The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Golden State Warriors – $12,200 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
Despite a few disappointing games in a row, we still make Doncic the highest-ceiling player on the slate at point guard, given his consistently high Usage Rate. We have him set near 40% in that department, giving him an upside of near 75 points, which is far greater than the other options on this slate.
Top Value: Derrick White vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $6,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
This isn’t a great slate to save money at point guard, so we’re going to get a little funky and play White despite his rather expensive price tag. The talented guard should see a healthy dose of minutes with Jaylen Brown out, and in 27 minutes last game, he mustered up 28 fantasy points. Our NBA Models have him as a solid 5X play given the 33 minutes we project for him.
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine vs. Atlanta Hawks – $8,000 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
LaVine has flopped in his first three games back from injury but will breathe a sigh of relief seeing in a great matchup vs. Atlanta. They’ve allowed 114.1 points per 100 possessions since the start of February, ranking 18th in the league during that time. Our model sets his ceiling over 55 fantasy points on both sites, and while you will have a few other high-upside options on FanDuel to slot in here, LaVine is the clear-cut guy on DraftKings if you’re looking to spend on a guy with a hefty ceiling.
Top Value: Malik Monk vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $4,700 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Someone needs to save the Lakers, and apparently, Frank Vogel is hoping that could be Monk given his 39 minutes in Tuesday’s loss to the Mavericks. The guard has proven capable of hitting 35+ fantasy points in the games he’s seen heavy run, and our model sets him as a 6X play on Thursday’s short slate.
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. Atlanta Hawks – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
The DeRozan train finally ran of gas against Miami earlier this week, failing to hit 30 real-life points for the first time in what seems like forever. The wing did play just 33 minutes in that one, though, and still has incredible upside here given his scoring prowess in the last month of play. Our model sets his ceiling well over 60 fantasy points with a hefty minutes projection of 37.
Top Value: Jeremy Lamb vs. San Antonio Spurs – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Lamb has settled in very nicely with his new team, going for a positive Plus/Minus in his last four games. His Usage Rate hasn’t dipped below 17% in any of those contests, and he received 26 minutes last night in a loss to the Pelicans. Given the excellent matchup against a poor Spurs defense, our model expects him to exceed 5X comfortably. That’s fantastic on a slate bereft of great value options at this position.
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $11,200 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
The Lakers have been losing a lot of games lately, but it’s no fault of James, who has been seeing a heavy dose of run and usage and producing for L.A. in the last few weeks. He’s averaged around 50 fantasy points in two straight, and against a weakened Clippers defense, our model thinks James could push towards 70.
Top Value: PJ Tucker vs. Brooklyn Nets – $3,600 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Kevin Durant returns for the Nets on Thursday, and right there to greet him will be Tucker, the “Durant Stopper” himself. The forward should be leaned upon heavily on the defensive end, meaning he’ll be out there for plenty of scoring and rebounding opportunities. Our projections are confident he’ll return you 5X.
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. San Antonio Spurs – $9,700 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
With Nikola Vucevic in a tough matchup against Atlanta and few other great options on the slate, our model makes Sabonis the highest-upside play at center with a ceiling well over 60 fantasy points. He’s already notched a 62-point outing in his short time with the Kings, and the Spurs rank 23rd in defensive efficiency since the start of February.
Top Value: Zach Collins vs. Sacramento Kings – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Paying the minimum on DraftKings for a guy projected for 17 minutes against a soft frontcourt sounds like a good idea considering there aren’t many bigs you can trust under $4,000. Our model sets Collins well over 6X on DraftKings and over 5X on FanDuel against a weak and depleted Kings frontcourt which checks in on the second night of a back-to-back.