The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard vs. Washington Wizards – $11,100 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Playing on a back-to-back, Damian Lillard is easily the top ceiling point guard option on this five-game slate. Over the last 10 games, Lillard is averaging 38.2 points per game while shooting 52.1% from the field. His salary has skyrocketed on both sites, but it is more than deserving. There are only two players with a salary above $10,000 on both sites – Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The best part is there is enough value to fit both studs into lineups tonight.
The Trail Blazers are 3.5-point home favorites against the Wizards with the highest implied total on the slate with 119.5 points. This game also features the highest overall total at 236.5 points as the Trail Blazers rank sixth in offensive rating this season. In competitive games, Lillard is playing 40 minutes a night. Giannis comes first in terms of priority, but Lillard is a close as he is playing in the best game environment on the slate tonight.
The over on Underdog Fantasy looks intriguing for Lillard’s points, rebounds, and assists (48.5).
Top Value: Payton Pritchard at Milwaukee Bucks – $3,400 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
Being able to fit Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo will be rather easy when most of the value will come from the Celtics. Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart are already ruled out, while Jayson Tatum is doubtful, and Robert Williams is questionable. Pritchard will likely start as he is projected for 30 minutes, providing a ton of value being under $4,000 on both sites. He has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings at only $3,400.
Pritchard has been in and out of the Celtics rotation all season but has shown upside when given the opportunity. Most notably, in a game against the Heat, Pritchard played 42 minutes when just Brown and Smart were out. In that game, he stuffed the stat sheet with 10 points, seven rebounds, and four assists while accumulating 26.75 DraftKings points.
A similar outcome is on the table tonight, as Pritchard is a great salary saver to fit in the studs.
Top Ceiling: Derrick White at Milwaukee Bucks – $7,100 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
Derrick White is arguably the best play on the entire slate. Using our On/Off Tool with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart off the floor, White has a +12.3% usage rate and a team-high +14.5 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Priced in the midrange on both sites, White has the highest ceiling at the shooting guard position tonight. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings.
The Celtics are nearly double-digit road underdogs playing without three and potentially four starters. It’s not the best matchup for them as the Bucks rank second in defensive rating (109.7), entering tonight’s games. Regardless of the difficult spot, it is impossible not to flood lineup builds with a plethora of Celtics players. W
hen running our optimizer, the top projected lineup has four Celtics players in it for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Value: Malcolm Brogdon at Milwaukee Bucks – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Another Celtics guard worth getting exposure to is Malcolm Brogdon, who is the favorite for the Sixth Man of the Year award. He has yet to start a game all season but ranks third on the team in scoring behind Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. In his first season with the Celtics, Brogdon has seen a decrease in his production across the board while playing a career-low 24.9 minutes per game. Minutes shouldn’t be an issue tonight, as the Celtics need his scoring.
With the three starters off the floor this season, Brogdon has a team-high +13.1% usage rate climbing up to 36.2%. The ball will be in his hands plenty, and this price tag is very inviting. Having the best three Celtics guards being priced sporadically will help lineup builds. The Celtics have won 14 of their last 16 games when Brogdon plays.
They may not win tonight, but they’ll find a way to keep this competitive, making Brogdon another elite Celtics value play.
Top Ceiling: Paul George vs. Golden State Warriors – $9,300 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Paul George has been fairly consistent, despite the Clippers being a rollercoaster most of this season. The eight-time All-Star leads the Clippers in points, assists, and steals in his fourth season with the team. Kawhi Leonard may be back, but for some reason, George is still only $8,300 on FanDuel, resulting in a 98% Bargain Rating. George has 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, which is second only to Giannis Antetokounmpo for this five-game slate.
The Clippers are 8.5-point home favorites against the Warriors, who continue to lead the league in Pace (103.1) this season. The Warriors are playing on a back-to-back after beating the Wizards by nine points at home last night. Their Defensive Rating drops from 113.9 to 118.3 when Stephen Curry has been unable to play.
Prioritize George on FanDuel, given the value, but he is a great way to get different at lower ownership on DraftKings as well.
Top Value: Matisse Thybulle vs. Washington Wizards – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Priced at the stone minimum on DraftKings and close to it on FanDuel, Matisse Thybulle was fantastic in his first game with the Trail Blazers. He only played 26 minutes but had 14 points, six rebounds, three blocks, two assists, and one block. Thybulle finished with 34 DraftKings points while shooting 5 of 9 from the field and 4 of 6 from behind the arc. It is hard to expect that type of performance again with Thybulle, but at this salary, that isn’t needed.
Thybulle was only receiving around 10 minutes recently with the 76ers, so getting 26 in his first game for the Trail Blazers as a starter was great to see. With Jerami Grant and Jusuf Nurkic still out, expect Thybulle to start again, as he is projected to play over 30 minutes. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel.
Outside of the Celtics, Thybulle is easily the best value play on the slate for both sites tonight.
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Boston Celtics – $12,700 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
By far the most expensive and highest ceiling player in our NBA Model on this five-game slate is Giannis Antetokounmpo. He snapped a streak of 11 consecutive double-doubles last game but remained dominant with 35 points shooting 13 of 25 from the field in only 30 minutes. Giannis is third in the league in scoring and leads all players with 12.3 rebounds per game. At only $12,000 on FanDuel, Giannis looks like a steal, given his 97% Bargain Rating.
With Jayson Tatum doubtful, Robert Williams questionable, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart out, the Bucks are in prime position to get within a half-game of the Celtics for the best record in the league and Eastern Conference. Giannis will feast against the Celtics’ backups. He also plays much better at home, averaging 35.5 points per game while shooting 57.1% from the field compared to 29.2 per game and 50.7% shooting on the road this season.
Lock in the Greek Freak as the best pay-up option by far on this slate.
Top Value: Grant Williams at Milwaukee Bucks – $4,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Grant Williams is the last of our parade of Celtics value. He is also questionable to play due to elbow swelling, so make sure to monitor our news dashboard to make sure Williams is able to suit up. Williams looks like a great value option if he is able to play after three consecutive games scoring over 26 DraftKings points per game. If, for some reason, Williams can’t play, look at his teammate Al Horford who is priced a little higher on both sites.
In his fourth season in the league, Williams is averaging a career-high in minutes, points, rebounds, and assists. He is shooting over 40% from behind the arc for the second-straight year, with 58.7% of his field goal attempts coming from downtown.
Williams is projected to play 30 minutes and be another great source of value.
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at Phoenix Suns – $9,600 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Despite being cheaper than Pascal Siakam on both sites, Kings center Domantas Sabonis gets the nod as the top ceiling center option on this slate. Sabonis has fouled out in back-to-back games, but that hasn’t stopped him from being a very consistent pay-up option. He has recorded four-straight games with over 42 DraftKings points and has a double-double almost every night. Sabonis actually leads with league with 44 double-doubles this season.
Sabonis is averaging an 18-point, 12-rebound double-double for the fourth consecutive season. He has been the focal point of the Kings offense as he is also averaging a career-high 6.9 assists while shooting a ridiculous 61.1% from the field. The Suns rank inside the top 10 in both points allowed in the paint and Rebounding Percentage, but Sabonis can accumulate fantasy points from all over the court.
He is another way to get different as a pay-up option.
Top Value: Drew Eubanks vs. Washington Wizards – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Drew Eubanks is the top center value as he continues to provide upside for the Trail Blazers without Jusuf Nurkic and Jerami Grant. In 12 games as a starter this season, Eubanks is averaging 7.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 21.2 DraftKings points per game. He has played over 25 minutes a night and is projected for the same in this matchup against the Wizards. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the center position for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Wizards rank 20th in points allowed in the paint with 51.1 per game this season, so this is a great spot to take the Trail Blazers big man. He has power forward and center eligibility on FanDuel, making him very easy to fit into lineup builds. Despite taking a step back in his production from last year, Eubanks still has the upside to achieve a double-double at this very cheap price tag.
He is a great pivot off of the other Celtics value plays.
Get $100 Sign-up Bonus!