The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Top Ceiling: Ja Morant vs. Houston Rockets – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Another slate, another stacked point guard position. The best spot that I see tonight is Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies hosting the Houston Rockets, who have lost 11 straight. The good thing is they are perfect for fantasy. They are playing at the league’s fastest pace this season and show no signs of playing any defense.
The Memphis Grizzlies have the highest implied total on the slate tonight with 115 points. This is a perfect bounce-back spot for the Grizzlies, who have lost three straight. Morant leads Memphis in points, assists, and steals this season. He is on an absolute tear right now. Morant has scored over 50 DraftKings points in four straight games. The third-year player is averaging a career-high in minutes, points, field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, rebounds, and steals.
It may feel weird seeing Morant this high-priced, but he is worth every penny in this matchup.
Top Value: Dennis Schroder at Cleveland Cavaliers – $6,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
I realize Dennis Schroder isn’t necessarily that cheap on the slate tonight, but I still believe he provides a lot of value. His price on FanDuel is exceptional as he has a 94% Bargain Rating. He has shown the upside to get near 50 DraftKings points like he did two games ago. The opportunities will continue to be there with Jaylen Brown sidelined.
With Brown out, Schroder has taken on a much bigger role for the Boston Celtics. He has scored 20 or more points in five straight games as he has attempted 19 field goals per game during that time. This matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers is a rematch from two nights ago when Schroder went for 28 points, but couldn’t quite get the baseline jumper to fall in order to send the game into overtime. I’ll gladly keep playing Schroder, especially at his cheap price tag on FanDuel.
There are a ton of value guards that could open up later in the day. A few to name are Anfernee Simons if Damian Lillard is out. Goran Dragic if Fred Van Vleet is out. Even the Nuggets guards if Will Barton is out. Please make sure to follow each status as we get closer to lock at our news dashboard. We will keep you updated!
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Minnesota Timberwolves – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
The price on Devin Booker on both sites has come down recently and I’m not exactly sure why. In competitive games, Booker is still playing well over 30 minutes per game and he still is averaging more than a 30% usage rate. He has yet to play a game this season where he has shot less than 15 field goal attempts. Booker is getting his shots up no matter what.
The biggest question in this matchup is can the Minnesota Timberwolves keep this game competitive so Booker can keep that usage high? The line at least suggests that they will as the Suns are a 3-point favorite tonight as this game has the highest total on the slate at 223 points. The Suns have won eight straight games as they climb the Western Conference standings. They won last night 115-89 over the Houston Rockets and Booker had 47 DraftKings points in 32 minutes.
Booker’s salary came down on both sites, but I prefer him on FanDuel where he has a 94% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Alex Caruso at Los Angeles Lakers – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Alex Caruso got a surprise start for the Chicago Bulls last night as they kept their rotation very tight. Caruso started and played a team-high and season-high 39 minutes. He only shot 2-11 from the field, but finished with seven points, nine rebounds, five assists, one block and three steals. Filling up the stat sheet like he normally does for 33.75 DraftKings points.
If Caruso is starting again tonight, he is the best value play on the slate and a must play in cash games. We do need to keep in mind that Bulls guard Coby White is back tonight and should be seeing his first action of the season. I would imagine if he plays, he will be on a minutes limit but his status is something we need to monitor. I still don’t think it will take much away from Caruso, especially at this price on both sites. The Lakers are third in pace this season, which plays right into his hands.
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Cleveland Cavaliers – $9,800 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
After a few bad games in a row, the price for Jayson Tatum on DraftKings has dipped below $10,000 again.With Jaylen Brown still out, that is a price that I will continue to pay. His last game against the Cavaliers two nights ago left a lot to be desired. He shot 8-22 from the field for only 26.5 DraftKings points which was his second lowest outcome of the season.
Tatum has shown massive upside this season with a few games over 50 DraftKings points and one game over 65, but he still has a negative Plus/Minus in nine of his 13 games. Which Tatum will we get tonight? The Celtics and Cavaliers have the lowest total on the slate at 199.5 points. I would keep Tatum as a tournament-only option tonight, but he has some of the biggest upside on the slate playing without Brown in a tightly contested game.
Top Value: Kevin Huerter vs. Orlando Magic – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
This slate is flooded with value plays already and here is another one with Atlanta Hawks wing Kevin Huerter. With De’Andre Hunter sidelined for eight weeks due to injury, Huerter will start in his place. He played a game-high 33 minutes last night, but only finished with 20 DraftKings points. It was the Trae Young show as he exploded for 42 points, eight rebounds, and 10 assists. It was a much needed with for the Hawks as they had lost six straight games prior to last night.
If I can get Red Velvet (as the cool kids call Huerter) playing 33 minutes again tonight against the Orlando Magic, sign me up. The Magic rank 26th in Defensive Rating this season as the Hawks are heavy 10.5-point favorites tonight. Two games ago Huerter erupted for 28 points as he made six 3-pointers en route to a 42.25 DraftKings performance.
I like this price tag for Huerter on both sites tonight. Sign me up for Red Velvet!
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. Chicago Bulls – $10,400 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
One of the best, but most infuriating players to roster in NBA DFS has to be Anthony Davis. He left one game due to an illness, but even included that game, Davis has a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last seven games. He has recorded two games with over 60 DraftKings points and even one game over 70 DraftKings points during that long stretch.
LeBron James will continue to sit which is great news for Davis. In eight games without James this season, Davis is averaging 26 points per game, 11.8 rebounds per game, and 20.4 field goal attempts per game. The offense runs through Davis just as long as Russell Westbrook doesn’t try and take over too much. The Chicago Bulls rank in the top five in Defensive Rating and Points Allowed this season. The matchup isn’t ideal, but Davis still has a high ceiling tonight.
Top Value: Kyle Kuzma vs New Orleans Pelicans – $6,700 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
With Bradley Beal sidelined yet again, there are two Washington Wizards players that draw my attention. Kyle Kuzma and Spencer Dinwiddie. The latter is at a stacked guard position so he may be tougher to get too. Kuzma is at a relatively weaker position and is cheaper on DraftKings. So that is who I prefer tonight, but you can easily play both.
Kuzma has recorded a double-double in both games where Beal sat this season. He is averaging 21.5 points per game, 10.5 rebounds per game, and 43.13 DraftKings points per game. This matchup against the 2-12 New Orleans Pelicans is as good of a matchup as you can get. They rank 29th in Defensive Rating as they have allowed 111.7 points per game. Kuzma is also averaging a career-high 2.6 made 3-pointers per game. The Pelicans are allowing the third-best 3-point percentage.
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Dallas Mavericks – $11,700 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
After a “dud” performance last night due to a blowout, I am going right back to Nikola Jokic tonight. The Denver Nuggets beat the Portland Trail Blazers last night 124-95, as Jokic only played 28 minutes. He did some damage when he was on the floor — Jokic finished with 28 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists shooting 11-17 from the field for 52.75 DraftKings points.
This matchup against the Dallas Mavericks isn’t very intimidating. They rank in the bottom five in points allowed in the paint with 48 per game. They also rank 29th in allowing defensive rebounds this season. Their interior defense is non-existent. The best part with Jokic is his assist numbers are back up. With Michael Porter Jr. sidelined the past three games, Jokic has averaged 9.7 assists per game. He has two triple-doubles and would’ve had a third if the Trail Blazers kept it close last night. The blowout risk should be mitigated tonight as the Nuggets play in Dallas tonight as 4.5-point underdogs.
Top Value: Tony Bradley at Los Angeles Lakers – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
The Chicago Bulls like I mentioned above ran a very tight rotation last night, but that did include Tony Bradley who played 24 minutes. Bradley only had four points, five rebounds, one block, and one steal, but playing that many minutes is going to be tough to get away from in this matchup. He will need to play, as the Lakers always seem to play big lineups.
It also helps that Bradley is PF eligible on FanDuel. Bradley is the best value play in our Tournament Model tonight. Derrick Jones Jr. served as the direct backup to Bradley last game, so they went with a small ball lineup and didn’t even play Alize Johnson or Tyler Cook. Bradley’s price makes for a great play, especially seeing that he has a 98% Opponent Rating.