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NBA DFS (Tuesday, Apr. 4): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

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The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.

Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.

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Point Guard

Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $10,600 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel

The top two point guards on this large 13-game slate are playing against each other – Stephen Curry and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The nod goes to Curry as the Warriors are eight-point home favorites, implied for 125.25 points. Curry is coming off of an 8-for-28 shooting night last game, but his ceiling remains through the roof. He continues to lead the league with 4.9 3-pointers per game while shooting 42.5% from behind the arc.

Curry is leading the Warriors with 29.5 points but has also contributed with peripherals averaging 6.3 assists and a career-high 6.1 rebounds per game. This matchup with the Thunder is projected to be a track meet as both teams rank first and second in Pace this season. In their first three games, the average total has been 256 points!

Curry is averaging 39 points per game against the Thunder. Expect another barn burner tonight.


Top Value: Jordan Goodwin vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $4,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel

Leading the way with the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings is Wizards combo guard Jordan Goodwin. The Wizards have mailed in their season as Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, and Monte Morris are all out. Goodwin will likely come off the bench again, but he played 25 minutes last game and stuffed the stat sheet with 11 points, seven rebounds, and six assists on his way to scoring over 30 DraftKings points.

The Wizards are 13-point home underdogs against the best team in the league. The Bucks rank third in Defensive Rating and are still playing for the No. 1 seed, so expect them to come to play. Luckily Goodwin is basically blowout-proof as he is once again projected to play 25 minutes off the bench. Prioritize Goodwin on DraftKings, where he is only $4,000 with a 96% Bargain Rating.

He also has the highest projected ownership on the slate.

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Shooting Guard

Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. San Antonio Spurs – $9,600 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel

Winners of five-straight games, the Suns could pretty much lock up the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference with a victory tonight. It won’t take much for a Suns win, as they are 18-point favorites against the Spurs, who are basically sending out a JV team. Averaging a career-high 28 points per game, Devin Booker is the clear-cut top shooting guard on DraftKings and FanDuel, even with Kevin Durant healthy and expected to play in this matchup.

The Suns have an implied team total of 127.25 points, as the Spurs rank last in Defensive Rating (119.6) while allowing a league-high 122.8 points per game. Primarily a scoring-dependent fantasy producer, Booker had 10 assists last game proving his upside with a double-double. Playing against the worst defensive unit in the league, Booker has a very high ceiling.

He may not get as many minutes as other studs, but Booker can fill it up in a hurry.


Top Value: Svi Mykhailiuk vs. Toronto Raptors – $6,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel

We go from one of the best values on DraftKings to one of the best values on FanDuel with Hornets shooting guard Svi Mykhailiuk. Acquired at the trade deadline, the Hornets have been forced to play Mykhailiuk for several minutes due to their injuries to LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre Jr., and Gordon Hayward, who are all out tonight. Dennis Smith Jr. is also questionable, as Mykhailiuk is projected to play 34 minutes tonight.

Over the last six games, Mykhailiuk is averaging 15.8 points per game while shooting 49.3% from the field and 44.4% from behind the arc. He has gotten more comfortable in this role as he scored a career-high 26 points last game, shooting 10-of-17 from the field and 5 of 9 from downtown. His last game was also against the Raptors, who the Hornets will play tonight.

A repeat performance would be great, especially with a $5,400 salary on FanDuel.

Small Forward

Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Philadelphia 76ers – $10,400 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel

With the No. 1 seed still in sight, the Celtics have the tiebreaker in case the Bucks slip up with their two-game lead. In a potential semi-final matchup with the 76ers, this game is going to be a slugfest with a 227-point total. Jayson Tatum has been on an absolute tear over his last five games, averaging nearly a double-double with 35.4 points and 8.6 rebounds per game while shooting 60.2% from the field, making double-digit field goals in each game.

What separates Tatum from the rest of the studs is there is a good chance that he will be playing without All-Star teammate Jaylen Brown. Brown is questionable, so make sure to keep an eye on his status the closer we get to lock. In 11 games without Brown this season, Tatum is averaging 32.4 points per game which isn’t too far from his season average.

Despite a difficult matchup, Tatum is a fantastic contrarian pay-up option, especially if Brown is ruled out.


Top Value: Donte DiVincenzo vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel

Donte DiVincenzo is coming off of one of his best games of the season, recording a double-double with 18 points and 13 rebounds against the Nuggets as he shot 8 of 12 from the field. Andrew Wiggins is expected to return very soon but has already been ruled out for tonight. DiVincenzo leads all small forward eligible players with the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, as he is projected for around 20% ownership on both sites.

As previously mentioned, this Warriors and Thunder game is expected to be another shootout. The total has climbed to 243.5 points, which is by far the highest on the slate. DiVincenzo is a great way to get exposure to this high total with a low-priced option. He may not have 44.75 DraftKings points like last game, but DiVincenzo is a great value play in a fantastic game environment, and it helps he has dual eligibility on both sites.

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Power Forward

Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Washington Wizards – $11,400 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel

The Bucks need to win a few more games to solidify the top seed in the Eastern Conference. This means we will get a heavy dose of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is playing without Khris Middleton tonight. Not only is Middleton out, but the Wizards are sitting everyone, including their only rim protector Kristaps Porzingis. Giannis will have no problem against this weak Wizards frontcourt that has allowed 62 points per game in the paint in their last three games.

The Bucks also have Grayson Allen out, which is another scorer who won’t be able to suit up. With Middleton and Allen off the floor this season, Giannis has a +3.8 DraftKings Plus/Minus differential while having a 40.4% usage rate. In his last game without Middleton, Giannis had a triple-double with 38 points, 17 rebounds, and 12 assists.

Expect the Greek Freak to dominate the paint and have another ceiling performance against the Wizards.


Top Value: Kelly Olynyk vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $6,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel

Kelly Olynyk is one of the better values on DraftKings and FanDuel, as he ranks in the top three projected Plus/Minus on both sites at the power forward position. A big reason why is the Jazz are playing without Walker Kessler and Jordan Clarkson, while Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton are both listed as questionable. The Jazz are pretty much eliminated from playoff contention, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Markkanen and Sexton sit, making Olynyk look even better.

After a great start, the Jazz have fallen off the face of the Earth. They still rank eighth in Offensive Rating, averaging 117.1 points per game. The Lakers rank fourth in Pace, so this should be an up-tempo game environment. There will be a lot of opportunity for Olynyk to rack up fantasy points as the Lakers allow 93.9 field goal attempts per game, which is the most in the league.

Olynyk has been awesome in his first year with the Jazz and is in a great spot tonight.

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Center

Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis at Utah Jazz – $10,900 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel

There is simply no need for Nikola Jokic to play against the Rockets tonight, making the ceiling center to target Anthony Davis. The Lakers center has been dominant in his last three games, with 38+ points in each game while averaging 11.7 rebounds per game over that time. In a great matchup against the Jazz and playing this well, it makes more sense to get exposure to Davis than an injured Jokic and Joel Embiid in a difficult matchup.

The Jazz may likely be playing without Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler, which opens the floodgates for a massive ceiling game from Davis. Even when both are healthy, the Jazz are allowing 53.1 points per game in the paint this season, which is tied for the fifth-highest in the league. With a projected ownership under 3% on both DraftKings and FanDuel,

Davis is the best contrarian pay-up option on the slate in this spot.


Top Value: Drew Eubanks at Memphis Grizzlies – $5,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel

The Trail Blazers are yet another team with nearly all of their starters out for the remainder of the season. Fellow starting big Trendon Watford is also questionable, which would provide Drew Eubanks will an even bigger ceiling. Eubanks has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the center position on both sites, as he has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in six consecutive games. He has averaged 30.75 DraftKings points in his last six games.

Eubanks will have a lower usage rate but has a great chance to record a double-double, given that he will be playing close to 30 minutes. The Grizzlies are one of the tougher opponents in the league, as they rank second in Defensive Rating and tied for eighth in Rebounding Percentage. Regardless with this much playing time and opportunity, Eubanks is a little too cheap on both sites, and his dual eligibility on FanDuel makes him easier to fit into all lineup builds.

The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.

Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Point Guard

Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $10,600 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel

The top two point guards on this large 13-game slate are playing against each other – Stephen Curry and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The nod goes to Curry as the Warriors are eight-point home favorites, implied for 125.25 points. Curry is coming off of an 8-for-28 shooting night last game, but his ceiling remains through the roof. He continues to lead the league with 4.9 3-pointers per game while shooting 42.5% from behind the arc.

Curry is leading the Warriors with 29.5 points but has also contributed with peripherals averaging 6.3 assists and a career-high 6.1 rebounds per game. This matchup with the Thunder is projected to be a track meet as both teams rank first and second in Pace this season. In their first three games, the average total has been 256 points!

Curry is averaging 39 points per game against the Thunder. Expect another barn burner tonight.


Top Value: Jordan Goodwin vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $4,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel

Leading the way with the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings is Wizards combo guard Jordan Goodwin. The Wizards have mailed in their season as Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, and Monte Morris are all out. Goodwin will likely come off the bench again, but he played 25 minutes last game and stuffed the stat sheet with 11 points, seven rebounds, and six assists on his way to scoring over 30 DraftKings points.

The Wizards are 13-point home underdogs against the best team in the league. The Bucks rank third in Defensive Rating and are still playing for the No. 1 seed, so expect them to come to play. Luckily Goodwin is basically blowout-proof as he is once again projected to play 25 minutes off the bench. Prioritize Goodwin on DraftKings, where he is only $4,000 with a 96% Bargain Rating.

He also has the highest projected ownership on the slate.

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Shooting Guard

Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. San Antonio Spurs – $9,600 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel

Winners of five-straight games, the Suns could pretty much lock up the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference with a victory tonight. It won’t take much for a Suns win, as they are 18-point favorites against the Spurs, who are basically sending out a JV team. Averaging a career-high 28 points per game, Devin Booker is the clear-cut top shooting guard on DraftKings and FanDuel, even with Kevin Durant healthy and expected to play in this matchup.

The Suns have an implied team total of 127.25 points, as the Spurs rank last in Defensive Rating (119.6) while allowing a league-high 122.8 points per game. Primarily a scoring-dependent fantasy producer, Booker had 10 assists last game proving his upside with a double-double. Playing against the worst defensive unit in the league, Booker has a very high ceiling.

He may not get as many minutes as other studs, but Booker can fill it up in a hurry.


Top Value: Svi Mykhailiuk vs. Toronto Raptors – $6,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel

We go from one of the best values on DraftKings to one of the best values on FanDuel with Hornets shooting guard Svi Mykhailiuk. Acquired at the trade deadline, the Hornets have been forced to play Mykhailiuk for several minutes due to their injuries to LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre Jr., and Gordon Hayward, who are all out tonight. Dennis Smith Jr. is also questionable, as Mykhailiuk is projected to play 34 minutes tonight.

Over the last six games, Mykhailiuk is averaging 15.8 points per game while shooting 49.3% from the field and 44.4% from behind the arc. He has gotten more comfortable in this role as he scored a career-high 26 points last game, shooting 10-of-17 from the field and 5 of 9 from downtown. His last game was also against the Raptors, who the Hornets will play tonight.

A repeat performance would be great, especially with a $5,400 salary on FanDuel.

Small Forward

Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Philadelphia 76ers – $10,400 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel

With the No. 1 seed still in sight, the Celtics have the tiebreaker in case the Bucks slip up with their two-game lead. In a potential semi-final matchup with the 76ers, this game is going to be a slugfest with a 227-point total. Jayson Tatum has been on an absolute tear over his last five games, averaging nearly a double-double with 35.4 points and 8.6 rebounds per game while shooting 60.2% from the field, making double-digit field goals in each game.

What separates Tatum from the rest of the studs is there is a good chance that he will be playing without All-Star teammate Jaylen Brown. Brown is questionable, so make sure to keep an eye on his status the closer we get to lock. In 11 games without Brown this season, Tatum is averaging 32.4 points per game which isn’t too far from his season average.

Despite a difficult matchup, Tatum is a fantastic contrarian pay-up option, especially if Brown is ruled out.


Top Value: Donte DiVincenzo vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel

Donte DiVincenzo is coming off of one of his best games of the season, recording a double-double with 18 points and 13 rebounds against the Nuggets as he shot 8 of 12 from the field. Andrew Wiggins is expected to return very soon but has already been ruled out for tonight. DiVincenzo leads all small forward eligible players with the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, as he is projected for around 20% ownership on both sites.

As previously mentioned, this Warriors and Thunder game is expected to be another shootout. The total has climbed to 243.5 points, which is by far the highest on the slate. DiVincenzo is a great way to get exposure to this high total with a low-priced option. He may not have 44.75 DraftKings points like last game, but DiVincenzo is a great value play in a fantastic game environment, and it helps he has dual eligibility on both sites.

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Power Forward

Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Washington Wizards – $11,400 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel

The Bucks need to win a few more games to solidify the top seed in the Eastern Conference. This means we will get a heavy dose of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is playing without Khris Middleton tonight. Not only is Middleton out, but the Wizards are sitting everyone, including their only rim protector Kristaps Porzingis. Giannis will have no problem against this weak Wizards frontcourt that has allowed 62 points per game in the paint in their last three games.

The Bucks also have Grayson Allen out, which is another scorer who won’t be able to suit up. With Middleton and Allen off the floor this season, Giannis has a +3.8 DraftKings Plus/Minus differential while having a 40.4% usage rate. In his last game without Middleton, Giannis had a triple-double with 38 points, 17 rebounds, and 12 assists.

Expect the Greek Freak to dominate the paint and have another ceiling performance against the Wizards.


Top Value: Kelly Olynyk vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $6,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel

Kelly Olynyk is one of the better values on DraftKings and FanDuel, as he ranks in the top three projected Plus/Minus on both sites at the power forward position. A big reason why is the Jazz are playing without Walker Kessler and Jordan Clarkson, while Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton are both listed as questionable. The Jazz are pretty much eliminated from playoff contention, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Markkanen and Sexton sit, making Olynyk look even better.

After a great start, the Jazz have fallen off the face of the Earth. They still rank eighth in Offensive Rating, averaging 117.1 points per game. The Lakers rank fourth in Pace, so this should be an up-tempo game environment. There will be a lot of opportunity for Olynyk to rack up fantasy points as the Lakers allow 93.9 field goal attempts per game, which is the most in the league.

Olynyk has been awesome in his first year with the Jazz and is in a great spot tonight.

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Center

Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis at Utah Jazz – $10,900 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel

There is simply no need for Nikola Jokic to play against the Rockets tonight, making the ceiling center to target Anthony Davis. The Lakers center has been dominant in his last three games, with 38+ points in each game while averaging 11.7 rebounds per game over that time. In a great matchup against the Jazz and playing this well, it makes more sense to get exposure to Davis than an injured Jokic and Joel Embiid in a difficult matchup.

The Jazz may likely be playing without Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler, which opens the floodgates for a massive ceiling game from Davis. Even when both are healthy, the Jazz are allowing 53.1 points per game in the paint this season, which is tied for the fifth-highest in the league. With a projected ownership under 3% on both DraftKings and FanDuel,

Davis is the best contrarian pay-up option on the slate in this spot.


Top Value: Drew Eubanks at Memphis Grizzlies – $5,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel

The Trail Blazers are yet another team with nearly all of their starters out for the remainder of the season. Fellow starting big Trendon Watford is also questionable, which would provide Drew Eubanks will an even bigger ceiling. Eubanks has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the center position on both sites, as he has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in six consecutive games. He has averaged 30.75 DraftKings points in his last six games.

Eubanks will have a lower usage rate but has a great chance to record a double-double, given that he will be playing close to 30 minutes. The Grizzlies are one of the tougher opponents in the league, as they rank second in Defensive Rating and tied for eighth in Rebounding Percentage. Regardless with this much playing time and opportunity, Eubanks is a little too cheap on both sites, and his dual eligibility on FanDuel makes him easier to fit into all lineup builds.

About the Author

Tyler Schmidt writes NBA, NFL, and MLB content for FantasyLabs and Action Network. He has a degree in Management Information Systems and minor in Computer Science. Tyler has been playing DFS for over a decade and writing content as a freelancer for the past five years. He is a former collegiate basketball player who still holds the Minnesota State High School record for consecutive free throws with 72 that he set in 2009. Schmidt's strong knowledge of the game allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports.