The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving vs. Orlando Magic – $9,600 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
When Irving has actually played this year, he’s been a DFS superstar. He managed to log 42.5 points on DraftKings in just 30 minutes against the Sixers and nearly 70 points when afforded 37 minutes the game prior. The Magic have certainly improved on the defensive side since the break, but Irving has conquered far tougher tasks. Our model sets Irving as the highest-ceiling option on the slate at point guard.
Top Value: Tyus Jones vs. Indiana Pacers – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
With Ja Morant listed as doubtful here, Jones should be in line for heavy minutes against a weak Indiana defense. He has exceeded 20 fantasy points in back-to-back games given just an average of 18 minutes, so the possibilities are truly delicious for the former Duke Blue Devil given the projected 31 minutes.
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $9,600 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Okay, I lied. If you’re playing on a site where Booker is eligible at point guard, then he’s the point guard with the highest ceiling. At shooting guard — where he is universally available — he is a high-ceiling option as well at nearly 60 fantasy points. We continue to see a high Usage Rate for Booker in wake of the injury to Chris Paul, and as a result, the sharpshooter was able to manage 58 fantasy points last time out against the Lakers in 32 minutes.
Top Value: RJ Hampton vs. Brooklyn Nets – $3,400 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
While Gary Harris is listed as available for this one after dealing with a right knee contusion, Jalen Suggs remains out, which should keep Hampton on the court for plenty of time. He returned better than 5X against the Sixers in 27 minutes last time out, and we have him projected as a near-7X play should he play the expected 27 minutes.
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler vs. Detroit Pistons – $8,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Butler will be licking his lips with the Pistons up next — a team which has ranked 19th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break. The Heat wing has a ceiling of nearly 60 fantasy points here and has gone for 38 or more fantasy points in three straight. He’s a bargain at under $9K.
Top Value: Dillon Brooks vs. Indiana Pacers – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
We covered earlier that the Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant here, which means someone has to score the ball for Memphis. Brooks has averaged 0.2 more points per minute with Morant off the floor this year — tied for the best mark on the team — and had an impressive return from injury against the Thunder when he went for over 25 fantasy points in 25 minutes. He’s a top value option on this slate.
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Orlando Magic – $11,100 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
Durant has been nothing short of a machine lately and enters this matchup with the Magic fresh off a 77.5-fantasy point outing against the Knicks. Our model sets his ceiling over 65 points yet again, which seems all too attainable if he’s going to see the 30%+ Usage Rate he’s been regularly getting over the last five games.
Top Value: Brandon Clarke vs. Indian Pacers – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
The Pacers are a bit stronger inside these days since trading away Domantas Sabonis, but not quite strong enough to lead us to shy away from Clarke. He’s been good for a positive Plus/Minus in four of his last five games and has average better than 30 DraftKings fantasy points in just 24 minutes over the last two games. With Ja Morant out, he’ll surely get more of the ball as well.
Top Ceiling: Bam Adebayo vs. Detroit Pistons – $8,200 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
This slate isn’t crawling with great high-upside centers, but Adebayo definitely fits the mold. Our model has his ceiling at nearly 60 fantasy points, which makes sense given the matchup. Detroit is ranked sixth-worst in field goal percentage against in the paint, and the Heat enter as hefty favorites.
Top Value: Andre Drummond vs. Orlando Magic – $5,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
There isn’t a true bargain bin center on this slate, so the top value option probably equates to Drummond. Our model sets him as a solid 6X play given the minutes he’s seen with LaMarcus Aldridge sidelined and the big man scoring an average of over 30 fantasy points in his last three. We have him set for the same 26 minutes he saw against New York, which should be more than enough for him to hit value.