The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Brunson at Miami Heat – $9,200 DraftKings
With the uncertainty of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for tonight’s slate, Jalen Brunson is the ceiling point guard worth getting the most exposure to. Playing against the Heat is not an ideal matchup, but Brunson will continue to play without Julius Randle and OG Anunoby. With those two off the floor, Brunson has a +4.67% usage rate. Not only is Brunson averaging a career-high 27.9 points, but he is averaging 6.5 assists per game and has recorded six or more in seven straight games.
Despite the Heat having the fifth-best defensive rating in the league, Brunson has had his way in this matchup this season. He is averaging 28 points per game while shooting 57.9% from the field and 41.7% from behind the arc in his two meetings with the Heat. Given the amount of questionable players at the point guard position, Brunson is the clear top option tonight.
Top Value: Devonte’ Graham at Denver Nuggets – $3,000 DraftKings
With Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, and Keldon Johnson out for the Spurs, Devonte’ Graham has crept back into the Spurs rotation. In their four-point loss against the Warriors, Graham played a season-high 18 minutes and made two of his four 3-point attempts. Graham has double-digit DraftKings points in three of his last four games played and is priced at the stone minimum of $3,000. With many top-tier pay-up options on this slate, he is a great fit for a stars and scrubs lineup build.
The Spurs are 16-point road underdogs against the Nuggets, implied for only 104.25 points. However, even in a potential blowout, Graham should get a healthy amount of playing time. He is projected to play 18 minutes again tonight and has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the guard position. When in a salary pinch, Graham is easily the best option tonight.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Houston Rockets – $9,400 DraftKings
Anthony Edwards has seen a recent dip in his production but still possesses the highest ceiling at the shooting guard position tonight. Edwards has a great chance to tap back into his ceiling tonight in a home matchup against the Rockets. The Timberwolves are 7.5-point home favorites, and Edwards has averaged 28 points per game in this matchup this season.
The Timberwolves continue to play without Karl-Anthony Towns, which boosts the outlook for Edwards. In his 14 games played without Towns this season, Edwards is averaging 27.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game with a 34.9% usage rate. With Alperen Sengun sidelined for likely the rest of the season, the Rockets do not have an interior defensive presence. Edwards, who averages 14.5 drives per game, should be able to dominate this matchup in a variety of ways.
Top Value: Jordan Poole vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $6,800 DraftKings
Jordan Poole has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in four of his last five games, with his only poor performance against the Pistons in a game that ended 96-87. In his four ceiling games, Poole is averaging 25.3 points and 8.3 assists per game while shooting 58.7% from the field and 51.7% from downtown. Priced at only $6,800, Poole has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the guard position and the third-highest on the slate. He is simply too cheap for how well he has played lately.
The Wizards have a poor 14-61 record this season, which is the second-worst in the league. They don’t have anything to play for and are 12.5-point home underdogs against the Bucks tonight. That hasn’t slowed down Poole from playing the best basketball he has all season. After a slow start, Poole has been fantastic and will play tonight without forward Kyle Kuzma.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Toronto Raptors – $9,800 DraftKings
LeBron James has suited up in three consecutive games but continues to hold a questionable tag going into tonight’s game against the Raptors. Make sure to keep an eye on his status the closer we get to lock, but James is coming off his third 40-point game of the season. He shot 13-for-16 from the field, including a perfect 9-for-9 from behind the arc, which tied his career-high. James has dominated the Lakers road trip thus far, and tonight should be no different against the Raptors.
The Lakers are 12-point road favorites, implied for a slate-high 122 points. The Raptors have a ton of injuries but are expected to get Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett back after long absences. This will still be the LeBron James show. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in 12 of his last 16 games. He would look even better if Anthony Davis is unable to play.
Top Value: Khris Middleton at Washington Wizards – $7,100 DraftKings
Since returning from injury, Khris Middleton looks like he hasn’t missed a beat. Over his last six games, Middleton is averaging 15.8 points, 7.0 assists, and 6.8 assists per game with one triple-double. He is stuffing the stat sheet in a variety of ways and continues to be a lethal shooter, with 50% from the field and 37.9% from long distance. While his minutes are ramping up. Middleton is projected to play 34 minutes tonight and will be one of the best mid-range plays on the slate.
It helps that Damian Lillard is out for the second straight game. In his last game without Lillard, Middleton poured in 21 points with six assists and six rebounds while only missing one field goal attempt all game. The Bucks are implied for 119.75 points against a pitiful Wizards defense. Middleton is a cheap and great way to get exposure to the Bucks offense tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Washington Wizards – $11,500 DraftKings
By far, the highest projected ceiling in our Player model tonight is Bucks’ superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. He is $500 cheaper than Nikola Jokic but has a much higher projection. The Greek Freak has been absolutely dominant over his last four games. He is averaging 32.5 points, 17.5 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game, with three double-doubles and one triple-double over that time. Giannis is shooting an absurd 64.3% from the field and has averaged a ridiculous 37.3% usage rate.
The Wizards are one of the best possible matchups for Giannis. They are leading the league in pace, while ranking 28th in defensive rating. The Wizards are also allowing 58.4 points per game in the paint, which is the second-highest in the league. With Damian Lillard ruled out, Giannis will look even better. He is the obvious stud to pay up for on this seven-game slate.
Top Value: Cedi Osman at Denver Nuggets – $3,900 DraftKings
Coming in with the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate is Spurs’ forward Cedi Osman, who has seen a price increase, but is still under $4,000. Osman has captured 25 or more DraftKings points in two of his last three games and is coming off 18 points last game, which is his second-highest total this season. With so many injuries on the Spurs, Osman drew his second start of the season last game. He is projected to start again tonight and is projected to play around 33 minutes.
Osman’s $3,900 price tag is drawing a 71% Bargain Rating, and he is projected to be the highest-owned player on the slate. The Spurs will likely lose by a wide margin against the reigning NBA champions, but Osman doesn’t have to do much to exceed his cheap salary. With small forward and power forward eligibility, Osman is easy to fit into all lineup builds tonight.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. San Antonio Spurs – $12,000 DraftKings
Nikola Jokic got back to his dominant ways against the Cavaliers with a 26-point, 18-rebound, 16-assist triple-double. The favorite to win his third MVP of his career has the second-highest projected ceiling behind Giannis tonight. Not only does Giannis have a great matchup, but so does the Joker. Even though rookie of the year Victor Wembanyama is leading the league with 3.4 blocks per game, the Spurs have allowed the third-most points in the paint this season with 54.5 per game.
The Spurs also rank 24th in rebounding percentage at 49.0%, which bodes well for the best big man in the league. In his two meetings against the Spurs this season, Jokic is averaging 35 points per game while shooting 62.5% from the field. That is his highest-scoring average against any team this year. Expect another ceiling performance from Jokic against the Spurs.
Top Value: Walker Kessler vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $4,700 DraftKings
Walker Kessler has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate at his $4,700 salary. The Jazz center is projected to play around 31 minutes against the elite Cavaliers frontcourt. His teammate, John Collins, is out for the second-straight game, which will provide a significant boost to Kessler’s outlook. Last game without Collins, Kessler played 32 minutes and stuffed the stat sheet with six points, eight rebounds, three assists, three blocks, and one steal for 28.5 DraftKings points.
Kessler will need to play a ton of minutes in this matchup due to the Cavaliers’ size with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. In six games without Collins this season, Kessler is averaging nearly a double-double with 8.0 points and 8.2 rebounds per game while shooting 73.3% from the field. He is way too cheap, even in a difficult matchup against the Cavaliers frontcourt.
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