On tap for Thursday is a seven-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $11,900 DraftKings, $12,600 FanDuel
Doncic draws a tough matchup vs. the Wolves – who are the No.1 defense in the NBA this season – but is at home and is playing without Kyrie Irving (foot). Thanks to his assist rate jumping 5.9 percentage points, Doncic scores 1.7 DraftKings PPM with Irving off the floor this season, via the On/Off Tool.
Plus, in the six starts Doncic has made sans Irving this season, he has been a stud with 66.7 DraftKings PPG. Despite the difficult matchup vs. Minnesota, the Mavs carry a high implied team total of 116.25 points – via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page – and at home this season, Doncic has been a whopping 11.2 DraftKings PPG better than when on the road.
Doncic should have another huge performance in Irving’s absence tonight and is a unanimous top option at point guard.
Top Value: Dante Exum vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $6,600 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Just like Doncic, Exum is a player who can’t be ignored tonight, with Irving on the shelf. With Irving exiting after only 13 minutes last Friday and then missing the next two tilts, Exum has flourished, averaging 40 DraftKings PPG in these last three. The former lottery pick has seen 34.7 minutes a night during this stretch and has shot the ball at a 64% clip, including 67% from beyond the arc.
Exum is scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM with Irving off the court this season, and considering Dallas has won each of these last three with him playing a huge role, the guard should continue to see an immense workload tonight. As noted above, this matchup with the Wolves is far from perfect, but Exum should still be able to exceed 5x based on sheer volume.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anfernee Simons vs. Utah Jazz – $7,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Simons has been terrific since returning from a lengthy absence due to a thumb injury, generating 45.1 DraftKings PPG in his first three starts back. While the Blazers may get Deandre Ayton (questionable, knee) and Malcolm Brogdon (questionable, knee) back tonight, Jerami Grant (concussion) remains out, and with the forward off the floor this season, Simons leads Portland with a 33% usage rate and 1.3 DraftKings PPM.
Hosting a Jazz team that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency and is on the second night of a back-to-back, Simons is a great spend tonight; that would become a very difficult fade if Ayton and Brogdon join Grant on the sidelines.
Top Value: Collin Sexton at Portland Trailblazers – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
With Jordan Clarkson (thigh) out and Keyonte George (foot) exiting after only four minutes last night, Sexton was the primary beneficiary for the Jazz, posting 42 DraftKings points across 30.2 minutes with a team-high 27.5% usage rate in a tough matchup vs. the Knicks. While Utah has yet to release their injury report, it’s relatively safe to assume George will miss tonight’s matchup vs. the Blazers.
Furthermore, Clarkson will also be unavailable, as it was reported earlier this week he will miss at least two weeks, and Lauri Markkanen (hamstring) told the media after Wednesday’s game that he doesn’t expect to play Thursday on the second night of a back-to-back set. Sexton should continue to see an excellent role with the Jazz very shorthanded and is a no-brainer at these reasonable price points.
With Markkanen, Clarkson, and George off the floor this season, Sexton’s usage and assist rates have increased by 1.8 and 5.6 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.3 DraftKings PPM for the guard.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan at Miami Heat – $8,200 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
DeRozan disappointed with only 33 DraftKings points Tuesday vs. the Nuggets, but this was on the second night of a back-to-back after going to overtime vs. the Bucks the night before and exposing the club for a season-high 62 DraftKings points. Now, with some rest on his side, DeRozan should get back on track tonight vs. the Heat and is reasonably priced for life without Zach LaVine (foot), who will miss his seventh in a row Thursday.
In the five starts DeRozan has made without LaVine this season, he is amassing 48.5 DraftKings PPG, with no performances under 42 DraftKings points. Overall, with LaVine off the court this season, DeRozan’s usage has risen a team-high 2.2 percentage points, lifting the veteran to 1.2 DraftKings PPM. As for his matchup, Miami will remain without Bam Adebayo (hip), and they are playing their second game in two nights. DeRozan should surpass 5x value in this situation and is one of the best high-end values available Thursday.
Top Value: Simone Fontecchio at Portland Trail Blazers – $5,100 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Even with Markkanen available last night, Fontecchio finished with 30 DraftKings across 30 minutes against the Knicks, who are the slowest team in the league. Now, with Markkaen expected to be rested for this second leg of a back-to-back and George likely also out after getting injured last night, on top of Clarkson being sidelined, Fontecchio should be forced into a large workload tonight, that should help him easily defeat these low salaries.
Fontecchio is averaging 23.2 DraftKings PPG with just Markkanen inactive this season and is scoring 0.9 DraftKings PPM with Markkanen, Clarkson, and George off the floor.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard vs. Golden State Warriors – $8,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
In convincing form, supplying 53.3 DraftKings PPG in his last three starts, Leonard is a great target tonight who would become an even stronger option if Paul George (questionable, hip) sits. With the ex-Pacer off the court this season, Leonard’s usage has increased 2.2 percentage points to 28.3%.
Additionally, this should be a plus matchup for the forward, with the Warriors missing Draymond Green (suspended). With Leonard a strong play to begin with, the best route is to roster the veteran and hope he receives an additional boost with George being ruled out.
Top Value: Dario Saric at Los Angeles Clippers – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Given he will likely still come off the bench, Saric shouldn’t come with much ownership tonight and is a sharp GPP target with Green suspended for the Warriors. In the last three contests Green has missed, Saric has flourished off the bench, collecting 35 DraftKings points in 25 minutes per game.
Overall, with Green off the court this season, Saric has been very efficient with 1.2 DraftKings PPM, which ranks second on the Warriors for this situation, trailing only Stephen Curry.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Brooklyn Nets – $12,000 DraftKings, $12,400 FanDuel
After getting ejected from the game Tuesday vs. the Bulls, Jokic is finally back home tonight after playing five of his last six on the road. As always with the center, Jokic has been far more productive on his home floor this season, amassing nearly 10.0 more DraftKings PPG than when competing on the road. The Nets rank 19th in defensive efficiency and the Nuggets carry the third-highest implied team total on the slate in this spot (120 points), which ties their highest implied team total of the season.
For the last 10 times Jokic has played at home with an implied team total of at least 115 points, the former MVP has been a monster with 67.1 DraftKings PPG.
Top Value: Ivica Zubac vs. Golden State Warriors – $6,400 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Zubac has been efficient against the Warriors this season, collecting 32.3 DraftKings PPG in two meetings with the squad. Green played in both of those tilts, and with the former Defensive-Player-of-the-Year now suspended, this should be an even better spot for Zubac to thrive. The center has topped 30 DraftKings points in six of his last 10 starts and is scoring right over one DraftKings PPM this season.
The Clippers’ implied team total is the fourth largest on the board tonight (118 points), and they are also 5.5-point favorites. Zubac has contributed 34.3 DraftKings PPG for the last five occasions. Los Angeles has been favorited and, as always, shouldn’t come with much ownership this evening.
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