The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Boston Celtics – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Being a nine-point home underdog, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a perfect boom-or-bust tournament play on tonight’s small three-game slate. In a season where so many studs are averaging career-highs scoring the ball, we can add Gilgeous-Alexander to that list. He is averaging 30.8 points per game, which is over six more per game than last season, as he is still shooting an impressive 49.9% from the field. Gilgeous-Alexander is the reason the Thunder have 15 wins.
Over the last four games, Gilgeous-Alexander has posted a variety of fantasy scores. During that time, he has a high of 73.5 and a low of 28.5 DraftKings points, with two games falling right in between. This is a tough matchup for Gilgeous-Alexander as the Celtics rank seventh in Defensive Rating. However, in their only meeting this season, he scored 37 points while dishing out eight assists for 57 DraftKings points.
It’s a difficult spot for Gilgeous-Alexander, but he is still the top ceiling point guard on this small slate.
Top Value: Mike Conley vs. Sacramento Kings – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
The Jazz have fallen below .500 for the first time all season, as they have lost four-straight games. They are 2.5-point home favorites tonight to get back on track against the Kings, who just lost to by one point on the road on Friday. This game features the highest total on the slate at 241.5 points. The Kings rank fourth in Pace and 23rd in Defensive Rating this season, making this a great spot to get exposure to the Jazz players in a bounce-back game.
One of the best values on the slate is veteran point guard Mike Conley. He has played 30+ minutes in four-straight games as backup point guard Collin Sexton will be out for at least a week due to a hamstring injury. Over that four-game stretch, Conley is averaging 12 points, eight assists and over 30 DraftKings points per game.
Priced under $6,000 on both sites, Conley is a cheap way to get exposure to this very high total game tonight.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Jaylen Brown at Oklahoma City Thunder – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
Another boom-or-bust ceiling guard is Celtics’ Jaylen Brown. He is significantly cheaper than Gilgeous-Alexander on both sites, but Brown has put together some very high-scoring games. Brown is averaging a career-high 27.1 points paired with a 31.5% usage rate. He is shooting 49.5% from the field while also averaging a career-high 7.3 rebounds per game. Over the last four games, Brown has made double-digit field goals in each game while averaging 32.6 points per game.
It is rare to see a nearly double-digit road favorite in this league, but the Celtics have been that good. They lead the league in scoring, Offensive Rating, and Net Rating this season. The Thunder also rank third in Pace, so this is a matchup where Brown can get out in transition and continue his scoring streak. There are several Celtics players worth getting exposure to in this game, but Brown is in the mix as one of the favorites at a weak shooting guard position.
Top Value: Marcus Smart at Oklahoma City Thunder – $6,000 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Sticking with the Celtics, Marcus Smart has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate for FanDuel. Smart is leading the Celtics in both assists and steals this season. He has recorded at least one steal in 14 of his last 15 games while averaging 1.8 per game during that time. His career-high 7.4 assists per game are 1.5 more than his previous career-high. Playing alongside Brown and Tatum has allowed Smart to be the main facilitator.
Smart can continue being a thief in this matchup, as the Thunder are allowing 8.1 steals per game, which ranks as the fifth-highest in the league. That is the main reason Smart looks exceptional on FanDuel. Playing so many minutes against a backcourt that has a high usage rate, Smart will be expected to bring a strong defensive presence.
Prioritize Smart on FanDuel, but he is a great way to differentiate from Brown and Jayson Tatum.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Oklahoma City Thunder – $10,700 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
Speaking of Jayson Tatum, he continues our Celtics chatter as the top ceiling small forward on the slate. Tatum continues to take that next step in his career, as he is now the best player on the best team searching for his first MVP award. Tatum is averaging a career-high 30.9 points, which is four more per game than last season. The Tatum and Brown combination has been fun to watch and a nightmare for opposing defenses and figuring out who to play in our fantasy lineups.
Over the last nine games, Tatum has scored either 60+ DraftKings points or in the 40s, which makes him another boom-or-bust player on this small slate. Tatum is second behind Giannis Antetokounmpo in our models for the highest ceiling on the slate. If Robert Williams is unable to play for the Celtics, Tatum has a very high chance of recording a double-double as the Thunder rank 26th in Rebounding Percentage this season.
Picking between Tatum and Brown is difficult, but it helps because their position eligibility and salaries are so different.
Top Value: Malik Beasley vs. Sacramento Kings – $4,600 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Malik Beasley is another Jazz value player worth playing in this great matchup against the Kings. Most of Beasley’s fantasy production comes from scoring the ball, as he averaged 14 field goal attempts and 15.1 points per game in the month of December. His first season with the Jazz started off slow, but Beasley is really starting to pick it up as of late as he ranks third in scoring on the team behind Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson, who are averaging 20+ a game.
Using our On/Off Tool, Beasley has a team-high +1.3 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a +1.1% usage rate in 630 minutes with Collin Sexton off the floor this season. His minutes become stable with no Sexton as he is scoring 3.3 more points per game in the seven games that Sexton has missed. Similar to Conley, Beasley is another way to get cheap exposure to this 241.5-point game total.
He looks great on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Houston Rockets – $10,400 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
No one really comes close to the ceiling that Giannis Antetokounmpo has on this slate. He is projected for nearly 10 more fantasy points on both DraftKings and FanDuel than Jayson Tatum. Giannis is probable to play after missing the last game against the Wizards, while Jrue Holiday is also probable after missing three-straight games due to an illness. Make sure to monitor our news dashboard the closer we get to lock, but both players look like a full go tonight.
Even though Holiday is back, Khris Middleton remains out, which has shown to boost the ceiling for Giannis. His usage rate climbs to 39.5% while he is averaging 33 points and 12.3 rebounds without Middleton this season. The Bucks are eight-point home favorites against the Wizards, who just beat them by 23 points last game without Giannis and Holiday.
No one touches the usage rate and production from Giannis on this slate, which is why he is projected to be the highest-owned player.
Top Value: Harrison Barnes at Utah Jazz – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Kings forward Harrison Barnes has seen a dip in his production this season with the Kings as they drafted rookie Keegan Murray and added Kevin Huerter in free agency. With the decrease in production, Barnes has also seen his salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel fall into a place where now is the time to buy low. It helps that Huerter and Malik Monk are both questionable to play, which would provide more of a ceiling for the veteran forward.
Barnes is still averaging over five rebounds per game for the third-straight season. He isn’t averaging over 16 points per game anymore, but he can still provide value, especially in this matchup against the Jazz. Not only has the Jazz record plummeted, but so has their defense. They rank 27th in Defensive Rating (114.9) entering tonight’s games.
There are several value plays worth getting exposure to in this cheap game so add Barnes to that list.
Center
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at Utah Jazz – $10,500 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Despite a right-thumb fracture, Domantas Sabonis has yet to slow down outside of his ball-handling duties. Sabonis has recorded a double-double in 18-straight games and has a great chance to keep that trend going tonight against the Jazz. Even in a difficult matchup last game against the Grizzlies, where Steven Adams grabbed 23 rebounds, Sabonis was still able to produce a double-double scoring 18 points and grabbing 14 of his own rebounds.
Since returning from the injury, Sabonis is averaging 25.7 points and 11.7 rebounds per game while shooting 72.7% from the field and making 4 of 6 3-pointers. In 10 of his last 13 games, Sabonis has put up over 50 DraftKings points. Priced over $10,000 on both sites, Sabonis has shown a high ceiling despite his thumb injury. The Jazz are also allowing a league-high 56.2 points per game in the paint this season, so expect Sabonis to feast in the paint.
Top Value: Kelly Olynyk vs. Sacramento Kings – $5,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Celtics center Robert Williams has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, but he is questionable to play due to knee injury management. With his status up in the air, Kelly Olynyk is next in line for the highest Plus/Minus making yet another Jazz value who looks great tonight. The journeyman Olynyk is playing for his fourth team in his last three seasons, but may have found a home with the Jazz as he has started in all 35 games this season.
In his first season with the Jazz, Olynyk is averaging 12.6 points per game while shooting 51.2% from the field. We have Olynyk projected to play over 30 minutes and be one of the best values on the slate. It helps that he has both center and power forward eligibility on both sites. However, make sure to prioritize Olynyk on DraftKings, where he is $800 cheaper than FanDuel and has a 90% Bargain Rating.
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