Thursday night presents a five-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Trae Young at Brooklyn Nets – $9,900
The Hawks are only a half game ahead of the Bulls for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference and taking care of business tonight against the Nets is a must for Atlanta if they want to secure that seed. Young has topped 50 DraftKings points in eight of his last 12 games and he is amassing 1.4 DraftKings PPM since the All-Star break, with a 30.5% usage rate and league-high 44% assist percentage.
Young has exposed the Nets for 54.8 DraftKings PPG in two matchups this season and against this tanking Brooklyn team that will be without many key players, the Hawks carry the highest implied team total on the slate (122.75 points). Young is producing 54.2 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season (seven games), and he is an excellent value at less than $10,000 tonight.
Top Value: Ty Jerome at Indiana Pacers – $4,700
After clinching the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference on Tuesday, the Cavaliers will be sitting Donovan Mitchell (ankle), Evan Mobley (rest), Darius Garland (toe), and Max Strus (knee) tonight. Jerome should start at point guard in this situation and is a must-play at his cheap price tag. Cleveland hasn’t played a game with those four starters inactive this season, but with those players off the court, Jerome is scoring an elite 1.5 DraftKings PPM, which is a result of his usage rising 7.8 percentage points to a team-high 31.5%, via the On/Off Tool.
Our ShotQuality projections are slating Jerome for 32 minutes of work against this Pacers team that ranks eighth in pace and with this type of volume, the guard has a real chance of reaching 10x his salary and is one of the best value plays we have seen all season.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Memphis Grizzlies – $9,500
This matchup between the Timberwolves and Grizzlies should be a playoff-like environment and Edwards has 50 DraftKings points upside with so much at stake. Currently, Minnesota is the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference and they are only one game back of the Grizzlies for the No. 6 seed. That No. 6 seed is vital, as the top six teams in each conference avoid the Play-In Tournament.
Memphis leads the NBA in pace this season and they have slipped to 18th in defensive rating since the All-Star break, so this is a great spot for Edwards to flourish. The Timberwolves are only favored by 1.5 points and in spreads under three points this season, Edwards is scoring 45.4 DraftKings PPG (11 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Sam Merrill at Indiana Pacers – $3,300
Merrill should see a 30+ minute role tonight for the skeleton staff Cavaliers, making him an awesome punt play. With Mitchell, Garland, Mobley, and Strus off the court this season, Merrill is amassing 0.9 DraftKings PPM with a 19% usage rate.
Merrill scored 23 DraftKings points vs. the Bulls his last time out even with those four starters active, and with them now missing from the equation, he has the potential for over 30 DraftKings points, which would obviously be an incredible return at his near-minimum salary.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Mikal Bridges at Detroit Pistons – $5,700
Small forward oddly doesn’t have any players priced over $6,700 for this slate and Bridges brings the highest ceiling at the position. The Knicks can clinch the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference with a win over the Pistons tonight and New York will be without OG Anunoby (thumb) and Josh Hart (knee).
Bridges should garner a huge role in this situation and have zero issues outproducing his price tag. In the one start Bridges has made without Anunoby and Hart this season, Bridges posted 37 DraftKings points vs. the Bulls in 40 regulation minutes.
Top Value: De’Andre Hunter at Indiana Pacers – $4,300
Hunter should be one of the Cavaliers’ main player tonight and flourish. While we don’t have much data of Hunter on the floor and all of Mitchell, Garland, Mobley, and Strus off, given Hunter just joined the team at the deadline, the wing has played four games with Mitchell inactive, and Hunter has been great in those contests with 31 DraftKings PPG and a 23.9% usage rate.
With multiple other starters now also missing from the equation, Hunter brings even better upside that is by no means reflected in his $4,300 salary.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $12,700
Antetokounmpo was downgraded to questionable with an illness, but with the Bucks only holding a two-game lead over the Pistons for the No. 5 seed with three games remaining, Antetokounmpo feels like playing tonight. If that is the case, he will be the No. 1 option on the slate and easy to roster with the overabundance of elite value plays available.
With Damian Lillard (calf) out and Milwaukee fighting to hold onto that No. 5 seed, Antetokounmpo has been dominating. The superstar has notched four straight double-doubles, resulting in 75.4 DraftKings PPG. The Pelicans rank second-to-last in defensive rating and Antetokounmpo will erupt in this spot if he suits up.
Top Value: Tosan Evbuomwan vs. Atlanta Hawks – $4,000
Joining the Nets from the G-League, Evbuomwan has been taking full advantage of the expanded role he has seen as of late for this tanking Brooklyn squad. With 26.4 minutes per game in the last three, Evbuomwan is averaging 27.5 DraftKings PPG and he has scored at least 24 DraftKings points in every game.
Evbuomwan is handling a solid 18.4% usage rate during this time, and he should continue to see 25-30 minutes with Cam Thomas (hamstring), Cameron Johnson (back), and D’Angelo Russell (ankle) all still out. Proving his worth is crucial for Evbuomwan in these last few games and he should score nothing less than 20 DraftKings points tonight against the Hawks, who rank 20th in defensive rating this season.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns at Detroit Pistons – $9,700
In that lone game the Knicks have been without Anunoby and Hart this season, Towns went off for 62.5 DraftKings points vs. the Bulls. Tonight presents a tougher matchup, as the Pistons rank 10th in defensive rating this season, but Towns should still surpass 5x with an expanded role and with the Knicks looking to clinch the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference.
With Anunoby and Hart off the floor this season, Town’s usage rises a team-high 6.2 percentage points to 33.7%, resulting in an elite 1.6 DraftKings, which is also a team-high for this situation.
Top Value: Zach Edey vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $5,500
Edey has been the main beneficiary for the Grizzlies since Taylor Jenkins was fired. With 30 minutes per game in his last four, which is way above his 21.1-minute average for the season, Edey has produced 39.2 DraftKings PPG during this time. The rookie has topped 40 DraftKings points in three of these four games and the Grizzlies enter this crucial matchup with the Timberwolves as winners of three in a row.
With Rudy Gobert on the other side, Edey should continue to see heavy playing time to match Minnesota’s size and the center has a ceiling above 40 DraftKings points in this likely nail-biter.
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Pictured: Trae Young
Photo credit: Imagn
