury, Stephen Curry is the top ceiling point guard in a loaded position. Curry remains exceptionally cheap on DraftKings at $9,600, which is resulting in an 85% Bargain Rating. He continues to lead the league with 4.8 3-pointers made per game which also makes him look better on DraftKings. Curry has also made at least four 3-pointers in nine of his last 12 games.
The Warriors are nine-point favorites against the Pelicans, who are playing on a back-to-back. This game features the highest total on the slate at 235 points, as the Warriors have an implied total of 122 points. The Pelicans are allowing 36 3-pointers attempted per game this season, which is tied for the seventh-highest in the league.
It’s a great spot to back the sharpshooting Curry, especially on DraftKings, where he offers great value.
Top Value: Tyus Jones vs. Orlando Magic – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Since Ja Morant is doubtful, Tyus Jones is easily the best value guard option on the slate. He has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel as his fantasy production skyrockets with Morant off the floor. In 18 games without Morant this season, Jones is averaging 17.6 points, 7.9 assists, 1.9 steals, and 39.1 DraftKings points per game while shooting 51.5% from the field and 43.5% from behind the arc.
Even with Morant out, the Grizzlies are still seven-point home favorites against the Magic, implied to score 119 points. Jones has scored double-digit points in 12 consecutive games, with five double-doubles over that time. For the second straight year, Jones is leading the league in assist-to-turnover ratio with 5.49. Jones needs to be a priority on both sites as he remains in the lower mid-range salary providing a ton of value with upside.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Atlanta Hawks – $8,600 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Donovan Mitchell is another stud who looks like a great value on DraftKings at $8,600. He is nearly $1,000 cheaper than FanDuel and has an 89% Bargain Rating on DraftKings tonight. In his first year with the Cavaliers, Mitchell is averaging a career-high 27.4 points per game. He has scored 31 points in two of his last three games, and despite most of his production comes from scoring, Mitchell has also recorded five or more rebounds in five-straight games.
The Cavaliers have won nine of their last 11 games as they are climbing the Eastern Conference playoff ladder and getting closer to the No. 3 seed. They are two-point road favorites against the Hawks, who rank 22nd in Defensive Rating this season. Leading the team in scoring, Mitchell should thrive in this matchup as this is also an up-tempo spot as the Hawks rank seventh in Pace. There is plenty to love about this matchup for Mitchell.
Top Value: Svi Mykhailiuk at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,900 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Svi Mykhailiuk has played 30+ minutes in three-straight games and has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in each of those contests. The Hornets are dealing with a ton of injuries as the regular season starts to wind down. They are playing without LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Mark Williams, while Gordon Hayward is doubtful, and Kelly Oubre Jr. is questionable. Mykhailiuk is projected to play 33 minutes and is an elite value option.
The Hornets are double-digit road underdogs, but with so many injuries, they will provide a lot of value opportunities. The Thunder rank 10th in Defensive Rating this season, but they also rank second in Pace (101.9) while allowing 116.2 points per game. Despite playing minimal minutes early on, Mykhailiuk has made at least one 3-pointer in 10 consecutive games. Prioritize Mykhailiuk on FanDuel, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating at $4,200.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Washington Wizards – $10,400 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
After missing his last game, Jayson Tatum is expected to return tonight as the Celtics are two games back from the Bucks for the No.1 seed in the Eastern Conference. He has the highest projected ceiling on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our model. Tatum has a little bit of a boom-or-bust fantasy profile when the Celtics are fully healthy, but the ceiling is very high as he is averaging a career-high 30.1 points and 8.9 rebounds per game.
The Wizards continue to drop like a rock in the Eastern Conference, as many of their starters are out again tonight. They rank 21st in Defensive Rating as the Celtics, who rank third in Offensive Rating, should have no issue taking care of business on the road. Coming off of three days of rest, Tatum will be ready to go. His projected ownership of 10% and lower on DraftKings and FanDuel is very intriguing on this six-game slate.
Top Value: Jalen Williams vs. Charlotte Hornets – $6,700 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Jalen Williams is quickly becoming a great asset for the Thunder as the rookie is averaging 13.7 points per game, which is tied for the third-highest on the team. He is shooting 51.9% from the field this season and has scored 20+ points in eight of his last 13 games. Williams has recorded double-digit rebounds and assists over that time, so his salary rising is warranted due to how well he has been playing to keep the Thunder’s season alive.
Williams has started to make a few more 3-pointers, but most of his production comes from dominating the paint. This is a perfect matchup for Williams to fill it up, especially if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is unable to play. The Hornets rank 20th in Defensive Rating and 21st in points allowed in the paint, with 52.1 per game. He is a play that looks really good right now and could look even better if Gilgeous-Alexander is out tonight.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam vs. Miami Heat – $9,200 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Leading the Raptors in scoring and rebounding, Pascal Siakam has been playing extremely well as of late. Over his last six games, Siakam has stuffed the stat sheet averaging 24.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game. During that time, he also averaged 49.9 DraftKings points with a 25.9% usage rate per game. Siakam has been great all season, averaging a career-high in scoring, assists, and field goal attempts with 18.6 per game.
The matchup against the Heat features the lowest total by far on the slate at 219 points, as the Raptors are 2.5-point home favorites. Both teams rank in the bottom six of Pace, so this will likely be another low-scoring game. In their three previous meetings this season, the average total points scored was 208.3 points per game. Despite a tough matchup and a projected low-scoring game, Siakam is worthy of exposure as a pay-up option.
Top Value: Xavier Tillman vs. Orlando Magic – $5,100 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Given his power forward and center eligibility on FanDuel, Xavier Tillman is a strong value given his double-double upside. With Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke out for an extended period of time, Tillman has been a steady center for the Grizzlies frontcourt. He has started in a career-high 24 games while shooting 62.3% from the field in those contests. He has a few double-doubles and looks poised for another strong game in this matchup.
The Magic have been steady on the glass and defending the paint, but given the opportunity that Tillman will get, he can easily pay off his salary on both sites. He has also done a great job defensively, as the Grizzlies rank third in Defensive Rating overall. Tillman had two blocks and three steals in his last game while also stuffing the stat sheet with 15 points, eight rebounds, and three assists. We’ll take a similar performance again tonight.
Center
Top Ceiling: Kristaps Porzingis vs. Boston Celtics – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Losers of 10 of their last 13 games, the Wizards have basically played themselves out of the play-in tournament. To make matters worse, Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma continue to sit out due to injuries, and it feels like only a matter of time until Kristaps Porzingis is shut down for the rest of the season. However, for now, Porzingis remains an elite option as he has a team-high +5.7% usage rate with Beal and Kuzma off the floor this season.
Porzingis is averaging a career-high 23 points per game while shooting 49.4% from the field and 38.2% from behind the arc. The Wizards have lost both games against the Celtics this season, but Porzingis has played well in his limited minutes. He is averaging nearly a double-double with 19 points and 8.5 rebounds per game, shooting 55.6% from the field in their two meetings, despite only playing 27 minutes a night in those matchups.
Top Value: Nick Richards at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,700 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Last but certainly not least, the best value on the entire slate is Hornets center, Nick Richards. With Mark Williams out, Richards is projected to play 29 minutes and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is also projected to be the highest-owned player despite being center-only eligible. The third-year pro is averaging career-highs across the board while finally getting substantial playing time.
Surprisingly the Hornets have won three of their last four games after beating the Mavericks in back-to-back games. Williams played in three of those four games and averaged a double-double with 11 points and 14 rebounds per game. Playing against a small Thunder frontcourt, Richards should be in line for another double-double tonight. The Thunder rank 26th in Rebounding Percentage (48.6%), providing a significant edge to Richards.
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