The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Detroit Pistons – $9,600 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Trae Young is cheaper than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight but has the much easier matchup against the Pistons. Young had six-straight games with 25+ points before he put up a ridiculously low nine points in his last game against the Spurs. Don’t be intimidated by that outlier performance, as he is averaging a double-double for the first time in his career with 26.7 points and 10 assists per game.
The Hawks are double-digit home favorites with the highest implied total on the slate at 125.5 points. The Pistons have the league-worst record at 16-56 and aren’t doing a great job of playing spoiler, as they have lost 14 of their last 15 games. They rank 28th in defensive rating while allowing 118.5 points per game.
It’s a great matchup for Young to bounce back and capture another double-double with the potential for a very high ceiling performance.
Top Value: Killian Hayes at Atlanta Hawks – $6,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Staying in the same game, Pistons point guard Killian Hayes has been a key surprise when given extended minutes. Even when the Pistons are losing games, Hayes is playing heavy minutes. He is projected to play 34 minutes tonight and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel among all point guards. Hayes may not be a salary saver, but he provides a significant amount of value, given his upside.
Over his last five games, Hayes is averaging 14 points and 9.8 assists per game with three double-doubles. During that time, he is playing 34.6 minutes per game, despite the average margin of victory being 15.4 points per game. It is safe to say that Hayes is blowout-proof, which is great considering the Pistons are 13.5-point road underdogs. Consider Hayes on both sites as a strong value, even though he is only point guard eligible.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: CJ McCollum vs. San Antonio Spurs – $8,000 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
CJ McCollum and the Pelicans were able to bounce back against the Rockets last game after losing to them two nights prior. McCollum stuffed the stat sheet with 26 points, six rebounds, five assists, two steals, and two blocks on his way to scoring over 50 DraftKings points. He will get a chance to replicate that performance tonight against the Spurs as double-digit home favorites with an implied total of 122 points.
The Spurs continue to rank last in Defensive Rating (119.1) while allowing a league-high 122.1 points per game. McCollum has a great chance to outperform his salary on both sites. With Zion Williamson off the floor this season, McCollum has a team-high +1.9% usage rate with a 27.4% assist percentage. McCollum provides a great mix of value and upside in the best matchup any player can face – the San Antonio Spurs.
Top Value: Franz Wagner vs. Washington Wizards – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
Franz Wagner had a near triple-double in his last game with 21 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists despite shooting 0 of 8 from behind the arc. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the shooting guard position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and has small forward eligibility on both sites. Wagner will benefit from the absence of Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Isaac, as he is second on the team in scoring while averaging a career-high 18.7 points per game.
This matchup against the Wizards has one of the lower totals on the slate at 225 points but is also very intriguing due to the close spread. The Magic are one-point home favorites as they have proven they can compete with anyone on any given night. The Wizards rank 20th in defensive rating, so this is an exploitable matchup for Wagner. Priced in the mid-range, Wagner is a player who can score fantasy points in a variety of ways.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Once again, the ownership projections on Clippers stars Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George remain low despite a home matchup against the Thunder, who rank second in the league in pace this season. This total is climbing as the Clippers are 6.5-point favorites after winning five of their last six games. They have won all five games that Leonard has played in, as he is averaging 49.3 DraftKings points per game over that time while shooting 53.1% from the field.
Leonard has made double-digit field goals in each of his last three games while playing an absurd amount of minutes lately. He may sit out back-to-backs, but when Leonard plays, he is averaging 38.6 minutes per game in his last nine games. The Thunder surprisingly rank in the top 10 in defensive rating, but they allow 116.4 points per game, given how fast they play.
This is a great spot to take a low-owned pay-up option with a high ceiling.
Top Value: Trey Murphy III vs. San Antonio Spurs – $6,200 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Trey Murphy III is another Pelicans player worth getting exposure to in this cupcake matchup against the Spurs. Prioritize Murphy on FanDuel, where he is priced under $6,000, which is resulting in a 95% Bargain Rating. He has played 37+ minutes in seven of his last eight games. The only one he played fewer was a blowout victory over the Trail Blazers, where Murphy scored a career-high 41 points while making nine 3-pointers.
Murphy has been shooting the lights out ever since the calendar has flipped over to March. He is shooting 43.2% from behind the arc while making 3.9 3-pointers per game. Murphy has made three or more 3-pointers in every game except for one over the last nine games.
The Spurs are allowing a league-high 50.4% from the field and 39.2% from downtown. Murphy can get scorching hot, and what a great matchup to do just that tonight.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Sacramento Kings – $10,500 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
Celtics star Jayson Tatum has the highest projected ceiling on DraftKings and FanDuel in our NBA Model tonight. His salary has started to dip across the industry despite averaging 53.2 DraftKings points per game in his last nine games. Tatum throws up a fantasy dud every once in a while but is averaging a career-high 30 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game. He should have no problem filling it up against the Kings defense tonight.
Even with the third-best record in the Western Conference, the Kings rank 25th in defensive rating, allowing 118.3 points per game, which ranks as the third-highest in the league. They also get torched in the paint allowing 53.8 points per game, which bodes well for Tatum, who leads the team in drives with 11.3 per game. This six-game slate is lacking studs, but Tatum fits the bill for the best pay-up option on the slate in a fantastic high-scoring matchup.
Top Value: Keita Bates-Diop at New Orleans Pelicans – $3,700 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
The Spurs are coasting into the offseason but did go 3-3 in their last home stand beating the Nuggets, Hawks, and Magic. However, the injury bug continues to cause issues as Devin Vassell, Zach Collins, Jeremy Sochan, Charles Bassey, and Keldon Johnson are all out, while Devonte’ Graham is questionable. That will open the door for a ton of value, including Keita Bates-Diop, who has the highest projected Plus/Minus among power forwards on DraftKings.
Bates-Diop has seen sporadic minutes recently but is projected to play 25 minutes tonight, making him one of the best value options on the slate. The Spurs will likely get run out of the gym against the Pelicans on the road, but Bates-Diop has scored 20+ DraftKings points in 11 of his last 13 games. Prioritize him on DraftKings, where he is only $3,700 with a 98% Bargain Rating, which is one of the highest on the slate.
Center
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. Boston Celtics – $10,400 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
Unlike Jayson Tatum, Domantas Sabonis has seen his salary on both sites steadily rise due to his recent play. Sabonis has been on a Nikola Jokic-like run with four triple-doubles in his last eight games averaging 20.3 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game over that time. Adding Sabonis at the trade deadline last season was a risky move, but it has paid dividends as he is averaging a team and career-high in both rebounds and assists.
The Celtics frontcourt looks to be getting Robert Williams back after he has missed eight consecutive games. Adding Williams will help defensively, but Sabonis is playing so well recently that it may not matter. This is a back-to-back for the Kings, but that hasn’t slowed down Sabonis this season, who is averaging a double-double with 19 points and 13.9 rebounds per game while shooting 62.8% from the field on no days rest.
Sabonis leads the slate on both sites with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings and 12 on FanDuel.
Top Value: Sandro Mamukelashvili at New Orleans Pelicans – $4,200 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Sandro Mamukelashvili is another Spurs value who looks amazing on this six-game slate. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in nine consecutive games, as he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Mamukelashvili has well over 20 DraftKings points in three-straight games and should easily succeed again with his 28 minutes projection. That is more than enough time for him to exceed value.
The Pelicans rank middle of the pack in points allowed in the paint this season while also ranking seventh in rebounding percentage. This isn’t the easiest spot for Mamukelashvili, but playing for nearly 30 minutes, it will be easy for him to pay off his price tag.
With so many injuries to the Spurs frontcourt, if Mamukelashvili can stay out of foul trouble, he has a chance to break this slate. His power forward eligibility on FanDuel makes him an easy fit in all lineup builds.
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