The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Jalen Brunson vs. Utah Jazz – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
After another 30-point performance from Jalen Brunson last night, he is the ceiling point guard to target on this five-game slate. Brunson has been on a tear recently, scoring 30 or more points in seven of his last eight games. His only miss was in a Knicks 38-point rout over the Nuggets. During that eight-game stretch, Brunson is averaging 31.8 points per game with a 33.2% usage rate. He is shooting 53.2% from the field, while attempting 20+ field goals in seven of those eight contests.
Julius Randle remains out for the Knicks, while OG Anunoby is in danger of missing a second-straight game with an injury. Welcome to the Brunson show. The Jazz are also on the second leg of a back to back after giving up 147 points to the Nets. They continue to rank 23rd in defensive rating and eighth in pace, making this another exploitable matchup for Brunson.
Top Value: D’Angelo Russell at Atlanta Hawks – $7,100 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
The Lakers did not put up much of a fight against the Rockets last night, losing by 16 points. They will stay on the road for this back to back against the Hawks. With both teams ranking in the top six in pace, this matchup has the highest total on the slate at 247.5 points. Getting exposure to this game is a necessity, and doing so with Lakers point guard D’Angelo Russell is a great way to save salary. Russell is projected to be the highest-owned point guard on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Russell has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in seven consecutive games and has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the position. During that seven-game stretch, Russell has scored 20+ points in each game while averaging 27.1 points per game. The Hawks rank 27th in defensive rating this season, so Russell will have no trouble filling up the scoreboard tonight.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Jaylen Brown vs. Indiana Pacers – $8,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Jaylen Brown is coming off another near triple-double last night where he finished with 22 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists. That was the third game in his last five where Brown recorded over 48 DraftKings points. Playing at home, Brown is averaging 23 points per game while shooting 51.7% from the field and 39.7% from distance. The Celtics are seven-point home favorites and implied for 125.75 points. Expect an up-tempo game environment with the Pacers ranking second in pace.
Celtics forward Kristaps Porzingis is questionable after missing last night’s game due to an ankle injury. Keep an eye on his status the closer we get to lock. With Porzingis off the floor this season, Brown has a +2.54 DraftKings Plus/Minus, which is the second-highest on the team. Even if Porzingis plays, this is a great spot for Brown at relatively low ownership tonight.
Top Value: Gary Trent at Chicago Bulls – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
The Toronto Raptors are decimated with injuries to their backcourt and have lost nine of their last 10 games. Immanuel Quickley is doubtful to play, while RJ Barrett has already been ruled out. That will open the door for more opportunities for shooting guard Gary Trent Jr. Nearly all of Trent’s production comes from scoring the ball. In the Raptors’ lone victory over their last 10 games, Trent erupted for 28 points while shooting 10-for-13 from the field and 8-for-9 from downtown.
The Bulls defense is susceptible to the perimeter shot, which bodes well for Trent tonight. They have allowed opponents to attempt 38.8 three-pointers per game, which is the second-highest in the league. Trent is shooting a career-high 41.8% from behind the arc with over 55% of his attempts coming from deep. He will get plenty of opportunity with in this matchup.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Scottie Barnes at Chicago Bulls – $8,800 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Sticking with the Raptors offense, Scottie Barnes will be another beneficiary of the Barrett and Quickley absences. Barnes may not have the highest ceiling to his small forward peers, but he is in the best spot by far due to the Raptors’ injuries and the elite matchup against the Bulls. Barnes can stuff the stat sheet in a variety of ways, and his skill set will be on full display in this matchup. He is leading the team in steals and blocks while averaging a career-high in points, rebounds, and assists.
The only downside to this matchup is the Bulls playing at the league’s slowest pace at 96.87. This game has a slate-low 227-point total with the Bulls favored by nearly seven points. Barnes leads the healthy Raptors players in usage rate by a wide margin and will need to have a big game to keep them competitive. He is a little too cheap across the industry tonight.
Top Value: Donte DiVincenzo vs. Utah Jazz – $5,700 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
Donte DiVincenzo was the best value play on the slate last night, and he has a great chance to be the best on this five-game slate. DiVincenzo scored 28 points while shooting 10-for-22 from the field, which was the second-highest point total in his career. He is projected for an insane amount of ownership on both sites tonight, at over 55% on DraftKings and over 70% on FanDuel. DiVincenzo is a staple in cash games and is basically a plug-and-play tournament option at his cheap price tag.
In his first year with the Knicks, DiVincenzo is averaging a career-high 11.8 points per game while shooting 41.8% from deep. He has scored double-digit points in 15 of his last 16 games. Due to the Knicks’ injuries, DiVincenzo will get another great opportunity against the Jazz. He posted a season-high 29.5% usage rate last night with Randle and Anunoby out.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis at Atlanta Hawks – $9,600 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
The pricing discrepancy of Anthony Davis between DraftKings and FanDuel tonight is absurd. Make sure to prioritize Davis on DraftKings where he is $1,700 cheaper with a slate-high 13 Pro Trends. Davis has a 97% Bargain Rating and ranks third in the league in double-doubles with 38. He has shown a little bit on inconsistency, but this price point is simply too cheap.
The status of LeBron James is in jeopardy on this second leg of the Lakers’ back to back. The 39-year-old logged 37 minutes last night and 48 minutes on Saturday night. If James is out, that would make Davis look even better on DraftKings. Historically, Davis has displayed an incredible ceiling playing without James. The Hawks have allowed 55.7 points per game in the paint this season, which is the fourth-highest in the league. This is a great matchup regardless if James is able to play.
Top Value: Josh Hart vs. Utah Jazz – $5,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Josh Hart is another Knicks value player that is worth getting exposure to on this slate. Hart stuffed the stat sheet with 12 rebounds, eight points, and seven assists last night, recording 33 DraftKings points for the second-straight game. He played 39 minutes and is projected to play at least 35 in this matchup tonight. Despite being a little cheaper than DiVincenzo across the industry, Hart is coming in at nearly half the projected ownership. They can also be deployed together on this small slate.
Hart has scored double-digit points in three of his last six games while averaging 9.3 rebounds per game over that time. He has sneaky double-double and potentially triple-double upside in this matchup against the Jazz’s poor perimeter defense. If Anunoby is out yet again, Brunson, DiVincenzo, and Hart will be a popular trio to build around tonight.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid at Golden State Warriors – $12,000 DraftKings, $12,300 FanDuel
Joel Embiid can only miss a few more games before he is ineligible for all of the NBA post-season awards. Expect him to suit up tonight on the road against the Warriors after missing the first leg of the back to back last night. When Embiid plays, he dominates. Eight days ago, Embiid had a 70-point game where he finished with 105.5 DraftKings points. He has the highest projected ceiling in our Tournament model for DraftKings and FanDuel and is worth every penny of his salary if he suits up.
In his two games against the Warriors last season, Embiid averaged 40 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists while shooting 52.2% from the field. He had a 42% usage rate with the Warriors not having an answer to his dominance. Embiid continues to lead the league in usage rate and scoring this season and will be the top pay-up option on the slate if he can play tonight.
Top Value: Nikola Vucevic vs. Toronto Raptors – $7,500 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
Priced under $8,000 on both sites, Nikola Vucevic is the most popular center option on the slate. Not only are Zach LaVine and Patrick Williams out for the Bulls, but the Raptors may be without their starting center Jakob Poeltl for the 11th-straight game. Without Poeltl, the Raptors are a terrible interior defensive team. They have allowed 68 points per game in the paint in their last three games, and their rebounding percentage has dropped to 49.3%, which ranks 22nd in the league.
This is the fourth meeting between these two teams, with the Bulls looking to win the season series 3-1. In their previous three games, Vucevic is averaging a double-double with 14.7 points and 11.3 rebounds per game. This is a great matchup for the Bulls center to record another double-double. Vucevic’s mid-range salary makes him accessible in all lineup builds.
