The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Los Angeles Lakers – $10,200 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Despite a relatively disappointing game last night, we’re going right back to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In the Thunder’s seven-point loss to the Lakers, Gilgeous-Alexander recorded 24 points, six assists, and three rebounds while shooting 9-for-19 from the field. However, it was the first time in his last six games that Gilgeous-Alexander shot less than 57% from the field. In his previous five games, he averaged 32.4 points per game on 65% shooting. Expect a bounce-back game tonight.
The Thunder are staying put in Los Angeles to take on the Clippers in the second leg of their back-to-back. They are 5.5-point road underdogs in this matchup with contradicting styles of play. The Thunder rank sixth in pace, while the Clippers rank 25th.
There are limited pay-up options at the guard position, making Gilgeous-Alexander the clear-cut stud to go to.
Top Value: Reggie Jackson at Philadelphia 76ers – $3,900 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
There was potential for big news with the Denver Nuggets, but all of their starters have been upgraded to probable for tonight’s game. However, even with everyone currently projected in, Reggie Jackson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the point guard position on DraftKings. His sub-$4,000 salary is resulting in a 95% Bargain Rating. Jackson is also projected for the second-highest ownership on the slate for DraftKings. This is a great spot for the Nuggets backup guard.
Value is a little tough to come by on this three-game slate, which is why we have to look into the bench. Even off the bench, he has scored double-digit points in four of his last seven games while averaging 9.6 points per game over that time. He nearly had a double-double with nine assists against the Pistons, proving he has an upside worth getting exposure to.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Sacramento Kings – $9,100 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
After back-to-back 30-point games, Devin Booker is the top shooting guard on the slate. Booker is no longer just reliant upon his scoring. He is averaging a career-high 7.7 assists and 4.9 rebounds per game this season. His defensive stats still come and go, but those peripherals make Booker stand out among the rest of his peers. Booker is another guard that needs to be prioritized on DraftKings, where his $9,100 salary is resulting in an 88% Bargain Rating and a total of 9 Pro Trends.
This matchup against the Kings is by far the best game environment on the slate. The total has risen to a slate-high 243.5 points, with the Suns implied for 124.75 points. The Kings are an exploitable matchup on the perimeter, which sets up well for Booker. They are allowing opponents to shoot 39% from behind the arc, which is the second-highest mark in the league.
Top Value: Malik Monk at Phoenix Suns – $6,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
On the other side of this matchup, Malik Monk is popping in our NBA Model as a strong value play. Despite coming off the bench, Monk is averaging a career-high 15.3 points and 5.4 assists per game. Leading the Kings’ second unit, Monk has the freedom to run the offense as he pleases. He also has the second-highest usage rate on the team at 24.6%, behind De’Aaron Fox. Monk is coming off one of his best all-around games with 28 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists.
The Suns are a middle-of-the-road defensive team that plays at the fifth-slowest pace in the league. In what is projected to be more of a track meet tonight, Monk will have plenty of opportunity to exceed his salary. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in three of his last four games while scoring 20+ in each contest. He is a strong play in all formats tonight.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Paul George vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $8,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are neck-and-neck in projected ceiling, with George cheaper on both sites than his teammate, making him the better play price-sensitive between the two. George is drawing the highest projected ownership on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings. His sub-$8,500 salary across the industry is simply too cheap on this small three-game slate. He is a consistent fantasy producer with a ceiling that can sneak him into the optimal lineup on any given night.
The Thunder are currently tied for fourth in defensive rating at 111.1. However, on such a small slate, we can’t get nitpicky with so few options. George’s recent play and cheap price tag negates the difficult matchup. The last game against the Timberwolves snapped George’s 13-game streak of 20+ points. He will get back on track scoring the ball in this matchup.
Top Value: Jalen Williams at Los Angeles Clippers – $7,300 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Jalen Williams isn’t necessarily a cheap value option, but he does have the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the small forward position on DraftKings and the fifth-highest on FanDuel. Williams is impossible to ignore, given how dominant he has played recently. Over his last seven games, Williams has averaged 20.4 points, 6.4 assists, and 5.7 rebounds per game while shooting 63.2% from the field and 52.9% from downtown. His season stats are nearly just as good in his second year.
In his only game against the Clippers this season, he performed more of the same in his 29 minutes of action. He shot 6-for-11 from the field, scoring 13 points with seven assists and four rebounds. He is second on the team in scoring and third in assists. Williams is a great way to get exposure to the Thunder in the mid-range, especially given his recent performances.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Sacramento Kings – $9,200 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Due to his recent games, Kevin Durant has seen his salary dip across the industry. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and FanDuel and is projected for nearly 50% ownership on both sites. We have seen Durant have ceiling games and take a back seat with the Suns fully healthy. Those inconsistencies brought his salary down a little too low for this three-game slate. Since returning from injury, he hasn’t topped 46 DraftKings points, but we know the ceiling is there.
Durant continues to lead the Suns in both scoring and usage rate with 30.3%. His shooting efficiency remains remarkably high, with 52.6% from the field and 46.9% from long distance. He scored 28 points on 9-for-14 shooting in his only matchup against the Kings this season. Durant will be very popular, but it is deserving after his price dip on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Value: Nicolas Batum vs. Denver Nuggets – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Nicolas Batum has been given more and more opportunities for the 76ers and has returned value in four consecutive games. Over that time, Batum has averaged 6.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 23.3 DraftKings points per game. That may not seem like it’s that impressive, but it is paying off his salary, which is all we want in a value play. Batum does look a little better on FanDuel with the $300 discount. He has small forward and power forward eligibility with an 89% Bargain Rating.
He is capable of stretching the floor, which is beneficial for the 76ers now that their big man is back in the middle. He displayed his upside with four 3-pointers and 14 points against the Kings last Friday night. The Nuggets can be exploited on the perimeter, which makes this a positive matchup for Batum, but the ultimate selling point is the cheap price tag tonight.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Denver Nuggets – $11,400 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic will battle tonight in what will be a clash of the titans. The slight edge goes to Embiid, who has the highest projected ceiling on the slate. After missing three games due to a sprained knee, he picked up right where he left off. In his first game back, Embiid recorded a 41-point, 10-rebound double-double. He shot 12-for-21 from the field and had a game-high 43.3% usage rate. He has already become one of the most dominant big men in recent history.
Embiid continues to lead the league in scoring and usage rate this season, with career-highs in both categories. Even with Jokic controlling the paint, the Nuggets are allowing 49.9 points per game in the paint, which ranks in the middle of the pack. With value likely to open up throughout the day, getting exposure to Embiid at the top of the pricing is the best plan of attack.
Top Value: Daniel Theis vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Priced at $4,400 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Daniel Theis is arguably the best value on the slate. With Ivica Zubac out for the Clippers, Theis drew his first start of the season in the last game and played 22 minutes. Theis only had three points and four rebounds, but that was also against the best defensive team in the league with a massive frontcourt. This matchup will be much easier with the Thunder’s small frontcourt, which ranks 28th in rebounding percentage this season at 47.5%.
Theis has proven to have upside in his second-to-last game, where he finished with 34 DraftKings points. In 22 minutes, he stuffed the stat sheet with seven points, five rebounds, four assists, three blocks, and two steals. With a low usage rate, Theis needs to be able to rack up several stats to pay off his salary, and this is the perfect matchup to do that tonight.
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